| This applied dissertation was designed to assess the influence of human factors and experience on Predator mishaps as measured by unsafe acts and the frequency and cost of mishaps. The use of unmanned air vehicles (UAVs) in military operations is expanding rapidly, and this trend will likely continue given increases in funding for UAV development from {dollar}3 billion in the 1990s to over {dollar}12 billion for 2004-2009. High UAV mishap numbers have generated multiple reviews of unmanned operations in the past few years, but even within common platforms, different analysts attributed these mishaps to differing causes. Sixty-four Air Force Predator Class A, B, C mishaps occurred from the introduction of this system into the operational Air Force inventory in 1997 through the end of fiscal year 2006. Reports were reviewed to identify trends. Substantial changes over time were observed regarding annual mishap rates, annual mishap counts, causal factors and impacts due to experience levels. Mishap rates across the past three years dropped to less than one-half the rate across earlier years. Mishap counts, however, steadily increased, as did Predator flying hours. Early mishap reports typically cited mechanical problems and operator station design issues. Mechanical problems were much less frequently cited in the last three years. Rather, 80% of recent mishaps cited causal human error factors. Equipment interface problems were still cited as causal or major contributing factors in almost half of recent mishaps. Recent mishap reports often cited shortfalls in human factors attributes including skill and knowledge to include checklist error, task prioritization, lack of training for task attempted, and inadequate system knowledge, situational awareness focused on channelized attention, and crew coordination. These trends come in a period characterized by a rapidly growing crew force and highlight the need to revisit both individual and team Predator training objectives and consider alternative training interventions that focus on the practice and improvement of these key operator skill areas. |
