Research On Product Space And Dynamic Comparative Advantages Under The Background Of "One Belt And One Road"

After the 2008 financial crisis,the world is undergoing complex and profound changes today.The deep impact of the international financial crisis continues to emerge,the world economy is recovering slowly,and the new international trade and investment patterns and rules are undergoing profound adjustments.China put forward the "B&R" initiative in 2013,aims to strengthen infrastructure construction along the countries and Europe,Southeast Asia and other countries of trade and investment.To achieve the "B&R" strategy,international trade is a key strategy,and the theory of comparative advantage has always been regarded as an important basis for the theory of international trade.Under the impetus of economic globalization,there is a mismatch between the traditional trade theory and the deepening development of international division of labor.Static comparative advantage theory will lead developing countries to fall into the "comparative advantage trap".However,the theory of dynamic comparative advantage cannot explain the economic phenomena such as industrial hollowing-out,middle-income enigma and China’s export growth.For the theory of production factors from past research angle to study one kind of products,from the comparative advantage products to study the dynamic changes of the comparative advantage products process and potential of comparative advantage products.Product space can explain the current economic phenomena and problems based on product well,can make up for the shortage of the static comparative advantage theory,the dynamic change of revealed comparative advantage and the mechanism of motivation and general law.The theory of product space and the theory of dynamic comparative advantage provide a new research perspective and reference basis for the transformation of enterprise production structure and the cultivation of comparative advantage products,as well as the adjustment and upgrading of national industrial structure.This paper summarizes the development process of dynamic comparative advantage theory and product space theory,and analyzes the development process and characteristics of dynamic comparative advantage theory and product space theory.This paper mainly expounds the evolution trend of product space and dynamic comparative advantage of major countries along the "B&R",and conducts an empirical analysis on the influence of comparative advantage from the perspective of product space.(1)internal mechanism of the dynamic change of product spatial structure and comparative advantage;(2)product spatial distribution structure and evolution trend;(3)empirical analysis of product spatial distribution and dynamic comparative advantage;(4)how to select and cultivate the products and industries with comparative advantage in the future.Firstly,analyzed the trade and dynamic comparative advantages of China and the"B&R" countries.(1)Chinese foreign trade has witnessed a strong momentum of development in recent years,and China first surpassed the United States to become the world’s largest trading country in goods in 2013.China’s trade declined in 2015 and 2016,mainly due to the global economic downturn and exchange rate fluctuations.It also shows that the era of China relying on low cost to develop its foreign trade has ended.Chinese comparative advantage is the transformation process in the international market,the traditional competitive advantage is gradually disappearing,and the cultivation of new competitive advantage needs a process.There are relatively few primary products in China’s import and export product structure,mainly imported and exported manufactured goods.(2)China trade with the "B&R" countries is developing well and mainly concentrated in southeast Asia and Western Asia.The importers are mainly Malaysia,Thailand,Saudi Arabia and Russia,while the exporters are India and Vietnam,Russia,Malaysia and Singapore.Raw material products and some products with high technical content are the main types of commodities imported by China from countries along the "B&R".(3)China export the complexity of manufactured products obviously higher than primary products,and the gap has been widening between China’s exports manufactured goods and primary products,indicating that China’s exports have shifted from primary products to manufactured goods.Among the "B&R" countries,Russia,Kazakhstan,India and other countries have a lot of room for the growth of their comparative advantage products.The deepening of international vertical specialization plays an important role in the rapid improvement of country(region)export commodity structure.Secondly,the paper analyzed the mechanism of the effect of product space on dynamic comparative advantage and the construction and evolution trend of trade product space between China and the "B&R" countries.(1)mainly analyzed the calculation method of comparative advantage and product distance,and analyzed the relationship between product center degree and product density and change of comparative advantage.(2)through the analysis of the construction and evolution trend of the trade product space between China and the countries along the "B&R",it is found that the RCA index of the countries along the "B&R" was significantly changed in 1995 and 2016.China and the countries along the "B&R" have a higher degree of center on SITC0,SITC2,STIC6 and SITC8 products than other products.The product space performance is relatively close,while it is relatively distant from other products.(3)according to product density analysis,the density of some products in different countries fluctuated greatly over the past 20 years,but the density of most products did not differ significantly.The density of all products increased or decreased in some countries,such as Singapore and Jordan.Therefore,it is necessary for a country(region)to give play to its comparative advantages to carry out professional division of labor and production according to its unique resource endowment and input of production factors such as production technology.Finally,based on the relevant data of China and countries along the"B&R" analyzed the products spatial and dynamic comparative advantage relationship.(1)empirical analysis shows that there is a u-shaped relationship between product space and dynamic comparative advantage,the density of the previous period has a significant negative effect on the comparative advantage of the current period in the short term,but in the long term,it has a significant positive effect on the comparative advantage of the current period.The higher the density of the product,the higher the density of the product is the more likely to be clustered into similar products of the same type.(2)in the early stage of product transformation,the product density has a negative impact on the products with comparative advantage in the next stage because there is certain competitiveness and substitution between similar products or similar products.Along with the transformation of production scale expands unceasingly,absorbing and learning gathered around the product has the comparative advantages of similar products to bring the benefits of technology and knowledge diffusion,makes the product more likely next be comparative advantage,for this product,the product density significant effects comparative advantage product is positive,the closer distance current comparative advantage products products are easier to be the next comparative advantage products.(3)the products were further divided into comparative advantage products and potential comparative advantage products,and the influence of product density on comparative advantage was investigated.The structural transformation between products has a certain timeliness.With the expansion of the production scale of the product transformation,the product may not have comparative advantage.For potential comparative advantage products,in the early stage of product transformation,the probability of this product becoming a comparative advantage product is low,and in the long term,the probability of becoming a comparative advantage product is high.Therefore,a product cannot be in the state of comparative advantage or comparative disadvantage for a long time.With the improvement and diffusion of technology and knowledge and the transformation of production structure,the current product may be transformed from comparative advantage to comparative disadvantage,and some potential comparative advantage products may become next period comparative advantage products.Therefore,targeted product upgrading or change of production mode,and targeted cultivation of potential comparative advantage products,have great influence and guiding significance of products becoming comparative advantage products on the next period.The contributions:(1)the research literature about the "B&R" trade is more,but based on the product space research product space structure distribution and the dynamic comparative advantage is less between China and countries along the "B&R",this paper provides a thought for study on China and countries along the "B&R";(2)explore the selection and cultivation of products and industries with comparative advantages with product perspective between China and countries along the "B&R",provide reference basis for enterprises to organize production and export in a planned way and government departments to formulate trade and industrial strategies;(3)there are many influence factors in the dynamic comparative advantage,given the product as final carrier of production inputs factors and technology,and export products with strong competitiveness,the paper investigate the influence of the dynamic comparative advantage from export products perspective,in order to find the more inner factors influencing the dynamic comparative advantage.