Research On The Trigger And Evolution Mechanism Of Crowd Stampede

In recent years,the crowd stampede has happened frequently all over the world,resulting in huge casualties and adverse social impacts.Employing scientific and feasible measures to prevent the risk of the crowd stampede has become an urgent realistic requirement.To effectively prevent and control of the crowd stampede risk,it is necessary to have a scientific understanding of the trigger and evolution mechanism of the crowd stampede.Based on the research paradigm of 3P(physics-psychologyposition)and the comprehensive application of complex system theory and methodology,this dissertation explores the trigger and evolution mechanism of the crowd stampede and puts forward the control strategy of the crowd stampede risk.The main research contents include:(1)analyze the features of the crowd movement,the classifications of the crowd gathering and the characteristics of the crowd stampede;define the concept of the crowd stampede trigger and evolution,establish the chain relationship between the crowd stampede trigger and evolution,summarize the evolution chain of common crowd stampede;put forward the 3P research paradigm – ‘physics-psychology-position'-of the crowd stampede trigger and evolution through systematic analysis of trigger and evolution of the crowd stampede.(2)apply the Grounded Theory to analyze 20 cases of the crowd stampede in the past 10 years,extract 11 main categories by using open coding,spindle coding and selective coding analysis,and construct a conceptual model for the trigger factors of the crowd stampede;summarize 18 trigger factors from the physics,psychology and position dimensions,construct the Interpretive Structural Model,establish a multi-level trigger factor structure model,and provide the critical points and trigger conditions for trigger factors of the crowd stampede.(3)comprehensively apply a variety of methods to study the evolution mechanism of the crowd stampede on the basis of four characteristics of the evolution of the crowd stampede;analyze the evolution mechanism of the crowd stampede by combining the life cycle characteristics of events and using Bayesian network model,and judge the life cycle of the crowd stampede by using Netica software;based on the epidemic model and the complex network model,construct emotion contagion model of the crowd stampede and use Matlab software to carry out simulation and verification of the crowd stampede caused by the twice panic contagion happened in Shenzhen subway station,reveal the laws of emotion contagion in the crowd stampede;synthetically conduct video analysis and apply Pathfinder software to demonstrate the evolution laws of the abnormal behaviors;based on two main players in the crowd stampede,build evolutionary game model between pedestrian and pedestrian,pedestrian and manager during the period of the crowd stampede,analyze the action strategy of each player during the crowd stampede,and simulate and research its evolutionary mechanism by using Vensim software.(4)put forward the risk management of the crowd stampede based on the trigger-evolution chain,propose the risk prevention and control strategy from dimensions of condition,trigger and evolution;emphatically explore the two-step control including preventive risk control and rescue risk control,summarize common strategies of the crowd stampede risk management,and put forward the thinking to apply the new technology in the crowd stampede risk management.(5)by taking the Shanghai Bund stampede accident as an example,analyze its trigger mechanism from the dimension of physics,psychology and position;apply Pathfinder software to recreate the scene of the accident and analyze the evolution process of the accident through simulation analysis;construct a two-step control plan for risk prevention of the crowd gathering at Shanghai Bund,and finally propose the practical implications of the Shanghai Bund stampede accident.The highlights of the research include:(1)establish the 3P research paradigm of physics-psychology-position,and apply it to the research on trigger mechanism,evolution mechanism and prevention and control strategy of the crowd stampede;(2)construct the Bayesian network model,complex network model and evolutionary game model of the trigger and evolution of the crowd stampede;(3)put forward the risk prevention and control system of the crowd stampede and its implementation plan,emphatically introduce the two-step control strategy and its implementation.