The Mechanism And Countermeasure Of Regional Economic Growth Under The Constraint Of Carbon Emission

In recent years,China has actively responded to climate change and implemented the dual control actions of total energy and intensity of carbon emissions.It proposed the strategic goal of carbon emissions reaching the peak and reaching the peak in 2030,making the internal and external environment of economic growth undergo profound changes.It is not difficult to find out that the impact of carbon emissions on economic growth is not difficult to be found in the study of the impact of carbon emissions on economic growth.Traditional analysis also holds that under the background of global carbon emission reduction,if other conditions remain unchanged,carbon emissions constraints will have an adverse impact on potential economic growth in the short term.With the increasing attention of the global environmental issues,theoretical and practical aspects begin to consider the influencing factors of carbon emission constraints and the transmission mechanism to the economic and social development in a longer period.This paper focuses on the regional economic growth mechanism of carbon emission constraints,based on research results at home and abroad and the low carbon economy,the choice of Shandong as a typical case,based on factors specific analysis the current situation of the development of low carbon in Shandong province and the main influence on the construction of the economic growth model under carbon emission constraints,empirical study carbon emission constraints on economic growth,and put forward the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions.Firstly,this paper combs and summarizes the literatures and theories related to the relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth,and statistically analyzes the current status of low-carbon development in Shandong.From the three perspectives of structure,efficiency and policy,the paper studies the main factors that affect the development of low carbon in Shandong.Secondly,based on the analysis of the influencing factors,the carbon emissions constraint is added to the mainstream economic growth model.From the two levels of structural emission reduction and efficiency reduction,the theoretical mechanism of the economic growth pathconverging to the optimal growth path under carbon emissions constraint is analyzed.Next,the panel OLS estimation,fixed effect model,random effects model and panel quantity model are used to estimate the impact of carbon emission on economic growth.Finally,based on the actual situation of Shandong province,this paper designs the countermeasures and supporting policy of the regional economic growth for Shandong province under the restriction of carbon emission.The main conclusions of this research are: Shandong Province as the economically developed provinces,the total carbon emissions and carbon emission intensity were significantly higher than those in other developed provinces,the development level of Shandong Province,the low carbon economy despite twists and turns,but the overall trend was rising,the main influence factors including structural factors,factors and policy factors to promote efficiency.Subsequent theoretical deduction proves that,the influence of the carbon emission constraints on economic growth can create the path of the two different mechanisms: the first mechanism is through the adjustment of industrial structure,and promote the optimal allocation of resources,realize the carbon emission of "structural";the second mechanism is driven by technology upgrading industries within production efficiency,so as to improve the efficiency of resource utilization,realize the "efficiency" to reduce carbon emission.Adding the constraint of carbon emission,the effect of structural emission reduction mechanism and efficiency emission reduction mechanism jointly play a role.But in the trend,structural emission reduction effect influence machine is smaller and smaller,the effect of the efficiency emission reduction mechanism is bigger and bigger.The efficiency emission reduction mechanism really play the key role of the emission reduction effect on the level of output increases after the economic development is decoupled from carbon emission.Further empirical test shows that carbon emission has a significant positive effect on regional economic growth.From the perspective of Shandong province,carbon emission has the promoting effect of regional economic growth far more than the national average.The innovation ability has significant positive effect on economic growth,but the coefficient value is less than the coefficient of carbon emission.According to above analysis,countermeasures of the economic growth of Shandong province under the restriction of carbon emission should be positioned to control carbon emission total quantity in order to let the level of economic growth not deviate from the level of the optimal path too large.At the same time,the regional economic growth should convergence to the optimum steady-state growth,through the role of technological progress.At the present stage,it is necessary to low-carbon development of Shandong province needs to adjust the industrial structure and energy structure for the low-carbon development of Shandong province.Meanwhile,it needs to carry out technological upgrading and improvement in order to achieve efficiency emission reduction.The innovation of this paper: first,the carbon emission constraint to the traditional model of economic growth theory,reveals the realization mechanism of carbon constraints affect economic growth in the industrial structure adjustment and technology progress of the two perspectives,analyzes the carbon emissions under the constraints of economic growth path in the short and long term changes may occur,is conducive to a better understanding of China's economic transition from high growth to the profound connotation of high quality development.Second,the panel econometric model,based on the universality to the typical logic,the progressive research of China and Shandong area carbon emissions impact on the quantitative economic growth.In this process,the fixed effect model and random effect model of panel measurement research paradigm,and flexible use of quantile regression method,time and location for a robust test,fully provides carbon emission empirical evidence on the impact of economic growth.Third,the paper adopts the combination of theoretical and empirical,qualitative and quantitative analysis methods,analysis of factors affecting the supply side structural reform and development of Shandong low carbon,the path of countermeasures proposed carbon constraints to achieve regional economic growth,can play "through the typical national" role also,a demonstration reference to other provinces and cities.