Trust Research Based On Decisions Made By Multiple Roles In A Supply Chain

The market competition in 21^st century is not the competition between enterprises,but the competition between the supply chains.The one whose supply chain is more competitive will remain invincible.Therefore,in the era of supply chain competition,just enhancing the competitive capability of some enterprises is far from enough,the effort must be fully utilized to promote the overall competitive capability of the supply chain.For this purpose,the trust between supply chain enterprises contributes to reduce the transaction cost and prevent and eradicate the opportunism,and is contributive in realizing the advantage complementation,risk sharing,resource sharing,and profit sharing,and also reduces the unnecessary conflicts.Based on the manufacturing industry,we adopt quantitative study to investigate the trust relationship between the upstream and downstream enterprises.First,we use Bayesian probability estimation method to predict the optimized order quantity,and thus increase the universality and reasonability of the order quantity.Then,we adopt the roles of the agent?Benevolent or selfish?to analyze his sales strategy and the influence on other enterprises of supply chain.And moreover,we have built a fairly reasonable trust value updating mechanism,and update the loss of trust value and the acquisition of trust value to some extent.Then,in order to study the influence of information sharing on the trust between enterprises of supply chain,we build separately the optimal distribution model based on the optimized order quantity provided by the agent with the minimal risk,for the three kinds of information sharing methods between the agent and the two retailers.Lastly,we introduce the bi-directional option mechanism and distribute the risk of order quantity to each role on the supply chain,and then discuss the decision state of each role.Through a lot of research and simulation experiments,we obtain a series of analysis results and experiment results,and propose the corresponding management strategy and suggestions.In this study,we have considered the multi-role complex decision-making and the multi-period of the transaction,and the uncertainty of demand.And the aim of this study is to solve a series of difficult problems such as the manufacturer's producing,the agent's selling,and the retailer's order decision,etc.And as for the modeling and solving method,we conduct analysis with a multi-disciplinary perspective in terms of production capacity and pricing theory,risk management,bi-directional option instrument,operation research and gaming theory,and introduce the quantitative method to study the trust issues of supply chain,which is of innovative significance.This study,based on manufacturing industry,aims to provide evidence for multi-party decision,and also extends to and apply in other industries.Most of the previous studies on supply chain trust adopt quantitative method or statistical method to seek the factors that affect the change of trust,and they belong to the simple model of one-supplier corresponding to one-retailer.Compared to previous research,the main innovative points of this study are as follows.First,we propose an adaptive model that updates strategy based on trust values,which applies to the two enterprise parties of supply chain of multi-period transaction,and which can more accurately describe the regulation role of trust value between the upstream and downstream enterprises in the supply chain.Secondly,we increase the number of retailers to multiple,and on the basis of minimum risk value and information-sharing theory,have designed three models by which the agent distributes recommended order quantity,and analyze trust value's role,through the different strategies of distributing recommended order quantity adopted by the agent.Finally,we have introduced the bidirectional option mechanism to study the issue of trust in the supply chain,and process the information about manufacturer's and the retailer's recommended order quantity through the trust value model on the basis of bidirectional conditions,in order to obtain the market demand more in line with the expectations of the two parties,and describe via trust value model the trust change process under multi-period conditions,and analyze trust value's role in the option strategy.Compared with traditional qualitative research on trust issue,the trust value model established in this paper can effectively reduce the risk of demand uncertainty,and can improve supply chain partnership,and ultimately realize win-win situation,thereby enhancing the operational efficiency of the overall supply chain.