A Research On Financial Safety Of China Based On Mixed Operation Mode

With the continuous development of the global economic and financial integration,the financial mixed operation mode has become to the dominant trend of international financial industry development.In including the US,Japan and Europe countries,western developed countries are implementing mixed operation mode in financial system.In the international environment,China's financial reform has no choice to go to mixed mode from separate operation in the process.Mixed operation mode can make financial institutions get more market,reduce the cost of developing and popularizing innovative business because of its scale economy and scope economy;it can solve the problem of inefficiency and diversified risk caused by information asymmetry.However,with the extensive application of financial derivatives,the systemic risk of the financial industry will increase.The financial crisis triggered by the subprime mortgage crisis in 2007 severely damaged the global economy and financial system,which led to doubts about the positive impact of the mixed operation model on the security of the financial industry system.In 2010,the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act signed by US President Barack Obama,its purpose is to strengthen the protection of consumers' interests and guard against systemic risks in the financial industry.It did not bring the financial industry back to the era of separate operation.Therefore,investors,consumers and regulators have clearly realized that simply dividing the financial industry into mixed mode or separate mode is not a good way to avoid the occurrence and spread of the crisis.The mixed operation mode has become an irresistible trend of financial industry development.This paper chooses the marginal expectation loss method to measure the systemic risk of the banking industry.Regression model is used to compare the risk control ability and profitability of banks with mixed operation and those without mixed operation.It is found that the former is superior to the latter in both during the financial crisis in 2007 and the post-crisis period.Secondly,the researcher select some factors that have important influence on the security of financial industry,analyze and deduce the security stability and system reliability of financial industry by using the methods of system chaos dynamics and reliability dynamics,and find the distribution and industry of financial industry under the mixed operation mode.The interaction between structure and industrial organization stability will have a positive impact on the security and reliability of the financial system.Afterwards,this paper establishes the financial industry safety evaluation system,focusing on the key factors sensitive to the mixed operation mode,calculates the score of key factors and evaluation index by arithmetic average method.The results show that the fluctuation of China's financial industry safety index coincides with the trend of economic development during the period of data selection.Based on the above research and combined with the goal of promoting the healthy development of mixed operation,this paper proposes that,on the basis of strengthening the legal system construction and industry regulation,China should first establish bank holding companies to develop mixed operation of finance,waiting for the time when China's financial system and international environment are more mature,and then establishing the holding group mode to ensure the safe transition of China's financial industry to the completely mixed operation mode.The innovation of this paper is mainly reflected in three aspects as follow:(1)This paper proposes that under the current situation,financial institutions should establish the bank holding group as their own development in line with the mixed operation.At present,banking-dominated is in Chinese financial system.With the rapid development of Internet technology,the willingness of various non-bank financial institutions to participate in the traditional banking business has increased,forcing the banking industry to choose appropriate innovative business to expand the market and increase performance.Term 43 of the law of the People's Republic of China on Commercial Bank:'Commercial banks must't engage in trust investment and securities business within the territory of the People's Republic of China,nor shall they invest in non-self-use real estate or non-bank financial institutions and enterprises,except as otherwise stipulated by the State.' Based on this legal requirement,it is an appropriate mode for the financial industry to choose the banking industry as the leading institution and establish the mixed operation mode of the bank holding group which conforms to the current legal framework.(2)Based on system dynamics,a security and reliability optimization strategy for financial system is proposed.Based on the system dynamics analysis of the variables affecting the security of the whole financial industry system,the paper establishes the security model of the financial system and the basic framework of optimization,deduces the mechanism of its influence on the security and reliability of the system,and considers that it is superior to improve the performance of the indexes such as the reliability of industrial layout,the reliability of industrial structure and the reliability of industrial organization.That is effective strategy for reliability of financial industry security system.System dynamics emphasizes the viewpoints of system,whole and relation,development and movement,its essence is a method of combining qualitative and quantitative reasoning and system synthesis reasoning.Through this method,a feedback mechanism is established among the variables in the financial industry system,and the selected influencing variables of the financial industry system security and reliability are more accurate,so that the performance of the optimization strategy is guaranteed to be optimal.(3)On the basis of introducing the theory of industrial safety,this paper establishes the evaluation index system of financial industry safety,and calculates the key factors of financial industry safety with arithmetic average method.Since China's financial system reform is in a period of great change,the selection of the key factors of the evaluation index system focuses on the selection of the factors sensitive to the mixed operation mode.From the viewpoint of "equal ignorance" of these indicators,the arithmetic average method is used to select the key factors and the industrial index in turn.Carry out the calculation.The empirical results show that the fluctuation of the industrial safety index calculated by this method is consistent with the financial development during the data acquisition period.The establishment of this system provides a theoretical method which conforms to the characteristics of the times for China's financial industry security evaluation,and its evaluation results are more accurate and referential for today's decision makers.