A Study On The Impact Of Technological Innovation On The Marginal Export Growth Of Chinese Enterprises

Since the reform and opening up,the rapid development of China export trade has made a great contribution to the continued prosperity of Chinese economy.It not only creates a huge foreign exchange reserves,but also solve a lot of labor employment problems in China.At the same time,we should pay attention to the instability of export trade,the large proportion of processing trade,being vulnerable to external shocks,and so on.To ensure the sustainable and stable development of export trade,an important factor is to carry out technological innovation.Through technological innovation,we can enhance the enterprise's ability to learn and to independent research and development,enhance the level of technological innovation,optimize the structure of enterprises and then improve export competitiveness.Years of economic development has proved that enterprises with the technological innovation have larger extensive margin of export growth than that without the technological innovation,have larger export performance than that without the technological innovation in the export market and have bigger survival rate than that without the technological innovation in the export market.Against this background,this paper firstly sums up and analyzes the related literature on the impact of technological innovation on the extensive and intensive margin,decomposes the export growth margin into the extensive and intensive margin and defines the extensive and intensive margin and the dual margins.Secondly,the paper analyze the impact of technological innovation on the marginal export growth according to CaldeRn(2010)and Bustos(2009)'s theoretical model of the innovation behavior and export decisions.In the context of Rauch and Watson(2003)model,the duopoly game model is used to analyze the impact of technological innovation on the export growth of the intensive margin.Technological innovation a affects the marginal export growth through cost promotion effects,product differentiation effects,human capital effects and technology monopoly effects.The external shocks affect the marginal export growth through conductive effects and income effects.At last,the paper makes a statistical analysis of the characteristics of China's technological innovation and export trade at the macro and micro level.In the empirical analysis,this paper uses the logit regression method,probit regression method,survival analysis method,the fixed and random effects regression method to study the effect of technological innovation on the marginal export growth with micro data from 1999-2007 China industrial enterprise data base and Chinese patent database.Based on the above theoretical and empirical research,this paper makes conclusions as follows:First,both the patent and output value new products have positive and significant impacts on the extensive margin of export growth and the impact of output value new products are larger than that of the patent.The patent and output value of new products have larger positive and significant impacts on the extensive margin in capital and technology intensive enterprises than that in labor intensive ones.These two indicators of technological innovation have the greatest impact on the extensive margin in the western region,and have the least impact on the extensive margin in the eastern region.The impacts of these two indicators on the extensive margin have heterogeneity in different ownership enterprises.The "self-selection effect" and "leaRning-by-export effect" exist between the technological innovation and export growth margin.The "learning-by-export effect" has impact on the extensive margin although there is a threshold value.Second,both the patent and output value new products have positive and significant impacts on the export performance.There is a big difference in the export performance of different factor intensive enterprises.The patent has a largest positive impact on the export performance of state-owned enterprises,and has a least positive impact on that of private enterprises.The output value of new products has a positive impact on the export performance of state-owned and private enterprises and has no significant effect on the export performance of Hong Kong and foreign enterprises.The technological absorptive variables have a positive impact on export performance.After the addition of technology absorption variables,the impact of patent on export performance is weakened,while the impact of new product output on export performance increases.Both the patent and output value new products have positive and significant impacts on the persistent margin of export growth.The patent and the output value of new products have larger positive and significant impacts on the persistent margin in capital and technology intensive enterprises than that in labor intensive ones.The impacts of patent and output value of new products on the persistent margin are different in different regions.The patent has a largest positive impact on the persistent margin of state-owned enterprises,and has a least positive impact on that of private enterprises.The output value of new products has a negative impact on the persistent margin of state-owned enterprises,while has a positive impact on that of other enterprises.Third,the financial crisis in 2008 made China's trade sector suffer heavy losses,and scholars have done a lot of research on the steady development of international trade under the background of external shocks.In this context,this paper takes account of the typical external shock variables,oil price shocks and trade and financial shocks,to study the role of technology innovation in the export growth.The empirical results show that the effects of technical innovation on the extensive margin of export growth,export performance and the persistent margin of export growth decline after the addition of these two impact variables,which indicates that China's export growth to the marginal external shock is sensitive and vulnerable.