| The establishment and improvement of local government debt management system is not only a hot spot of concern among domestic and foreign scholars and actual work departments,but also an important institutional arrangement to prevent and dissolve local government debt risks.Although the old version of the budget law promulgated in 1994 is strictly prohibited from local governments' borrowing,local governments at various levels need to take various forms of financing in a variety of ways for development needs.These debts are not only large,but most of them are in a state of concealment,especially after the implementation of a new round of active fiscal policy in 2009,the credit of local governments is expanding rapidly.The National Audit Bureau of national government issued by the state audit office at the end of 2013 showed that by June 2013 the national local government debt scale increased rapidly from 10 trillion and 710 billion in 2010 to 17 trillion and 890 billion yuan,and the growth rate was up to 67.04%.According to the data of the Ministry of finance,by the end of 2017,local governments in China had a debt of 16 trillion and 470 billion yuan to repay the liability,and the government's debt rate of more than 100%of the international police line in five areas.If the local government has a debt crisis,it will lead to systemic financial risk through the transmission of the banking system,and ultimately the central government is "the bottom",which threatens the security and stability of the whole macro-economic operation.Therefore,strengthening local government debt management is imminent.Therefore,in the third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee,the party put forward the establishment of a standardized and reasonable central and local government debt management and risk early warning mechanism.The new budget law,issued in August 2014,gives the local governments the right to borrow.The nineteen report suggests that we should improve the financial supervision system and keep the bottom line of systemic financial risks.We must resolutely fight against and resolve major risks.All these reflect the concerns of regulators on local debt and enhance the importance of debt management.However,at present,our local government debt management research is still in its infancy.The research scope is mainly confined to risk warning,and a complete system has not yet been formed.Based on the existing research results,from the perspective of system and integrity,this paper set up an analytical framework suitable for China's local government debt management system.On the basis of a wide range of domestic and foreign research results,this paper aims at building and perfecting the local government debt management system in China,and makes a more full demonstration around the debt life cycle(the pre rule,management,post treatment)and the management subject(central government,local government,market)and so on.Starting from reality,we investigate the changes of local government debt management system in China,pointing out the existing problems in debt management at the present stage.Finally,it puts forward institutional arrangements and policy recommendations for building our local government debt management system.The full text is divided into seven parts,the specific contents of each part are as follows:The first part is the introduction.Starting from the background and significance of thesis writing,the purpose of this study is clarified.Then,the research results of local government debt management at home and abroad are reviewed,providing a source of thought for future research.On the basis of this,the contents,structural framework,main methods used and the innovation and deficiency of the paper are put forward.The second part is the analysis framework of the local government debt management system.Through the analysis and definition of relevant concepts in this study,the premise and foundation of the management system of local government debt;then,the use of public products,the new public management,risk management and game theory,discusses the theoretical origin of the local debt management system;finally,a detailed interpretation of the local government debt management system,on the one hand from the perspectives of system theory,to explore the elements of the management system of local government debt;a debt based on the life cycle theory in three aspects before the rules,things in control and after the treatment,a detailed description of the management system of local government debt,and the three level(ex ante rules,things in control and after treatment)make a full demonstration of the relationship between.The third part is the pre event rules.It includes the target,model and organization of local government debt management.This section explains the connotation of debt management objectives from three angles,such as debt financing demand,repayment and operation process.In the management mode,it not only combs and sums up the types and factors of debt management pattern,but also analyzes and summarizes the choice of debt management mode in various countries.In terms of organizational structure,it mainly analyzes the organization structure of debt management and the international practice of debt management institutions.The fourth part is the control of the matter.Including the central government,the local government and the market three management subjects.Starting from the central government level,and analyzes on the connotation of debt and risk early warning and control method,not only the size of the debt control method based on KMV model,design of full aperture risk early warning index system and debt risk early warning model based on BP neural network.Then,starting from the local government level,based on the analysis of the basic framework of budget management,explore the specific implementation path of budget management;and based on the use of information and information disclosure of debt the main objectives of the study on the specific contents,detailed explanation of debt information disclosure accounting method and report,to perfect information disclosure mechanism to identify the debt the starting point.Finally,starting from the market level,a comprehensive analysis of the connotation and factors of local government credit rating,to lay the foundation for the establishment of credit rating system;and then systematically bond insurance connotation and operation process,in order to identify the direction of launch of bond insurance system and focus.The fifth part is post-processing.Including the local government debt crisis resolution and error correction accountability.On the one hand,the paper elaborates the meaning,the international experience and the basic framework to resolve the debt crisis,to provide reference for a comprehensive study of the mechanism to resolve the debt crisis;on the other hand,starting from the error correction asked the connotation and the function of accountability,accountability for debt correction interpretation,and on the basis of investigation by asking responsibility error correction in the international experience analysis of debt,correction of accountability elements for the construction of accountability mechanisms to lay the foundation for correcting debt.The sixth part is the change and analysis of the local government debt management system in China.Review the development course of local debt management in China since the tax sharing system.It mainly includes three stages:germination stage,starting period and standard period.Then,it analyzes the problems of local government debt management in recent years,and lays the foundation for the follow-up research.Secondly,KMV model is used to determine the starting from the corresponding Liaoning government credit default probability threshold,analysis and prediction of Liaoning 2018-2024 years of government bond issuance can guarantee the mean and volatility of income growth rate,and then find out the forecast period in different period of Liaoning government debt security issue size,provide a useful reference for the control of Liaoning's government debt the size of the.Finally,the BP neural network model is used to test the debt risk assessment and early warning of Liaoning province.Specifically,the Liaoning government announced debt Audit Department of Liaoning Province,Statistics Bureau and other departments of the relevant data,based on the full aperture early-warning index system,using cluster analysis to filter out the early warning index simplified,then determine the critical value and factor analysis,single factor and comprehensive risk assessment of Liaoning province 2010-2017 years of debt risk,finally using BP neural network method,early warning for 2018-2022 years in Liaoning province debt risk.The results show that the debt of Liaoning province has a serious risk in 2018-2022 years,and it is mainly embodied in two aspects of debt structure risk and scale risk.The seventh part is the system arrangement and policy suggestions for the construction of local government debt management system in China.Based on the full demonstration of the local debt management system from the third chapter to the fifth chapter,aiming at the related problems in the sixth chapter of China's local debt management,this paper puts forward the institutional arrangement and policy recommendations of China's local debt management system.Including advance management design,strengthen the debt scale,debt risk early warning and control to improve budget management and information disclosure,to establish a credit rating and bond insurance system,the implementation of the bankruptcy and debt management corrective accountability mechanism,supervision mechanism,perfect sound debt debt law and vigorously promote the reform of the financial system.In the process of research,we combine qualitative analysis with quantitative analysis,normative analysis and empirical analysis,literature research and achievement reference,statistical analysis and software application.The possible innovations in this paper are mainly reflected in the following three aspects:First,the construction of the framework of the local government debt management system.The research perspective is innovative.Starting from the life cycle of debt,local government debt management can be roughly divided into three aspects,namely,ex ante rule,matter control and afterwards handling;and the main body of local government debt management is divided into central,local and market.Therefore,starting from three perspectives(before,after and after)and three main bodies(central,local and market),this paper constructs a local government debt management system structure.Second,we build a debt scale measurement model based on the modified KMV model.There is a new method of debt scale control.At present,most domestic scholars use foreign scholars to draw on the standard of the foreign scholars to control the scale of debt scale,rather than limit the actual scale of the debt,not according to the actual situation in our country.In addition,there are great differences in regional characteristics,economic development level and national policy in various regions,which make the limits of the quota of debt scale different in various regions.Therefore,starting from the actual assets value of various regions,we can modify the KMV model to determine the reasonable issuing scale of each region's government debt.Third,build a nonlinear early warning model based on full caliber debt risk early warning index system.Risk early warning has a new way of thinking.It is mainly embodied in two aspects:first,design the full caliber debt risk early warning index system.There are new innovations in the design of the index.From the perspective of system theory,the formation of local government debt risk is closely related to four factors,such as local economic development,public risk,fiscal revenue and expenditure,and debt management.From the perspective of debt risk formation,this paper designs a set of full caliber debt risk early warning index system based on the research of police source.The two is to establish a nonlinear early warning model of debt risk.Early warning methods are innovative.At present,most domestic scholars adopt the risk early warning method based on linear analysis.But in essence,there is a complex nonlinear relationship between debt risk warning indicators and early warning results.This leads to the low accuracy of debt risk early warning based on linear analysis.Therefore,this paper studies how to predict the risk of local government debt based on the nonlinear BP model.This is also the main feature of this article.The shortcomings of this article can be broadly summarized as the following two points:First,the forecast interval has yet to be expanded.The BP model used in this paper can only forecast the debt risk in the coming year and can not predict the long-term debt risk.Second,the policy recommendations yet to be further empirical test.Owing to the fact that I have no practical work experience,the validity of the institutional arrangements and policy proposals for improving the debt management system proposed in this paper needs to be further tested empirically. |
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