| At present,Public-Private Partnership(PPP)model is promoted to be the most important way in suplying public products and services by Chinese government.It is showing great potential and broad prospects in the field of infrastructure and public utilities.However,PPP model is not a master key in any aspect.In the application of PPP model,PPP projects are usually facing renegotiation or even more premature termination in China.In the case of premature termination,physical assets transfer is a key issue between local government and private partner,followed by asset assessment and reasonable compensation.It is the moment that not only tests the credit and image of our government,but also affects the investment enthusiasm of private partner.At present,there is neither relevant legal basis for the determination of termination compensation,nor perfect contract provision to refer to in our country,not to mention the mature experience can be used for reference.The research on PPP projects' premature termination is problably focused on the surface analysis,which is lack of valuable research.Hence,this paper takes the early-terminated PPP projects as the research object,adopts the relevant theories and methods of economics to expound the legal basis and principle of the termination compensation of PPP projects.It probes into the government compensation liability under different termination situations.Firstly,it expounds the realistic background of PPP model in China,and points out the setbacks encountered in the practice,thereby the existing problems in the process of buy-backing PPP projects.Secondly,it analyzes different situations of PPP projects' early termination.By analyzing the principle and theoretical basis of termination's compensation,the author points out the scope of government compensation according to different termination situations.Moreover,in the case of franchisor's default leading to PPP project's relationship-termination during the operation period and the case of non-franchisor's default,the author constructs two compensation decision models——one is based on PPP project's residual franchise value,and the other is based on the replacement value of PPP project's physical assets.Finally,it takes a PPP project as an example to analyze how to predict the property right of the project and how to detenrmine the termination compensation amount.Moreover,it has a discussion from three aspects:project value evaluation,termination compensation and premature termination,and reveals some policy implications.The innovative work of this dissertation is mainly reflected by the following three aspects:(1)It analyzes the causing mechanism of premature-termination of PPP projects.The occurrence of premature termination is a combination of multiple factors.In order to make a thorough understanding of the mechanism of premature termination,quantitative analysis is adopted in this article.It establishes a structural equation model to analyze the causal relationship among critical factors for premature-termination of PPP projects from three angles:the basic influence factor,the stage performance factor and the final expression.By analyzing the comprehensive effect of factors,the relationship between the cause factors is analyzed in detail,which is useful to expose and reveal the the essence of PPP projects' early-termination.For example,the probability of relationship-termination is higher than that of entity-termination,and the local government has more liability on the early termination of PPP project.(2)In the case of franchisor's default leading to PPP project's relationship-termination during the operation period,the purpose of asset evaluation is focused on the opportunity value of the assets.That is,the future benefits of the project.Therefore,the income method is selected to evaluate the PPP project's residual franchise value,and a compensation decision model based on it is established.By introducing the method of external market evaluation,considering the project's performance level before termination,and comparing it with the benchmark performance level as specified in the agreement,the compensation adjustment coefficient is determined.Besides,the thesis proposes a new sight on termination compensation from two different perspectives:the local government failure to meet the commitment as a general business partner and the local government breach of the contract for the public convenience as an administrative agency.Different constraints are designed according to the different termination cases and the reasonable feasible interval of compensation is determined.Moreover,when using income method to evaluate the PPP project's residual franchise value,this paper expounds the impact of non-financial indexes on project value from four angles:the historical income level before termination,the macro-political environment,the regional economic development level,the market and industry conditions.Through the combination of analytic hierarchy process(AHP)and fuzzy mathematics evaluation model,the influence of non-financial indexes on project value is quantified,and the overall fair market value of the project is comprehensively evaluated,which is more scientific and reasonable.(3)In the case of non-franchisor's default leading to PPP project's relationship-termination during the operation period,the purpose of asset evaluation is to investigate the past consumption of the project and to determine the input value of the asset,that is,the value of the project assets formed in the past.Therefore,the cost method is selected to evaluate the replacement value of the physical assets,and a compensation model is set up based on it.Besides,considering the two situations of the franchisee's own cause and the force majeure risk leading to project's premature termination,different constraints are designed according to the different termination cases and the reasonable feasible interval of compensation is determined.This thesis aims at discussing the economic compensation of premature termination for PPP projects.The research in this paper is expected to fill the gaps in academic research and provide theoretical and technical support for the practical development of PPP projects. |
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