Research On Identification Of The Key Factors And Compensation Scheme For The Early Termination Of PPP Projects

In order to narrow gap of the investment demand and the actual investment quota of infrastructure and public service construction,the choice of PPP model can directly affect and solve the implementation efficiency of supply and demand inconsistency in social and economic development.The PPP projects has the characteristics of huge investment,high capital concentration,long investment period but low return.Besides,there are many stakeholders which are not consistent with the objectives,so that a large number of PPP projects in the practice are between the beetle and the block.The situation that many projects are facing the early termination or even failure occurred frequently during the concession period which is not full.How to effectively prevent and evade the unfavorable factors of PPP projects to identify and control the project risk in a scientific and reasonable way,how to determine the compensation scheme after the termination of the PPP projects,not only become an important research topic,but also has important theoretical significance and practical value.Aiming at this problem,the paper carry on a detail study as follow:First of all,based on the relevant research background of the reform and development stage and early termination of concession project of challenge,and explain the basic overview of early termination of the PPP project and the relevant theory: the compensation theory of early termination projects,incomplete contract theory,project renegotiation theory,theory of responsibility sharing,that gives the basic theoretical system which supports the thesis.Based on the qualitative research method of the grounded theory,this paper analyzes and identifies the influencing factors of PPP projects prematurely,identify and revise the core concepts and impact categories through 100 project cases literature collection and expert semi-structured interviews,and finally come out the result of 35 initial influencing factors of the early termination PPP projects.Secondly,the 35 initial influencing factors were aggregated into 9 key factors,and then obtain the conclusion of the the early termination PPP projects of the top 10 influencing factors.To establish interpretive structural model of the early termination PPP projects through the ISM method,this model reflects the impact and path of the early termination of the top 10 key influence factors.The model results are the four-layer factor structures,which includes Project financing and target income,Trend forecasting and resource competition,Policies and regulations and project control,Government regulation and decision management from top to bottom.The Root cause factor is "public sector decision-making and mismanagement".Finally,the previous stage-oriented research results which is the top 10 key influence factors is divided into five development stages of the PPP projects,and analyze the various stages of preventing countermeasures,and then put forward the compensation scheme for the whole life cycle of PPP project which includes pre-compensation for prestage,post-compensation scheme for construction phase and compensation scheme for operation phase.At last this paper analyzes the composition of compensation price,the choice of compensation method and the division of compensation responsibility,and puts forward some suggestions on the optimization of compensation scheme.