The Efectiveness Test Of Monetary Policy Operational Objectives In The Transition Of Price Regulation

As everyone knows,the transformation of the price regulation of monetary policy is a supporting policy measure to conform to the economic and social development and to speed up the reform of the interest rate market,the process of transformation inevitably affects the original channel of monetary policy transmission.The objective of monetary policy operation is the key link of monetary policy transmission.The scientific evaluation of its effectiveness is an effective way to promote the transformation of price regulation.To build a set of evaluation system to verify the effectiveness of monetary policy operation objectives and apply the above system to the inspection of specific operational objectives effectiveness has become an urgent theoretical proposition.Based on the traditional monetary and bank theory,this paper constructs the evaluation system of the effectiveness of the monetary policy operation target under the background of the price regulation transformation.Specifically,the system should include:Whether the volatility of monetary policy objectives can be measured;Whether the feedback of monetary policy tools is timely;Whether it has the ability to control the ultimate goal of monetary policy;Whether the guidance effect on the market interest rate is significant;Whether it is Good coordination with the supply of money.This paper will study from the above perspective,and hope to get the conclusion which is in line with our country's reality.Taking SHIBOR as the research object,it is mainly based on the following reasons:(1)From the reality of our country,Although SHIBOR cannot be decided by the central bank as the past "benchmark interest rate",its transaction is always under the operation and management of the central bank.It can better follow the operation habits of the "benchmark interest rate" in the past.The research has a good historical inheritance.(2)From the feature,On the one hand,SHIBOR is a price that is spontaneously formed by the interbank lending market.On the other hand,the SHIBOR market is constructed by the central bank,which is more suitable for the "bridge" between the "monetary policy tool" and the "ultimate goal".It ensures that the research conclusions can conformed to the policy guidance and the market objectivity at the same time.(3)The interbank loan market is the main market of money market,and its price position is stronger than that of the bills market,the large negotiable certificates of deposit market(CD market),the Treasury bill market and other money markets.From the international experience,The world's major economies have adopted interbank lending rates as operating targets.Therefore,the researchconclusions about SHIBOR have good extensive application.The specific research content of this article is mainly from the following aspects.Firstly,the origin,mechanism and test mode of the monetary policy operation target are discussed.The influence of the social public economic behavior,the operation of the financial institutions and the transformation of the monetary policy of the central bank on the objectives of the monetary policy operation are analyzed.This paper analyzes the effectiveness of the operational objectives of monetary policy in the United States,Germany and the United Kingdom,The four stages of the operation of monetary policy in China are discussed.It is found that interest rate marketization has not yet been completed,interest rate adjustment channels are not yet smooth,financial market is not developed,operation target transmission mechanism is not perfect,market interest rate is various,and there is no authoritative operation target.Secondly,the basic law of SHIBOR fluctuation and its determination are discussed.It includes three aspects: can we clearly define the index,whether the index data can be accurately collected,whether the central bank can effectively analyze these related data and make corresponding judgement and scientific prediction.In this paper,SHIBOR is divided into four stages,early,early,medium and recent.Measuring the volatility of the high frequency data of SHIBOR,The accuracy of the test results is tested.Thirdly,the effect of SHIBOR on the transmission of monetary policy instruments is discussed.That is,through the use of various monetary policy tools,the central bank can adjust and control the target variables accurately and in a timely manner.Whether the central bank can directly participate in the monetary market transactions in open market or other tools or means according to the macroeconomic policy objectives and the reality of the macroeconomic situation,thereby affecting the operation objectives.This paper first analyzes the influence of the traditional three major monetary policy tools on the SHIBOR from the theoretical level.The process was then extended to other monetary policy instruments.The impact process of monetary policy tools on SHIBOR is discussed from the perspective of quantitative and price monetary policy tools.Finally,the quantitative analysis of the influence was carried out with the aid of the measurement analysis tool.Fourthly,the regulation effect of SHIBOR on the ultimate goal of monetary policy is discussed.As a monetary policy transmission tool,operation target has strong relevance to other interest rates,and can play a role in guiding other interest rates such as money market and capital market.By influencing the general cost and income level,and then affecting the market main body's consumption,investment andsavings preferences,changing their preferences for different financial products,they finally relate to the total output of national economy,money supply and total social consumption.The ultimate goal of monetary policy is divided into six aspects:economic growth,price stability,full employment,balance of payments,structural adjustment and financial stability,analyzed the effect of SHIBOR on the ultimate goal of economic path,and the econometric analysis tool to analyze the influence of SHIBOR on the final goal of the monetary policy shock response process.Fifthly,the guiding role of SHIBOR on other major market interest rates is discussed.The operation target is the most representative interest rate in the money market,which is the most representative interest rate in the money market.As the benchmark of financial products pricing,it is the coordinate origin of the interest rate system of the financial market,and it is a basic position in the interest rate system.This paper analyzes the interest rate linkage effect of SHIBOR from the aspects of money market,bond market,credit market and interindustry market,and makes a quantitative analysis of the linkage effect of SHIBOR from three stages of short term,medium term and long term.Sixthly,the coordination effect of SHIBOR on money supply is discussed.The history of monetary supply as an important regulation target of China's monetary policy has a long history.The coordination of money supply should be examined in the test of the effectiveness of monetary policy operation.In order to ensure continuity and consistency of monetary policy operation objectives after implementation of price regulation and transformation,we can successfully achieve relevant monetary policy regulation goals.This paper analyzes the coordination relationship between SHIBOR and money supply from three levels of money supply,and analyzes the practical effect of the above relations by means of econometric analysis.Through the above research,we get the following main conclusions.(1)The GARCH model was predicted by SHIBOR of different duration and DM test was carried out for the prediction results.The research shows that the volatility of SHIBOR shows a significant "peak to fat tail" feature.The short-term interbank lending rate has obvious ARCH effect.The residual of the sequence regression equation has cluster phenomenon,and the SHIBOR market has strong volatility clustering and sustainability.(2)The State-space model is used to analyze the regulatory relationship between monetary policy tools and SHIBOR.The result shows that,The effect of the benchmark interest rate on SHIBOR is different with the time.The impact ofquantitative monetary policy tools on SHIBOR is limited.The price-based monetary policy tools can play a more significant role in regulating SHIBOR.(3)The correlation of SHIBOR is analyzed by SVAR model.The results show that the impact of SHIBOR on GDP is relatively weak.It has a significant impact on consumer prices,which has a negative impact on the level of employment.The impact on the balance of payments is not stable,the impact on the consumption of residents is weak,and the impact on financial stability is positive,but its regulatory effect is weak.(4)Through the analysis of the TVP-VAR model of SHIBOR for different periods,The results show that there is a linkage between different periods of SHIBOR.The long-term interbank lending rate has a more significant guiding effect on the short-term borrowing rate.In different periods,there are differences in the linkage effect of SHIBOR on the yield of national debt,the repo rate of pledge type and CHIBOR.(5)Through the analysis of the SEM model that coordinate the relationship between SHIBOR and money supply,The research shows that,when the market interest rate rises,the capital pressure of the enterprise is larger and the capital deposit is declining.The rise of SHIBOR reduced savings deposits,and the rise of SHIBOR reduced other deposits.There is a negative relationship between the generalized money supply and the SHIBOR,and there is a positive relationship between the narrow sense of money supply and the SHIBOR.Based on the above conclusions,we put forward the following countermeasures and suggestions.(1)Strengthen the construction of the system mechanism of the SHIBOR market quotation,and improve the timeliness and accuracy of the market volatility forecast.We should promote interoperability between different markets,and strengthen interoperability between the local currency and the foreign exchange market.Improving the accuracy of the middle and long end interest rates,Narrowing the volatility gap between different period markets.We should standardize the market order and strengthen the monitoring and analysis of the pricing behavior of financial institutions.(2)Strengthening the central bank's supervision and guidance to the SHIBOR and effectively improving the effectiveness of the monetary policy tools.Establish a cross-market joint regulatory mechanism to enhance the coordination and standardization of monetary policy adjustment.Increase the use of SHIBOR as a benchmark for pricing.strengthen the management of the price-based monetary policy tools andcorrectly guide the reasonable expectation of the change in the price of money.To consolidate the central bank's main position in monetary policy,and to continuously improve the authority of the financial market management.(3)Strengthening the impact of SHIBOR on the ultimate goal of monetary policy,Continuous enhancement of the relevance of monetary policy transmission.Improving the central bank system,ensuring the independence of the central bank and the applicability of monetary policy;Improving the effectiveness of economic regulation and control of monetary policy and enhancing the agreement between policy design and economic operation;strengthen the comprehensive coordination of monetary policy,financial policy and industrial policy.(4)Strengthening the coordinated relationship between the SHIBOR market and other markets,We should strengthen the coordination between the price of each financial market and the interbank lending rate.We should coordinate the development of various financial markets and establish standardized channels and mechanisms for the circulation of money in the money market.We should coordinate the development of financial market,strengthen the linkage and unification of money market and capital market,strengthen the correlation of interest rates among different markets,and make interest rates more harmonious.Finally,we must establish a perfect interest rate transmission mechanism.(5)Strengthening the coordination and coordination of SHIBOR regulation and money supply management and control,Improve the transmission of policy and the effectiveness of monetary policy adjustment.To strengthen the scientificity of monetary policy and to improve the effectiveness of SHIBOR on the regulation of monetary policy.Rational use of quantitative and price control tools to promote the regulatory effectiveness of various policy instruments.We should pay more attention to the synergy effect of monetary policy and fiscal policy,so as to reduce the time lag of macroeconomic and increase the pertinence of macroeconomic regulation,so as to maximize the effectiveness of monetary policy.