Research On The Impact Of Monetary Policy On The Price Of The Real Estate Market In China

Real estate,whether in China or other countries in the world,is often regarded as the leading industry of a country's national economy.In our country,whether it is the size of the city or the city of economic prosperity or the city of economic decline,the real estate industry contributes at least 5.3%to the local GDP.Secondly,the real estate industry involves several dozen sectors in the upstream and downstream industries.For example,the upstream industries include the steel industry,the cement industry,the chemical industry,and other industries,such as the decoration industry,the property management industry,the household appliance home industry and so on.Once again,it is also the most important.the real estate industry is a basic industry,more a people's livelihood industry,people's necessities and other aspects are related to the real estate industry in varying degrees.Finally,the development of the real estate industry can not be separated from strong financial support and huge capital injection.The blind expansion of financial assets or bad debts is often accompanied by the rise and fall of the real estate industry.Therefore,in order to control the hidden risks brought by the real estate bubble,the stability of the real estate industry is attracting more and more attention from governments around the world.In order to control the hidden risks caused by the real estate bubble,the stability of the real estate industry is becoming more and more popular in the world.The government attaches great importance to many of the world's major economic crises linked to a broken real estate bubble,for example,the bubble economy of Japan in 80s and 90s twentieth Century,the Asian financial crisis in 1998 and the sub prime mortgage crisis in 2008.all due to the false prosperity of the real estate market,The real economy is severely affected by the violent fluctuation of the house price,which leads to the economic crisis.Therefore,it is of great practical significance to explore the effect of monetary policy on house prices in China.It can clear up the influence on housing price,so that we can make better use of our monetary policy to control housing price.This chapter is roughly arranged as follows:The introduction part focuses on the background and theoretical and practical significance of this study.and explains the analysis method of this article roughly,and summarizes the relevant literature on the impact of monetary policy on the real estate market at home and abroad.The first chapter is the theory of monetary policy transmission of Keynes school,the theory of asset price transmission,the theory of the path of monetary policy's impact on house Prices and the optimal currency area,and the theoretical description of the effect of monetary policy on the price of house prices.The next two chapters study me from two angles of the whole country and all kinds of cities,respectively.China's monetary policy is theoretically prepared for the impact of housing prices.The second chapter is from the national point of view,selecting the monthly data of the variables such as M2,interest rate,credit and exchange rate from February 1999 to December 2016.Through the use of Eviews6.0 statistical software,the relevant data are tested by ADF test and Cointegration test.On the whole,we analyze the impact of monetary policy on housing prices.The third chapter is from the perspective of various types of cities,using the related panel data model analysis to further analyze the difference between China's monetary policy on various urban housing prices.In this part,by selecting the time interval from 2006 to 2016,according to the classification standards of the cities in China,the monetary supply,interest rate,credit and exchange rate of the first line,the new line,the second line and the three line city are interpreted as the price of the house price,and the output,consumption and investment of each city are made.As a control variable,the panel data formed by statal3.0 is analyzed,whether it's a random effect model or a fixed effect model depends on the Hausman Test.Then the corresponding regression analysis is carried out to test the effect of monetary policy on house prices.The fourth chapter is the conclusion drawn from the previous theoretical and empirical analysis,and puts forward the corresponding policy recommendations.The main conclusions are as follows:First,at present,whether from the point of view of the national and the various types of cities,the quantitative tools of China's monetary policy have greater impact on housing prices than price instruments;second,the impact degree of the monetary policy on different types of cities is different.The corresponding countermeasures are as follows:first,speed up the improvement of the degree of interest rate marketization,and realize the transformation of the regulatory framework of monetary policy in China.Second,according to the difference of different types of cities in China's monetary policy,different policies can be regulated according to different types of cities,and the real estate market is too complex,and many aspects should be involved in many aspects.The real estate market is too complex and involves many aspects.We should cooperate with various policies simultaneously.Third,the real estate market itself is also going to speed up the reform,the limited purchase and other administrative means are not advisable for a long time.It is necessary to speed up the establishment of long-term mechanism.