Development Of Chinese Corporate Bond Market And Research On Risk Control

With the continuous innovation and development of the corporate bond market,the existing market bond balance has exceeded 60 trillion yuan,becoming the second largest financing channel after the credit market.On the whole,the corporate bond market not only plays an important role in enriching corporate financing methods,reducing corporate financing costs,and improving corporate financing environment,but also plays an effective role in improving macro-control functions.China's economic development has entered a new normal: Continuous optimization of resource allocation,gradual evolution of overcapacity,transformation and upgrading of economic entities,and the gradual deepening of the structural reform on the supply side all urgently require the establishment of a stable,efficient,and perfect corporate bond market to promote the stable development of the new normal economy.We need to base ourselves on the basic national conditions of China's bond market,learn from and draw on the advantages of regulatory system of mature capital market,strengthen the top-level design and overall arrangements for risk supervision in China's corporate bond market,and strengthen the discipline of regulatory agencies and self-regulatory agencies in the market operation,further exert the functional role of optimizing the resource allocation and adjusting the financial structure of the bond market,and provide strong support and efficient services for advancing structural reforms on the supply side.At present,the research on risk management and control in the corporate bond market has received extensive attention from academic circle and policy makers.From the summary of existing literature: First of all,on the subjects of research,the study of bond market control mainly focuses on the inter-bank bond market and the national bond market.There are few studies on the management and control of the corporate bond market.Second,as far as the scope of the study is concerned,the research on the management and control of the existing bond market only proposes the risk control model and the management and control policies.It does not explore the formation and transmission mechanism of the bond market risk before the model is constructed,so it is difficult to form a systemic control and control mechanism.Finally,as far as research factors are concerned,the existing research focuses on the analysis of a single credit risk and the content of the micro level.It does not consider the corporate bond market as a whole to analyze the risks and influencing factors that the market itself faces.This article combines financial market theory with behavioral economic theory,based on: Risk Identity—Risk Analysis—Risk Management,a main thread,to deeply discuss the formation of corporate bond market risk and the mutual impact of the bond market on China's economic development.To construct an effective risk management system for China's corporate bond market based on modeling.This paper first studies and discovers the interrelationship between the company's own factors,industry factors,policy changes and even macroeconomic fluctuations that cause changes in the credit risk and the liquidity risk of the corporate bond market,which are conducted from the vertical and horizontal sides of the risk respectively.The establishment of a two-tier risk transmission mechanism provides a basis for effectively blocking the risk communication channels and clearing up the risk accumulation in a timely manner.Second,it further explores the dynamic response relationship between the development of the corporate bond market and macroeconomic growth,and analyzes the long-term dynamic response characteristics between the two.Finally,by constructing the SVAR model,the impulse response and variance decomposition of four macroeconomic variables,fixed asset investment growth rate,industrial added value above scale,money supply,consumer price index,and corporate bond market issuance scale are performed.The empirical test results show that there is an interactive relationship between macroeconomic development and the scale of corporate bond market issuance.Overall,the consumer price index and money supply in macroeconomic factors have the greatest impact on the issue size of the corporate bond market.At the same time,the development of the corporate bond market can,to a certain extent,ease the pressure of currency inflation,increase the supply of money,increase industrial added value,and promote the growth rate of investment in fixed assets.Finally,macroeconomic factors,the characteristics of bonds themselves,and other capital market(stock market)linkages were included in the multivariate error correction model.Through the establishment of the VECM model,the issue of the credit risk of China's corporate bond market,the influencing factors of liquidity risk,and the relationship between various factors were explored.The study found that there is a significant positive cointegration between the average payout ratio,exchange rate changes,industrial added value above the designated size,and the liquidity of the corporate bond market.But the average yield to maturity,average maturity,and repurchase rate will increase liquidity risk.Repo rates,average pay period,exchange rate changes,and industrial added value above designated size will increase the credit risk of the corporate bond market,while the average dividend yield will reduce the credit risk of the corporate bond market.On the one hand,the research in this paper enriches the research scope of the risk theory of the bond market.The existing literatures on market credit risk and mobile risk management are mostly based on the banking system or stock market,and there are few literatures on the credit market or credit risk in corporate bond market and liquidity risk management.This paper uses time series data to study macroeconomic factors,the characteristics of bonds,and the linkage of other capital markets(stock markets),probing into the credit risk,the influencing factors of the liquidity risk and the correlation between the factors in the Chinese corporate bond market.It is found that the macroeconomic factors,the characteristics of the bonds and the volatility of the stock market have a certain impact on the different risks of the corporate bond market.Exchange rate fluctuations and domestic stock market volatility affect the liquidity of the corporate bond market over a long period of time,therefore,it should be regarded as the key monitoring object in the liquidity risk management of the bond market.The continuous warming of the real economy will also reduce the liquidity of the corporate bond market and increase the liquidity risk of the market.These conclusions are an in-depth and complementary study of risk regulation in the bond market.On the other hand,the research field of macro economic development has been expanded.First,it provides practical significance for the regulation of the development of the bond market and the protection of investors.This paper examines the risk degree of the bond market through empirical research,and puts forward some relevant policy suggestions to improve the regulatory system of the bond market in China.Giving full play to the role of the inter-ministerial coordination mechanism of corporate credit bonds,the relevant departments in accordance with the laws and regulations entrusted duties,carrying out their duties,should strengthen the bond market access,information disclosure and regulation of credit rating.Establishing of investor protection system,and increasing the false statement in securities market,insider trading,price manipulation and other illegal activities.It provides a realistic basis for standardizing the development of the bond market and improving the protection of the investors in the bond market.Second,it provides a reference for the prevention of financial risk.In recent years,in China,the phenomenon of finance is becoming more and more serious.A lot of capital flows away from the real economy to the virtual capital market,which shows that the phenomenon of Industrial Hollowing is serious.With the expansion of the financial system,the more and more bubbles,such as asset and leverage,have severely restricted the development of the real economy in China.Based on a detailed analysis of the risk transmission mechanism of corporate bond market,this paper constructs a risk conduction mechanism of China's corporate bond market,which can provide a theoretical reference for financial market to respond to risks.It can not only enhance the foresight of investors and market players,timely introduce relevant policies and regulations,regulate financial market and correct unreasonable financial behaviors.It also provides all kinds of basic data for guarding against financial risks,promotes the further improvement of China's asset registration system,standardizing the asset trading activities in China's corporate bond market,and promotes the healthy development of China's financial market.The third is to provide reference for improving the supervision of the corporate bond market in China.The diversification of market players,the enlargement of market scale,the endless innovation of market,the steady improvement of market opening and the gradual completion of market system all urge the importance of bond market in the whole capital market system.All of these have made the bond market increasingly important in the entire capital market system.However,while the credit bond market is developing rapidly,we have also found that the debate between the development of the bond market and the supervision system has become increasingly serious.Separation of the bond market supervision departments led to the split of the bond market into multiple parts,which severely restricted the efficiency and development of the bond market.Therefore,on the basis of the existing research,the reasons for the formation of the international bond market supervision mechanism were explored,the problems in the development of China's bond market were clarified,and on this basis,the status quo analysis of the current bond market supervision mechanism in China was analyzed.It will lay a solid foundation for the follow-up inspection of the bond market risk mechanism and the establishment of a bond market control mechanism which will be suitable for China.