Research On Transmission Mechanism And Control Strategies Of Supply Chain Disruption Risk

In recent years,in order to cope with the increasingly fierce market competition,the supply chain is becoming more and more lean and globalized.Business models such as non-core business outsourcing,global procurement,single source supply and lean supply business models have made the suppl y chain longer and more geographically dispersed,and the interdependencies of each link in the supply chain are becoming stronger and stronger.Uncertain or interrupted events in one link can be passed back and forth to any node in the global market throu gh this large and complex supply chain network system.In the case of asymmetric information,any negative information will be magnified,and the Domino effect may even lead to the collapse and paralysis of the entire supply chain.Therefore,once a link i n a supply chain is interrupted,the risk of disruption is most likely to be transmitted to other companies in the supply chain network,and the resulting loss of disruption risk will not be limited to the first enterprise that has experienced interruption.Since the beginning of this century,due to economic crisis,natural disasters,terrorism,computer viruses and other external environmental factors,the probability of supply chain disruption risks has been further increased,and supply chain disruption events have occurred from time to time,causing great damage to node companies,supply chains,and even the entire social economy.This paper focuses on disruption risk of the supply chain.Based on the analysis of the characteristics of the supply chain network and the transmission mechanism of supply chain disruption risk,this paper discusses creation and distribution of information sharing value,and discusses purchase decision of business interruption insurance in dealing with supply chain disruption.This paper also constructs a prediction model for supply chain disruption,which can provide scientific theoretical basis and effective real-time guidance for demand forecast of the enterprises.Specifically,it mainly includes the following four aspects:(1)The paper first sorts out the relationship strength theory,and then fuses the scale-free network with the relational strength theory.Finally,the characteristics of the supply chain network are analyzed from two aspects: single statistical parameter s(degree,average degree,vertex degree,network structure entropy,degree distribution function,feature path length and agglomeration coefficient)and comprehensive analysis.Based on that,existing weak links,newly introduced weak links,existing strong links and newly introduced strong links is classified and managed,and a strong and weak collaborative management strategy is proposed.(2)In order to avoid disruption risk,information sharing between nodes is very important.This paper studies the value realization of information sharing and the value sharing of information sharing respectively.In the part of information sharing value creation,the paper constructs the model of dynamic information sharing value creation based on Stackelberg and the model of information sharing value creation in enterprise cooperation,and obtains some meaningful conclusions through relevant analysis.In the part of the distribution of value generated by information sharing,the four methods of nucleolus theory distribution model,Shapley value allocation methodology,GQP method,and Nash negotiated solution model are used to distribute the value of cooperative information sharing.It is found that the distribution results of the four distribution models have certain differences,fairness and rationality.Then the information entropy is used to integrate and discuss the fair and reasonable income distribution scheme to encourage the members of the supply chain to participate in the information sharing.(3)From the perspective of business interruption insurance,this paper discusses the strategies of supply chain disruption risk transfer.The paper first assumes a two level supply chain system consisting of a single manufacturer and a retailer,and then classifies and calculates the risk loss of the supply chain node enterprises disruption,build models for each of the three scenarios(no insurance,only manufacturer insurance,and only retailer insurance).And then the paper explored the purchase value and purchase conditions of business interruption insurance,and compared the differences in the expected profits of manufacturers and retailers.Finally,numerical simulation was used to simulate and verify the above models.(4)In the process of risk transmission,product supply and demand are highly uncertain.Therefore,the method to effectively deal with the risk of supply chain disruption is to build a forecasting model of supply chain disruption.The empirical analysis results show that the improved GM(1,1)-Markov model prediction method breaks through the requirements of the traditional gray GM(1,1)model for raw data,can be applied to supply chain disruption or mutation sequences,and can provide scientific theoretical basis and effective real-time guidance for enterprise forecasting demand.Based on the analysis of the transmission mechanism of supply chain disruption risk,some management suggestions are put forward on the application of the scale free network and the relationship strength theory to optimize the network structure and enhance the coping ability of the disruption risk by using the strong and weak cooperative management theory;Information sharing can increase the overall profits of the supply chain,reduce inventory costs,and effectively increase the entire supply chain revenue.Information sharing can also enable supply chain companies to effectively deal with supply chain disruption risks.It is of both theoretical and practical value to study the creation and distribution of the value of information sharing in the supply chain.The framework of disruption risk transfer decision can not only guide enterprises to transfer and disperse disruption risk,improve the quality and efficiency of enterprise’s disruption risk management decisions,but also provide new perspectives,new ideas and new research models for the stud y of supply chain disruption risk transfer;The forecast model for mitigating supply chain disruption risk improves the prediction’s fitting degree and forecasting accuracy,it also enhances the stability and reliability of the forecast.The results of the forecast can be used to guide the production,inventory management,and demand forecasting of supply chain companies.