Study On The Simulation Of Coupledand Coordinated Development Of The Socioeconomic, Energy-Environment Systemsofjilin Province And Its Implementation Path

The 19th CPC National Congress report pointed out that "To maintain the harmony between human being andnature,we must establish and fullfillthe conceptof"lucid waters and lush mountains are invaluable assets",and accelerate the reform of eco-civilization,and build a beautiful China".For the newly coming period,thecoordinated developmentof the sicoeconomy and protection of the ecological environment an inevitable choice for achieving nationalsustainable development.As one of the areas where China's modern industry started earlier and an important industrial base in china,Jilin Province has experienced rapid economic development since theimplementation of the reform and opening-up policy,with continuous increase in the socioeconomic level andformation ofan industrial layout focusing on heavy industries such as petroleum,chemicals,and building materials.However,due to the long-term resource-based and vigorous development of heavy industries,Jilin Province's economic development is constrained.Besides,due to aging technologicalequipment and huge energy consumption,environmental deterioration,energy shortages and other issues have been emerging.It is urgent forJilin Province to transform the mode of economic development and adjust its industrial structure in order to realize the coordinated development of socioeconomy,energy and environment.Under this background,based on the analysis of status of regional development of socioeconomicandenergy-environmentsystems(SEEESs),this paper takes Jilin Province as the empirical study area to(1)analyze the coupling mode and evolution process of the SEEESsandconstruct the evaluation model to evaluateregional level ofcoupled and coordinated development of the SEEESs of Jilin Province;(2)study the development trend of the coupledand coordinated development of the SEEESs and construct a warning system for warning analysis by using autocorrelation analysis and Radial Basis Function Neural Network(RBF)model;(3)identify the main driving factors by using the unit root test-cointegration test-Granger causality test;(4)analyze the uncertainties of parameters estimation in three preset scenarios(baseline scenario,stable scenario,and coordinated scenario)andquantify the uncertainties of the results to increase the accuracy of the results;(5)analyze the impacts of changes in the driving factors on the coordinated development degree andthe impacts of single and multiple driving factors onthe driving extent and driving direction for the peak value of the coordinated development degree;(6)reveal the function principals and mechanism of the driving factors of the coupled and coordinated developmentof the SEEESs in different scenarios;indicate the coupling time and path and the realization mechanismofthe coordinated development of in the SEEESs of Jilin Province.The research results show that(1)in 2014,the coordinated development degree of the SEEESs of Jilin Province was 0.66,indicating that Jilin Province is in the early stage of coupled and coordinated development;(2)the results of the RBF model show that the coordinated development degree of Jilin Province presents a declining trend,which will be 0.42 in 2030;if no measures are taken against current trend,the coordinateddevelopmentwill fall into an imbalanced stageand enter an orange warning status;(3)the results of the Unit root test-Co-integration test-Granger causality test show thatGDP,per capita GDP,proportion of the secondary industry,amount of C02 emission,forest coverage ratio and amount of fertilizer applied are the main driving factors;(4)when all parameters change with low speed,middle speed and high speed,the predicted coordinated development degree in 2030 will be in the interval of[0.61,0.69],[0.75,0.76]and[0.72,0.73]respectively,presenting normal distribution pattern;there are little uncertainties for the results in three modes;the impacts of parameter setting on the results are not substantial,verifying the reliability of the results;(5)the changing trend of the coordinated development degree presents a U-shaped curve in both the baseline and stable scenarios,with the lowest values as0.636 and 0.659 in 2025 and 2016 respectively;there is no valley value for the coordinated development degree in the coordinated scenario,implying that implementation of scientific and effective policies would help to maintainan coordinated development of the SEEESs;(6)the extent of how socioeconomic parameters affect the valley value of the coordinated development degree is in an order as population>proportion of secondary industry>the rate of urbanization>per capita GDP>GDP;the extent of how energy-environmental parameters affect the valley value of the coordinated development degree is in an order as amount of CO2 emission>C02emission intensity>proportion of non-fossil energy/amount of S02 emission/forest coverage ratio>amount of fertilizer applied;population and proportion of the secondary industry are the factors leading to lagging of the time of the valley value;C02 emission,per capita GDP,urbanization rate,GDP,proportion of non-fossil energy,S02 emission and C02emission intensity are factors leading the time of the valley value forward;amount of fertilizer applied has no significant effect on the time of the valley value.Therefore,Jilin province should control population growth,improve population quality,formulatestrategy of urbanization development,optimize the urban and rural population structure,change the mode of economic growth,optimize the industrial structure,transform traditional industries andupgrade manufacturing processes,and develop new energy and improve energy consumption structure to achieve coupledand coordinated development of the SEEESs.The research results are expected to provide technical support for sustainable development offilin Province.