Study On Evaluation Of China’s Soybean Target Price Subsidy Policy

From price support policy to direct subsidy policy is the common direction of agricultural subsidy policy reform in the international scope,and the choice of agricultural subsidy mode is a worldwide topic which is concerned by academia and government departments.Just like the development process of agricultural subsidy policy in the developed countries,China’s agricultural subsidy policy has entered an important adjustment period after more than ten years of continuous exploration and innovation.The reform of soybean as precursor,has experienced the temporary purchase and storage policy,the target price subsidy policy and the current soybean producer subsidy policy.This process of policy changes has formed a unique practical experience,which is of to great value for exploring the direction and the practice model of agricultural subsidy policy in China.So,wether the target price subsidy policy on soybean is effective?Have it completed the set goals?If there is a deviation,what is the root of the problem?How to understand the change logic of the soybean target price subsidy policy to the producer subsidy policy?Is this change reasonable?What are the implications for the selection and development direction of China’s soybean,even the subsidy policy of agricultural products?It is of great practical significance to discuss these problems.In order to answer the questions mentioned above,this paper constructed the evaluation framework of the soybean target price subsidy policy based on the policy evaluation theory and carried out evaluation of the entire process based on multi angle comparison,including the evaluation of policy programme,implementation process,policy effect,policy response,and policy termination analysis.Specifically,the main research contents include four parts:Topic Ⅰ:Evaluation of the soybean target price subsidy policy progarmme and the implementation process.This part has carried out the policy goal analysis,the policy progarmme and the implementation process evaluation.The core question to answer is whether the policy goal,policy progamme and policy implementation process of soybean target price subsidy is appropriate.It was found that:(1)China’s soybean target price subsidy policy has multiple goals and there is inherent contradiction between the multiple goals.(2)For the policy programme,there is no effective cooperation mechanism between the departments in the policy plan;part of the policy proposal lacks a description of the details;the choice of the basis of subsidies does not take into account the difference;there is a lag in the individual links in the policy process;policy supporting measures are insufficient.(3)For the implementation process,f the target price level did not fully consider the price of soybean and corn;the farmers lack sufficient understanding of the specific content of the subsidy policy;it is difficult to sell beans in some areas;the accuracy of the market price is difficult to guarantee;there is a delay in the allocation of the amount of the subsidy.Topic Ⅱ:Evaluation of the policy effect of the soybean target price subsidy.This part selects the two main policy objectives of the soybean target price subsidy policy to carry out the policy effect evaluation.Based on the perspective of improving the mechanism of soybean price formation,on the one hand,regression analysis,cointegration analysis and other metrological analysis methods were used.This paper established the regression model on the influence mechanism of soybean price formation and verified the regression results by judging the degree of integration between the domestic soybean industry chain and the domestic and foreign markets.On the other hand,the multi market local equilibrium model was used to analyze the effect of the soybean target price subsidy policy on the interests of the main body of the soybean market.It is found that there were great differences in the mechanism of soybean price fonnation in different period of policy.The implementation of soybean target price subsidy policy had improved the soybean price formation mechanism,making domestic soybean supply and demand and international soybean price the main factor affecting soybean price fluctuation.By comparing the integration degree of domestic soybean industry chain and domestic and foreign soybean market,we verified the regression results.Based on the perspective of guiding the production of soybean,the positive mathematical programming model was used to simulate the farming behavior of farmers under various policy situations.Through the scenario simulation,we eliminated the factors other than the target price subsidy policy of soybean,and concluded the impact of soybean target price subsidy policy on soybean production.It was found that,as two competitive crops,the effect of subsidy policy on corn and soybeans is linked.The unsynchronized reform would weaken or even distort the effect of the subsidy policy.Based on this,we excluded the factors other than soybean subsidy policy change,and found that soybean target price subsidy policy did not play a good role in promoting soybean production and ensuring farmers’ income.Topic Ⅲ:The response of soybean farmers to the soybean target price subsidy policy.The purpose of this study was to understand farmers’ intuitive cognition,description and judgement of policies,understand their satisfaction with policies,and further understand their policy needs and preferences,so as to make a value judgement of soybean target price subsidy policy.At the same time,through the policy response of the bean farmers,it was evaluated whether the target price subsidy policy of soybean has realized the "signal effect".It was found that,farmers were generally aware of the soybean target price subsidy policy,but the degree of understanding was relatively low;Satisfaction to the target price level was obviously higher than the subsidy standard;Most farmers did not refer to the target price level when making planting decisions,and more than half of the fanners believed that target price subsidies have little effect on improving soybean planting enthusiasm.It showed that most farmers simplified the policy to a direct subsidy linked to the planting area,which further weakened the policy effect.This finding confirmed the results of the sixth chapter’s empirical model,and provided a supplementary explanation for the effect of soybean target price subsidy policy on production.Topic Ⅳ:The Enlightenment from the policy changes of soybean target price subsidy to soybean producer subsidy.This part made a comparative analysis of the policy principle of soybean target price subsidy and producer subsidy.Combined with reality,the realistic logic of the transformation of soybean direct subsidy policy from target price subsidy to producer subsidy was discussed.It was considered that soybean producer subsidy was more suitable for the current situation at home and abroad.However,there were still some limitations.The actual effects of the subsidy policies were evaluated by further using empirical mathematical programming.Based on the above research,this paper holds that:The introduction of the target price subsidy policy of soybean conformed to the background of the times.However,it did not achieve the established goals.There were many reasons for it.From the results of the evaluation,there was an inherent contradiction between the multiple policy objectives of the target price subsidy policy.There was a deviation in the policy programme and implementation process.The incentive effects of subsidies and its delivering ways were limited.The recognition and satisfaction of the subsidized farmers were low.These factors all restricted the effect of subsidy policy.It was reasonable to replace soybean target price subsidy with soybean producer subsidy,but there were some limitations,and the effect should not be overestimated.