Agricultural Land Use Transition In The Context Of Agricultural Supply-side Reform

China's rural society is undergoing an important transitional period.Various problems that arise in socio-economic development can be reflected in land use.Moreover,agricultural land is the foundation for a smooth transition of the entire social economy in both quantitative and functional terms.Therefore,how to realize the transition of agricultural land use reasonably is an issue that needs urgent attention.We systematically studies agricultural land use transition in China in the context of Agricultural Supply-Side Reform,including its macro-level driving forces,the dynamic process and characteristics of agricultural land transition in different regions,and its occurrence mechanism at the micro-level.First of all,through comparing international experience in agricultural reform and agricultural land use transition,and sorting historical changes of China's agricultural land tenure system and agricultural land use,we developed and improved the connotation and definition of agricultural land use transition,and constructed a systematic theoretical framework for the study of agricultural land transition.On this basis,we analyzed three main driving forces of agricultural land use transition:changes in population and labor force,the transition of residents' food consumption,and improvement in agricultural input and technology,and calculated the contribution of the three factors to Land Requirement for Food.Next,we constructed a comprehensive evaluation system for agricultural land use transition based on the theoretical framework,and demonstrated agricultural land use transition from the following five dimensions:agricultural land use intensity,land use structure,input intensity,output efficiency,and operation pattern.Based on the level of economic development and the importance of agriculture industry in the entire economy,we selected Qingpu District in Shanghai,Changsha County in Hunan Province and Tanghe County in Henan Province for empirical study and comprehensively measured the degree of agricultural land use transition.At the micro-level,we used multi-agent approach to simulate farmers' land use decision-making behavior in Jinze Town of Qingpu District and Xiaozhuang Village of Tanghe County,and explored the mechanism and dynamic process of agricultural land use transition with a bottom-up approach.Finally,combining the purpose of supply-side reform with the characteristics of agricultural land use transition,we proposed regulation measures and suggestions for agricultural land use transition in China.The main conclusions of this study are as follows:(1)Population growth,changes in dietary structure and improvement in agricultural input and technology are the three major factors for changes in Land Requirement for Food(LRF)in China.Improvement in agricultural input has been the main reason for the decrease in LRF.The increase in population has offset most of the reduced LRF due to input improvement.The changes in dietary structure has increased LRF in most years,but its contribution is relatively small.In addition,overall LRF in China has been declining.With the increasing urban population and the "urbanization" of rural residents' dietary habits,LRF in China has changed from plant-food-dominated to animal-food-dominated,as well as from rural-dominated to urban-dominated.The increasing proportion of animal foods in residents' diets and the growing urban population are the two main reasons for the changes in the structure of LRF.Population growth and improvement in agricultural input has been the main reason for the changes in the amount of LRF.(2)Agricultural land use transition in Tanghe,Changsha and Qingpu demonstrates different characteristics and stages.The transition in Qingpu has been the most significant.In recent years,the input of capital goods(e.g.,pesticides and fertilizers)and labor input have both shown a downward trend.It is at the "de-intensification" stage in terms of agricultural land use;agricultural land use has transitioned from improving land productivity through "labor-and-capital intensification" to improving labor productivity with "reduction of capital inputs",which represents a typical transitional path for agricultural land use in developed regions,where the contribution of agriculture in the whole economy has been decreased.The level of agricultural labor transfer in Changsha County is not as high as in Qingpu and non-agricultural employment here is less stable than that in Qingpu,but it has the regional advantages as a suburban county.In recent years,the most significant feature of agricultural land use transition in Changsha has been the rapid expanding of high-value crops such as fruits and vegetables.It is at the stage of "structure adjustment" in terms of agricultural land use.Labor-intensive and high-value crops enhance the output value while absorbing labor force,and also satisfy the increasing demand for fruits and vegetables from both urban and rural residents,which provides a new approach for agricultural development in the context of agricultural supply-side reforms.As a major grain-producing county,in recent years Tanghe has seen an increase in the area of cultivated land and in the cultivating proportion of grain crops,as well as a continuous increase in both agricultural machinery and biochemistry input such as pesticides and fertilizers,resulting in a substantial increase in both land productivity and labor productivity.It is at the stage of "intensification" in terms of agricultural land use.In addition,the diversification of crops cultivated in Tanghe has decreased in recent years,and the proportion of major grain crops(such as wheat and corm)has expanded notably,showing a trend of"specialization" in the cultivation of main grain crops.(3)With an agent-based approach we simulated farmland transfer behavior of farmer households in Jinze Town,Qingpu District,and households' crop selection behavior in Xiaozhuang Village,Tanghe County,by this way we explored the mechanism of the transition in agricultural land use pattern at the regional level.The results of Jinze Town indicated that the main factors affecting farmland transfer decisions of rural households are age,income structure,farming area,educational level,and social network,and the same valued attribute has different effects for farmland transfer-in and transfer-out.The simulation showed the differentiation process of farmer households and the transitional process of farmland use pattern from scattered small-household operation to appropriated scale cultivation.The results of Xiaozhuang Village indicated that with the goal of maximizing economic benefits and the limit in family labor,households tended to choose peanut which was time-and-labor saving and had higher profits compared to cotton;the fluctuation of cotton prices,soil conditions,and the interaction between farmer households further reduced farmers' willingness to grow cotton.Multi-agent model captured the key factors affecting farmers' decision-making,reflected the actual dynamics of the transitional process,and proved to be a useful tool for understanding the micro-level mechanism of agricultural land use transition,which could provide scientific support for regulating agricultural land use transition from the root by guiding farmers' behaviors.Agricultural land use is the result of interaction among various factors,including labor,land and other resource endowments,technological development,the relationship between supply and demand,government intervention,the system of property rights,social relations,and urban-rural relations.The intricate combination and interaction of these factors have shaped distinct paths of agricultural changes and agricultural land transition in different regions.In addition,agricultural land use transition is also the result of mutual coordination between various stakeholders,reflecting the evolution and development of relations of production.It should be relative and dynamic,compatible with the labor and land resources and socio-economic development level of a region.Based on the study of characteristics and mechanism of agricultural land use transition,we propose two principles for the regulations of agricultural land use transition:first,adjust cropping system and management/operation pattern according to the supply structure of factors of production(especially the relationship between human and land resources);second,regulate the supply structure of agricultural products and agricultural land use according to the demand of agricultural product.At the national level,priority should be given to the development of agricultural technology,especially the R&D for agricultural machinery of small-and-medium size that is suitable for agricultural operations in China.Second,according to the changes of the residents' dietary structure,fruits,vegetables and feed grains should be expanded on the prerequisite of ensuring a reasonable grain self-sufficiency ratio.At the local level,different regions should arrange the proportion and layout of land-intensive or labor-intensive crops based on local conditions.Different regions could develop specialized production of advantageous agricultural products to realize the substitution and complementarity of advantageous resources.Agricultural land operation pattern should also be compatible with local labor and land resources:on the one hand,the level of non-agricultural development and rural labor transfer should be considered;on the other hand,the balance between labor and land could be adjusted by changing farm structure and organization.At the household level,market-based pricing strategy should be implemented to encourage farmers to produce agricultural products needed by the consumers so as to achieve the balance between supply and demand.Furthermore,direct subsidies instead of price intervention should be used as an approach to protect farmers' benefits.The development of new agricultural operation entities should follow the characteristics of household differentiation.Young farmers with skills or high education level are the immediate subjects for urbanization,and middle-aged farmers of 45-65 years old are the main population to be developed as appropriate-scale operators.Young people inclined to accept new knowledge and technologies should also be encouraged to participate in agricultural production.