Postponing Retirement Policy，Retirement Decision And Its Effects On Welfare

With the increase in economy development and improvement in medical care,the longevity of human kind also increase which has brought aging,a serious problem and challenge around the world.Aging has a significant ill influence on pension and finance,to deal with which,western countries have taken actions to adjust retirement age which is widely applied.By the year of 2015 there are 600 million population still at work after 64 years old.The more developed the country is the higher retirement age they apply.Postponing retirement age is officially the trend and calls for actions immediately.China also suffers from the same issue,rapid aging is a concern of the administration and people in the mean while we haven’t changed our retirement policy since 1978 which require male workers retire at 60,female 55 mandatorily.50 and 45 only are accepted for some special industries or reasons.This retirement policy no longer serves its people and government well under the situation of aging.It is a great necessity to carry out the postponing retirement age reform.This study has significant value in both practice and theory.My study focus on the postponing retirement policy,retirement decision and its effects on welfare and extend this topic into the following aspects as blow by using the combination of theoretical analysis and numerical simulation,the combination of empirical analysis and normative study,the combination of the literature review and comparative analysis etc.OLG Model and numerical simulation were used to study the influencing factors of individual retirement decisions.Multivariate logistic regression model was used to analyze the workers’ retirement intention.The results show that individual retirement decisions are affected by life expectancy,family structure,labor value,decline of labor force;The intention to postpone retirement is influenced by age,years of working,and health condition.The literature study of postponing retirement policies from different countries in which reforms of retirement age have already been done successfully or are running smoothly gives us the thread of light pointing the right direction of retirement age reform under our feet.Last but not the least,multiple linear regression allows the prediction of the policy effect on wage;the application of actuarial model and simulation on study of pension,the prediction of pension fund accumulation by using grey theory,and other studies of different welfare aspects reveal the impact of postponing retirement age on welfare.The results show that firstly,postponing retirement age might harm the wage of labor;secondly,it may increase pension wealth;moreover,postponing retirementage increase the demand and supply of labor;in short term it would not have much influence on economic growth however it is completely different story in the run;Last,it helps to increase the sum of saving from a country level.In order to guide the retirement age policy reform,improve the welfare of majority or minimize the adverse effects on welfare several suggestions are made :first we should progressively raise the retirement age;second,introduce the incentive mechanism into the structure of retirement policy;three,keep the new retirement policy as flexible as possible;four,encourage the development of pension;last,be cautious of postponing the retirement age for women.