Spatial Pattern And Association Of Urbanization In China's Provinces Based On Population Flow Liu Shuaibin

Urbanization is not only the spatial representation of population flow,but also complex system formed by a comprehensive action of multiple factors.Since China's reforming and opening up,the scope and scale of population flow is gradually expanding,the spatial organization scope of urbanization elements has gradually expanded from the scale of urban-rural areas to the regional scale.The spatio-temporal changes of population flow;for one thing,it has changed the population distribution structure of urban and rural,and reshaped the development pattern of urbanization.For another thing,it reconstructs the spatial association structure of regional urbanization,and affects and constantly adjusts the social and economic development pattern.The traditional urbanization studies emphasize the transfer of rural population to urban,but not enough attention is paid to the other source directions of population and the regional spatial association formed by this.The new urbanization emphasizes "people-oriented" and regards "optimizing the spatial formation of urbanization" as one of its basic tasks.It is necessary to examine the spatio-temporal heterogeneity of urbanization under the change of population flow pattern and the spatial association characteristics of regional urbanization from a systematic perspective,for providing a theoretical basis on solving the spatial imbalance of the allocation of population elements and the spatial diiferentiation of urbanization.This study takes population flow as the breakthrough path,deconstructs the spatio-temporal chang,es of population flow and urbanization,and then explores the logical relationship between population flow and urbanization evolves.The spatio-temporal evolution of urbanization is not only a spatial representation of population flow,but also a spatial tool to improve the efficiency of population allocation.Based on the logical relationship,we build a spatio-temporal analysis framework of urbanization from four layers.Firstly,the layer of population flows:exploring the quantity,directions and network structure characteristics of inter regional population flows.Secondly,the layer of urbanization spatio-temporal evolution:mainly exploring the spatio-temporal heterogeneity of urbanization according to analysis the development level of urbanization and the distribution structure of population in urban and rural areas.Thirdly,the layer of urbanization spatial association:Based on the population flow,the spatial association model of urbanization was constructed,and then the urbanization spatial association intensity,the structure of urbanization spatial association network,and their interaction were explored for understanding the evolution characteristics of urbanization spatial association.Finally,the layer of mechanism:the impact of influencing factors on urbanization from different process,different levels and different types were analysised.The main research contents and conclusions are listed as following:(1)The scale of China's inter provincial flow has shown a rapid growth from 1985 to 2015,but the concentration degree began to decline after 2005.In the aspect of population flow pattern,the hot spots of population inflows are steadily in the eastern region,the hot spots of the population outflows are stable in the central region,and the southeast coastal areas are switching between the sub hot and the sub cold spots.In aspect of population flow network structure,the distribution of the largest population inflow direction is shifted from centralization to decentralization.Henan and Sichuan are the largest sources of population flow in most regions of the central and western.Anhui and Hunan are the largest sources of population flow in the Yangtze River Delta and Guangdong province after 1995,and Guangdong is also the largest source of population flow in its neighboring Guangxi,Hainan and so on.The distribution of the largest population outflow direction shifted from decentralization to centralization.Beijing-Tianjin,the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta region are the largest concentration areas for population flow.The number of population flow routes continues to grow,and the distribution of nodes shifted from centralization to decentralization,the frequency of population flow is spiralling upward.The regional types of population flow are divided into active areas of population net inflow,balanced active areas,active areas of net outflow and inactive areas.The active area of population net inflow is concentrated in the eastern coastal area.The balanced active areas are concentrated in the northern region.The active areas of population net outflow are concentrated in the central and Western,and the non active areas are stable in the northwest region.(2)The level of urbanization in China's provinces showed a pattern of rapid growth in the northwest and northeast before 1999,but the typical nature of this pattern continued to decline after 1985.It showed a pattern of rapid growth in the East after 1999.This typical nature continued to increase from 1999 to 2010,basically stable after 2010.The spatio-temporal evolution of urban population and urban-rural population distribution are basically the same as the level of urbanization.Based on the comprehensive urbanization level and the spatio-temporal distribution of urban and rural population,the spatio-temporal heterog,eneity characteristics of urbanization evolution are divided into several types.They mainly include:Synchronous high grade urbanization type ?(synchronous growth between urban proportion and urban-rural proportion)and type ?(synchronous descent).asynchronous high grade urbanization type ?(Urban proportion decreasing,urban-rural proportion rising),synchronous low grade urbanization type ?(Urban proportion rising,urban and rural proportion decline)and type ?.asynchronous low grade urbanization type ? and type?,By combining the type of spatio-temporal heterogeneity and the regional type of population flow,the relationship matrix of the regional type of population flow and the type of spatio-temporal heterogeneity of urbanization was formed.(3)Based on the characteristics of relationship between population flow and urbanization evolution,a spatial association model of urbanization was constructed.The evolution process of urbanization spatial association intensity of China's provinces can be divided into 7 types,of which the dominant type determines the evolution process of urbanization spatial association intensity in China.The non-dominant types of urbanization spatial association intensity evolution features 2005 as the critical year,the growth were slow or even negative before the year;then together with the dominant type for promoting a continuous increase in the urbanization spatial association intensity across the country.The structure of the spatial association network of urbanization is becoming more and more complicated,and the association paths have shifted from centralized to scattered.The differences in the association density between regional subgroups with different attributes have begun to shrink,and the high-level nodes have spread from the east to the central and western regions.The interaction between urbanization spatial association intensity and spatial correlation network centrality is different.On the time sequence,the urbanization spatial association intensity has an immediate effect on the urbanization spatial association density,the urbanization spatial association density has a continuous effect on the urbanization spatial association intensity.In space,the dynamic change of interaction between urbanization spatial association intensity and urbanization spatial association density is relatively fast in the central and western regions,and tends to be stable in the eastern region.Further,we explained the effect of residents' income level and regional industrial structure on urbanization spatial association characteristics.(4)On the whole,the administrative power has the strongest influence on urbanization.For the other factors,the external force is relatively large,the market power is second,and the endogenous force is the least.In the process,the influence degree of administrative force increases rapidly in the early stage,and then slow down slowly;the influence degree of market force is fluctuating in the early stage,and then continue and steadily improve;the influence degree of endogenous force begins to increase continuously after fluctuation;the influence degree of exogenous force grows faster in the early stage,and remains stable in the post.In different levels,the influence degree of administrative force on the lower level of urbanization is greater,and the influence degree of market force on higher level of urbanization level is greater;endogenous force has a significant impact on the higher level of urbanization level,and the exogenous force has significant influence on different levels of urbanization.In different types,befor 2000,the endogenous force can promote the rapid growth of urban population in the high grade urbanization area and any influence factors can promote the rapid growth of urban population in the low grade urbanization area in active areas of population net inflow.The administrative power can promote the rapid growth of urban population in low level urbanization areas in the balanced active areas.Any impact factor can promote the rapid growth of urban population in low level urbanization area in the active area of population outflow.After 2000.the influence factors are decoupled from the development of urbanization in active areas of population net inflow.The higher the endogenous force,the faster the growth of urban population in the balanced active areas.In the active area of population outflow,the influence degree of administrative power is greater,the growth of urban population is slower;the influence degree of market force or external force is greater,the growth of urban population is faster.In the inactive areas,market power has become a key factor in determining the growth rate of urban population.Futher,combined with Lewis's dualistic economy model,the influence mechanism of population flow on urbanization is analyzed.At beginning of China's reforming and opening up.the provinces in eastern can make use of sufficient resources to promote the rapid expansion of urbanization and become the center of the spatial association network of urbanization.With the disappearance of the demographic dividend,the traditional industries in the eastern region have begun to transfer to the central and western regions or upgrade,and some of the original migrated people have reflux phenomenon.The urbanization in the central and western regions has accelerated,and the status in the urbanization spatial association network has been promoted.The social and economic development of the eastern region has begun to change from factor driven to innovation driven.Although the development of urbanization in the central and East has begun to narrow in quantity,the gap of quality still exists.