| The imbalance of birth sex ratio is a common concern of all countries in the world and is particularly important for East Asian countries.In the demographic literature,the normal sex ratio of the newborn population is between 104 and 107.However,since the1980 s,the sex ratio of the birth population in China has gradually deviated from the normal range.In 1982,the sex ratio at birth in China was 108.47,and then it gradually increased to 120.49 in 2005.Birth sex ratio imbalance was severely distorted,along with significant regional differences.The overall population structure was unbalanced and it became a problem of concern to the government departments and all walks of life.Birth sex ratio imbalance will have a certain impact on the economy and society,mainly reflected in marriage,crime,and savings.Birth sex ratio imbalance will increase women's bargaining power in the marriage market,reduce women's participation in the labor market,and induce the emergence of some new marriage patterns.Too many unmarried men will lead to an increase in crimes.The phenomenon of trafficking in women in remote areas is frequent and hinders the harmonious development of society.The unbalanced sex ratio can also induce macroeconomic fluctuations by increasing savings,delaying consumption and pushing up housing prices.The preference for boys in traditional cultural concepts can cause birth sex ratio imbalance.When strict family planning policies are implemented,parents face strict birth control restrictions.The traditional quantity-quality alternative theory believes that parents are more likely to give birth to boys.The popularity of B-ultrasound machines and other fetal sex identification techniques has provided convenience for low-cost gender selection.Further analysis points out that parents' preference for boys is rooted in economic motivation.When there are economic incentives,the relative revenue offamily-bearing girls increases,the relative cost of family-bearing boys increases,and parents are more likely to give birth to girls,which can alleviate the imbalance of birth sex ratio.This article attempts to systematically examine the relationship between birth sex ratio imbalance,economic incentives,and family birth decision-making from the perspective of empirical research.We mainly proceed from the perspective of government economic incentives and market economic incentives.In terms of government economic incentives,we are concerned about China's “Caring for Girls”project launched in 2003.This action has provided a series of incentives and supportive policies for families that have beared girls in pilot counties.We have separately inspected the “Caring for Girls” campaign's influence on gender ratio and the microcosmic mechanism of government economic incentives.In terms of market economic incentives,house price fluctuations will bring about changes in the wealth of family's housing.We are mainly concerned about housing price fluctuations in 2001-2008 and examine the impact of housing price changes on family fertility and birth sex ratios.Specifically,the research in this paper yields the following main conclusions:Firstly,economic incentives from the government can effectively alleviate birth sex ratio imbalance.The implementation of the “Caring for Girls” project can reduce the sex ratio by 12 percentage points.We also exclude the impact of county heterogeneity,concealment,immigration,and selection standard of the pilot counties.This article further examines the mechanism of action for “Caring for girls” project.Through the study of geographically neighboring counties and districts,we find that “Caring for girls”project mainly plays a role through economic incentives and the effects of administrative interventions is not obvious.This confirms the feasibility of real economic incentives tochange fertility behavior.“Caring for Girls” project can also improve the status of women in pilot counties and increase the educational level of local women.Among them,the proportion of women with college education and above has increased by 4.606‰,the proportion of women with bachelor's degree and above has increased by 1.33‰,and women's education degree has a significant increase of 0.792 years.The project can improve women's social development environment.Secondly,this article further explores the micro-mechanism of government economic incentives.In order to analyze the policy effect of “Caring for girls” project more deeply,based on the policy background of Huize County,the study found that in the “Caring for girls” project pilot counties,the total income of girls' families in the district increased by 5,891 yuan,and the social security expenditures of families and medical funds increased by 739.6 yuan and 112.3 yuan respectively.At the same time,the mother's income of the girls' families in the pilot areas could be increased by 2,809 yuan,and the mother's social security expenditures and medical fund expenditures increased by 409.1 yuan and 48.03 yuan respectively.It shows that economic incentives from the government can improve the family economic income,social security,and health care.The mother's economic income,social security,and health care can also be improved.Further,the common trend hypothesis and the interference of other preferential economic development policies in Huize County are effectively eliminated.For families with girls aged 18 and below in pilot counties,the policy effect of “Caring for girls” project will be relatively stronger.Similarly,the policy effect mainly comes from economic incentives.In addition,economic incentives from the market can promote the increase of fertility and the reduction of sex ratio.Fluctuations in house prices have brought aboutchanges in the wealth of family's housing.The increase in house prices will increase the number of children in the family.This effect is particularly significant for women of childbearing age between the ages of 30 and 44.There are no influences on women of childbearing age between the ages of 20 and 29.Taking into account of the types of family's housing,we have found that the increase in house prices has no effect on renters,but it will significantly increase the fertility rate of homeowners.We further found that rising house prices can significantly reduce the sex ratio at birth and alleviate birth sex ratio imbalance,and we conduct a series of heterogeneity tests based on household registration status,ethnic characteristics,and housing types.In order to effectively alleviate endogenous problems,this paper selects land supply as an instrumental variable for house prices.The IV estimation results remain stable,indicating that rising housing prices can promote family fertility,reduce the sex ratio of the birth population,and alleviate birth sex ratio imbalance. |
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