| Since the 1980 's,China's sex ratio at birth has gradually deviated from the normal range(103-107),and the imbalance ofsex ratio at birth in someareas has become an overall problem in the whole country,has become a persistent problem in China's population structure,but also has a profound impact on society,economy,population and other aspects.In recent years,governments at all levels have taken a series of measures to reverse the imbalance in the sex ratio at birth,and have achieved some initial results,but they have not yet brought them to a full return to normal levels.There are great differences in resource endowment,development level and customs in various regions of China,and the path of higher sex ratio at birth is also unique,and there are significant spatiotemporal heterogeneity in the influence of various factors on it.The empirical study on this subject mostly ignores the spatiotemporal difference characteristics of the sex ratio at birth and its main influencing factors,which leads to the study conclusion which can not reflect the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of the influencing factors.Therefore,using the census data and the population sample survey data since 1982,this paper takes the inland province of China as the research object,first of all,uses descriptive statistical analysis and spatial statistical analysis to deeply explore the spatiotemporal differentiation characteristics of the sex ratio at birth in China,and then constructs the classical metering model and the TWR model,GWR model and GTWR mode,which are estimated and compared from four aspects of society,economy,policy and medical treatment to the sex ratio at birth and the characteristics of spatiotemporal heterogeneity.Finally,the relevant policy suggestions for controlling the imbalance of sex ratio at birth are put forward in a targeted way.From the trajectory of time change,China's birth sex ratio experienced a rapid rise from the 1980 s to the 1990 s,reaching a maximum of 125.5 in 2007,and then began to decline slowly.From the perspective of spatial distribution,in the early 1980 s,only a few eastern and central provinces had an imbalance in the sex ratio at birth,but after 30 years of development,the gender imbalance in birth has evolved into a problem that is common in most provinces in China.Among them,the degree of imbalance in the central provinces is the most serious,and the sex ratio at birth in the western region is the smallest deviation from the normal range.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:(1)In terms of time,the sex ratio at birth in China has undergone a "inverted Ushaped" change,rising rapidly between the 1980 s and 90,slowing into 21 st century,reaching a peak of 125.5 in 2007,and then starting to decline slowly.(2)Spatially,in the early 80,the imbalance in the sex ratio at birth occurred only in individual eastern and central provinces,but after more than 30 years of development,this imbalance gradually evolved into a common problem in most provinces,with the most serious imbalance in the central province,while the sex ratio at birth in the western region was the least deviated from the normal range.(3)The empirical study found that the GTWR model had the best interpretation effect,except that the influence of primary industry's working population was positive,the influence of minority population was negative effect,and the difference of the two with time was stable,and the influence direction and intensity of the remaining variables on the sex ratio at birth showed significant spatiotemporal heterogeneity.(4)Time heterogeneity is mainly reflected in that the impact effect of per capita regional GDP in One-third provinces is gradually changed from positive to negative;the effect of women's average number of years of education is mostly positive and weakening,and the level of medical technology is mostly negative but gradually evolving;the effect of total fertility rate is mostly positive at the beginning and end of the period,However,the intermediate stage,with the evolution of time has shown drastic changes,rural each million people have the effect of the number of pension institutions is mostly positive,but showing a negative evolution trend.(5)The spatial heterogeneity is mainly embodied in the significant spatial agglomeration and spatial difference of the influencing factors in the whole.In particular,the influence effect of the economic development level of the Southeast Coast province is greater than that of the central and western regions.At the beginning of the period,with the exception of Tibet and Xinjiang,the average positive impact effect of women in the Midwest was greater,the eastern part was smaller,and the spatial pattern changed less except for the increasing trend of Heilongjiang.Negative effect of the proportion of ethnic minority population the north is generally larger than the south,but by the end of this spatial difference characteristics no longer exist,the trend is consistent;For primary industry in terms of population ratio,the vast majority of provinces have a positive effect,and the beginning of the eastern and western regions is larger,and the end of the period is larger in the central region.Each million people have the effect of the number of medical institutions,the beginning of the period from south to north gradually increased,the end of the term in addition to the east three provinces larger,from the east to the west gradually increased,the total fertility effect,the overall western region is significantly larger than the East Midlands;There was no significant difference between the provinces,and the negative effect of the end of the period increased further in some provinces,with significant differences between provinces. |
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