The Middle Eastern Regional Security Complex: Essential Structure And Transformation(2003-2018)

This paper selects the Regional Security Complex Theory(RSCT)as a tool to study the current security dynamics in the Middle East.This paper holds that the theory absorbs the concept of "polarity" of neo-realism on the basis of development and discard,and blends it with the concept of the social structure of Alexander Wendt's constructivism to form a new theoretical tool.RSCT,the more systematic and mature theoretical framework,could not only analyze the security problems in the Middle East,but also have a strong explanatory power.Under the guidance of this theory,this paper has carried on the operable treatment to both the material force and the conceptual power,thus defines "Pole",that is,the regional power in the Middle East.It also focuses on analysis of transformation of essential structure and the three dimension factors(domestic,regional and global)that cause the transformation in the Middle Eastern Security Complex during 2003-2018.During this period,Saudi Arabia,Iran and Turkey are main actors of the security dynamics in the Middle East.From 2003 to 2018,there have been significant changes in the essential structure of the Middle Eastern Security complex.The United States launched a war against Iraq in 2003,overthrowing Saddam Hussein's regime and completely depriving Iraq of its polar status.The Arab Spring,which began sweeping the region at the end of 2010,brought about two regime change in Egypt,causing it to lose at least its status as a regional power for the time being.Turkey is not a pole either in the Middle East or in Europe,but as a powerful insulator between the two.But it has no less influence on the Middle East than any major regional power.Regional conflicts have led to the decline of many vulnerable countries,the rise of a large number of armed sub-States and non-State actors,and the fragmentation of regional structure.In terms of social structure,the regional rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran under the guise of Sunni-Shia divisions has sparked regional hostility,other countries in the region have been forced to choose side and Turkey has also joined in the conflict.On the other hand,disagreements within the Sunnis based on the Islamic development model have also sparked hostility and conflict.The crisis of blockade and break up Saudi and UAE imposed on Qatar has made the identity of the GCC collapsed,and the security mechanisms of GCC have lapsed.All the regional powers pursue the principle of self-interest.Saudi Arabia and Turkey even support terrorist groups,including the Islamic State,for geopolitical gain,while Iran supports various Shiite militias.Two civil wars in Syria and Yemen have triggered a serious humanitarian crisis,and basic norms of international society such as sovereignty and wartime humanitarianism have been trampled upon.As Russia returns to the Middle East through the Syrian crisis,there has been a renewed infiltration of conflict and confrontation between the two global powers of the United States and Russia along the region,further exacerbating regional hostility.In short,there is a tendency for the Middle East to fall to Hobbes society.Internal changes have taken place in the Gulf region and there has been a trend towards increased linkages with the Horn of Africa,but external changes are unlikely.The eastern Mediterranean sub-region threatens to continue to be trapped in instability and fragmentation,caused by slow pace of the political process in Syria and the renewed escalation of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.Under the guidance of the concept of "strategic depth",the AK party tries to challenge the role of insulator,and the Middle East is an important stage for its practice of the strategy.Turkey has played an active demonstration and leading role in leading the development of friendship between security complex actors in the Middle East region,thus making the whole region move from conflict formation to security regiem.After the outbreak of the Arab Spring,Turkey,under the guise of promoting democracy and good governance in the turbulent Arab countries,is carrying out a pragmatic,sectarian interference diplomacy.And the reliance on the means of force is gradually serious,which risks dragging the region to Hobbes society.Due to the cross-border nature of the Kurdish issue,Turkey may alter the material structure of the sub-complex in the eastern Mediterranean,and increasing the interaction between it and the Gulf sub-complex.Turkey is neither a pole in the Middle East nor to be a pole in Europe.Its appropriate evolutionary objective is still an insulator state but work as a regional power.