Philippines’ Balance Strategies Against China In The South China Sea Dispute(2010—2018)

The core issue in this dissertation to be addressed is why the weak Philippines can challenge China in the South China Sea(SCS)dispute and take distinctly differentiated balance strategies against China since 2010.In the last decade,as a typical claimant in the SCS,Philippines’ provocations against China have been a relatively prominent international political phenomenon in East Asia and China’s persistent strategic trouble.By defining the phenomenon as small state(initiatively)challenges its peripheral great power and introducing the concept of ‘strategy prospect’,a theory framework that small state’s strategy-prospect-oriented balance strategies in challenging its peripheral great power will be put forward in the post-Cold War era,and then the evolution logic and its drives of Philippines’ balance strategies against China in the SCS dispute under the theory framework from 2010 to 2018 will also be analyzed systemically and consistently.Strategy prospects,which serve as the basis for decision-making,refer to the good or bad assessment of the main variables that determine the results while a state aims to accomplish its competing national interests.In essence,foreign policy-decision is the compatible unity of motives and strategies based on strategy prospects.In challenging its peripheral great power,strategy prospects are conducive for small state to clarify its rival will and the preconditions of its relative success.And enjoying important strategic flexibility derived from great-power competition,competing issue is not peripheral great power’s strategic focus,and inducing and forcing the latter to maintain strategic restraint is crucial to the small state.Among the small states that are challenging its peripheral great power,the small state(s)which harbors intense rival will can adopt different balance strategies due to its different strategy prospects.According to the intensity of great-power competition and the level of peripheral great power’ preference of “seeking stability”,small state’s strategy prospects can be divided into prudent strategy prospect,offensive strategy prospect and revised strategy prospect.Correspondingly,small state’s balance strategies against its peripheral great power are hedging strategy that focuses on mild soft balance or hard soft balance,hedging strategy that focuses on quasi-hard balance or hard balance and five possible corrections.In the Benigno Aquino III Administration,Philippines have intense rival will inchallenging China in the SCS dispute.Its prudent strategy prospect exists from June2010 to the outbreak of the Huangyan Island Standoff in 2012.Its balance strategy against China was hedging strategy that focuses on hard soft balance,and it was driven by more strategic flexibility in the context of U.S.’s “Pivot to Asia”,the anticipation of China’s continuing “Maintaining Stability Diplomacy” in the SCS,and international law and ASEAN’s constraints on China.Huangyan Island Standoff reflected Philippines’ offensive strategy prospect,which belonged to hard balance that focused on “military adventure” and caused by the miscalculation that U.S.would directly involved in Sino-Philippines’ conflict in the SCS and China would be highly strategic restraint.Philippines’ revised strategy prospect exists from the end of Huangyan Island Standoff to Aquino III Administration’s expiration.During the period,Philippines adopted hard balance that focused on “civil offence” and it was the result of Huangyan Island Standoff’s failure,hopeless “military adventure”,Cost-Imposing strategy from the U.S.and ASEAN’s deeper involvement in the SCS dispute.Duterte Administration’s balance strategy against China in the SCS is a further revision of the Aquino III Administration’s radical policy in the SCS and its rival will still be relatively intense.Philippines have adopted hedging strategy that focuses on mild soft balance strategy from Duterte took office to 2018,and it relies on the pessimistic destiny of the Arbitral Tribunal’s Ruling on the SCS,less strategic flexibility due to radical SCS policy,relatively soft balance strategy can be more productive,and Duterte needs China’s help in dealing with Philippines’ new domestic focuses.Presently,Philippines’ radical CSC policy has been weakened significantly,China’s capacity to shape Philippines’ strategy prospects in the CSC dispute has been enhanced historically,and Philippines’ substantial harm to China in the SCS has been also greatly reduced.However,it is hard for China to be a dominant power in the SCS in the foreseeable time.Although the successful adjustment of Duterte Administration’s balance strategy against China in the SCS has greatly inhibited the revival of Philippines’ radical SCS policy,the possibility of hard soft balance against China still can’t be ignored in the light of increasing domestic political pressure and international temptation.Looking to the future,China must be forceful,persuasive and courteous,and make more efforts to explore pragmatic,inclusive and creative solutions based on adhering to China’s bottom lines.