Simulated Air Traffic Conflict Detection: The Mechanism Of Failure Under Different Clue Conditions

Air traffic controllers,pilots,train managers,athletes,and other occupations should judge and predict whether and when moving objects are about to be in conflict.To predict whether moving objects will be in conflict is termed as conflict detection.Research regarding to the mechanisms of collision detection,can contribute to knowledge of multiple motions and providing recommendations for transportation,aviation,sports,military,and artificial intelligence,especially for designing automation tools and solving practical problem,such as "mistakes,forgetfulness and negligence" in air traffic control.To estimate the time remaining before an object reaches the observer or a specific point of interception,is regarded as time-to-collision or time-to-contact(TTC).According to Xu and Rantanen(2003),two types of prediction components of conflict detection are identified,relative TTC with regard to which aircraft will reach theprojected point of intersection first,and absolute TTC estimating the time-to-collide if the aircraft will reach the intersection simultaneously.Considerable research concerned about horizontal conflict detection,examining the influence of angle of convergence,relative velocity and distance,and the fast-slow order,while little has explored the perspective of TTC research,differentiate the effects of discrimination and response bias,and the effects of perceptual bias based on different spatial orientation in conflict detection.According to utilitarian theory of perception,the vision of human and animals are highly adaptive to adopt multiple strategies and integrate all kinds of information from the changing environments.Researchers proposed the revised tau theory that distance,velocity,and other information clues in addition to visual variables,can help to estimate TTC.Combining utilitarian theory of perception and the revised tau theory,in a simulated air traffic conflict detection and TTC estimation task,the current study aimed to investigate the functional mechanism underlying conflict detection error and TTC estimation bias based on TTC research.The current study aimed to explore the interaction among spatial orientations,angle of convergence,fast-slow order and sequence by separating different clues,such as velocity,distance and time pressure.It consists of four studies,including 11 experiments.For each experiment,Experiment "a"is the conflict detection task,and Experiment "b" is the TTC estimation task.By manipulating altitude,velocity and distance information,the present study can separate the clues that can be used by individuals for conflict detection as well as the processing strategies used by individuals when encoding and extracting cues information.Study One and study Two mainly investigate the role of relative and absolute distance cues by manipulating velocity.In study One,which consisted of two experiments,the spatial orientation,angle of convergence,and sequence were examined at the same velocity.On the basis of study One,study Two,including three experiments,examined the absolute velocity,spatial orientation,angle of convergence,and sequence at the same velocity by introducing absolute velocity variable.Study One and study Two indicated that the spatial orientation,absolute velocity,angle of convergence and sequence affected conflict detection and TTC estimation at the same velocity and altitude condition.It has been shown that individuals mainly adopted the motion-based strategy in trajectory comparisons,which may have a length illusion and speed bias based on spatial orientation and distance-over-speed bias.On the basis of study One and study Two,study Three,including three experiments,examined velocity ratio,spatial orientation,angle of convergence,fast-slow order and sequence at different velocity by introducing velocity ratio variable.Study Three suggested that the velocity ratio,spatial orientation,angle of convergence,fast-slow order and sequence influenced the conflict detection and the TTC estimation under the different velocity and the same altitude condition.It has been suggested that individuals may adopt transformed visual variable-based,motion-based and ratio-based strategy,which may have a length illusion and velocity perception bias based on spatial orientation and distance-over-speed bias.On the basis of study Three,study Four,including three experiments,further investigated adaptive processing in uncertain situations.It explored the effect of different velocity,vertical separation on conflict detection under time pressure and altitude changes.Study Four showed that the velocity and altitude changes influenced the conflict detection and the TTC estimation under conditions of time pressure and altitude changes.It has been indicated that individuals were mainly based on heuristics,preferring to process velocity and altitude information.It also has shown that individuals may adopt transformed visual variable-based,motion-based strategy,ratio-based strategy,and altitude-based strategy in complex and uncertain situations.Based on the above four studies,the following conclusions are drawn.1.The results demonstrated perception bias based on spatial orientation and distance-over-speed bias.Individuals were more likely to rely on distance information for trajectory comparison rather than time estimation.2.The results supported the utilitarian theory of perception.It showed that individuals had multiple strategies under different cues,and there is an adaptive processing of direct perception and indirect calculation.3.The results confirmed the applicability of the revised tau theory in World-centered TTC estimation.Individuals can use the information of visual variables,velocity,distance,height and other information in the relative and absolute TTC estimation.