| With the rapid development of pig farming on a large scale,pollution issues caused by pig farmers are becoming increasingly severe.In 2015,China's central government put forward the supply-side structural reform in agriculture in order to transfer the pig farms to major corn producing areas and other areas with larger environmental bearing capacity.That put the suitable candidate Jilin province in spotlight.More and more breeding construction projects are based in Jilin province,in which great pattern change of pig breeding exists,accelerating the integration of pig industry chain upstream supply end.The trend of differentiated operation of pig farmers is becoming obviously.The domestic pig production industry is increasingly specialized,standardized,and ecofriendly,and also the polices and regulations of pig farmers' operation are being more strictly.The features of the internal production and business operation and external environment of farmers are changing in quality.Due to the influence of changes in the characteristics of their own production and operation and external environment,farmers with different scales and resource endowments have diversified choices in making their production decisions,which bring them unprecedented opportunities and challenges.Based on the hypothesis that farmers,as an economic man,with limited ration take profit maximization as their goal,for farmers in different scales,after integrating their resources endowment,production and business operation characteristics and the changing external environment,it would be of great importance to make production decisions on choosing the reasonable scale of operation and the mode of operation to achieve the optimal allocation of resources under the profit maximization.At the same time,under the guidance of China's country revitalization(2018-2022),it has become a driving force of the supply-side structural reform in agriculture for the government that how it guides farmers in different sizes and with different resources endowment to make reasonable production decision,maximize the comprehensive profit by ecological agriculture circulation,ensure the stable income and improve the structure of animal husbandry production,thus promoting regional animal husbandry,rapid economic growth and effective policy effect.Therefore,from the scale change's point of view,and taking the analysis of the long-term and short-term production behaviors of farmers in different scale as the breakthrough point,we studied the long-term production of scale operation,short-term adjustment and exit and other decision making questions of pig farmers under the new situations of Jilin province,answered the related decision questions through the theoretical and empirical analysis.In addition,in order to put forward the corresponding policy recommendations.Based on finding out the shortage of the current policy and the problems that exist in the implementation process,through the influence of Jilin province pig farmers production decision analysis of policy implementation effect.Based on the research literature at home and abroad about the peasant's household-production behaviors,drawing lessons from existing research results,taking farmer behavior theory,scale economy theory,the cobweb theory,externality theory and related theory as the basis of this article,and adopting the method of questionnaire survey and measurement analysis,we studied pig farmers production decision in Jilin province from the perspective of scale and the main research conclusions are as follows:(1)Based on the analysis of the overall situation of pig breeding in Jilin province,the situation of large-scale pig breeding has been formed and large and medium-sized farmers have gradually become the main carrier of pig breeding in the province.It has been concluded that the situation of pig breeding on a large scale has been formed in Jilin province and the production layout is reasonable.The mode of farming by farmer self-supporting and "enterprise and farmer" cooperative breeding is more common.At present,farmers raise the largest proportion of fattening pigs and get the most considerable income from it.By panel data analysis,the total number of pig farmers in Jilin province is continuously decreasing,among which the substantial decrease of the number of small powder farmers is the main reason for the decrease of the total number of pig farmers.The increase in the number of large and medium-sized farmers has promoted the steady growth of pig production in Jilin province.Thus it can be seen that large and medium-sized farmers have gradually become the main carrier of pig breeding and the situation of large-scale pig breeding has been formed in Jilin phrovince.(2)The analysis result of long-term scale management of Jilin province pig farmers production decision is to take farmers' going-concern assumption as the prerequisite and based on the analysis of operating costs and benefits of pig farmers in different scales: the operating cost and economic benefit of pig farmers of different scales in Jilin province are different.With the expansion of the operating scale the operating cost of pig farmers in Jilin province continuously reduced,the cost profit rate of large farmers is gradually improved,and the advantages of economies of scale are increasingly,and the advantages of economies of large and medium-sized farmers are not prominent,especially the economies of medium and small-scale farmers are not fully reflected.Based on the cost and benefit analysis,the optimal scale of pig breeding in Jilin province was further measured,it has been concluded that the comprehensive efficiency of largescale pig breeding is the highest and strengthening the large-scale pig breeding will be the main development direction in Jilin province.Based on the empirical analysis of the factors influencing the long-term scale operation and production decision of pig farmers in Jilin province and by means of multiple linear regression analysis,it is concluded that the age and policy cognition of pig farmers have negative influence on the long-term scale operation and production decision of farmers.The investment of fixed assets,the education level,capital and external support have a positive impact on farmers' long-term large-scale operation and production decision.(3)The analysis of short-term adjustment of production decision of pig farmers in Jilin province is based on the premise that the farmers' investment in fixed elements of operation does not become a hypothesis.Through the logical analysis of short-term adjustment of production behavior,the reduction of production cost is the internal reason for farmers to adjust their shortterm production factors.A series of policy documents,such as encouraging the combination of planting and breeding and realizing the recycling of agriculture,are the external impetus for farmers to adjust their short-term production factors.According to the analysis of Engle-Granger test,the price of live pigs and the stock,have a short-term causal relationship.The price fluctuation of live pigs is an important factor affecting the short-term output adjustment of farmers.The government's timely release of pig prices and establishment of price warning mechanism would be an effective way to guide farmers to make reasonable short-term output adjustment production decisions.Through logistic regression analysis on the impact factors of farmers' short-term adjustment of production intention,it can be concluded that the short-term adjustment willingness of pig farmers in Jilin province is significantly negatively correlated with the breeding life,expected production cost input,part-time operation and policy cognition.There was significant positive correlation among price expectation,number of breeding sows,contract restriction and labor force.(4)By analyzing the exit situation of pig farmers in Jilin province through panel data,it has been concluded that pig farmers of individual and small-scale in Jilin province are continuing to exit,and especially those in free range are accelerating to exit.Applying multiple linear regression method to analyze the trend of the individual and small-scale farmers out of production in Jilin province,it has been concluded that the hog price fluctuations,profit level,environmental regulation constraint significantly influence on small scattered farmers out of production decisions.In addition,environmental regulation constraint and pig price of Jilin province has the most significant influence on smaller scattered farmers out of production decision.The increasingly strict environmental constraints and the fluctuation range of pig price have a positive effect on the withdrawal of small powder farmers.The profit level is negatively related to the withdrawal of the individual and small-scale farmers.(5)Through the evaluation of production decision-making policies of pig farmers in Jilin province,it has been concluded that farmers have a relatively high awareness of direct subsidy policies and normative subsidy policies.At present,the effect of normative policies on pig breeding in Jilin province is better than that of others.Current government subsidy policies and regulatory policies are inclined to large-scale farmers,especially large and medium-sized farmers.The lack of local rules and regulations restricting the production behavior of pig farmers in Jilin province,which makes the inadaptability between the large-scale development of pig breeding and the development level of pig production capacity,and the benefit advantage of large-scale breeding is not fully play out.Comparing with the existing research results: the innovation of this paper has been mainly reflected in the following aspects: First,based on the size change perspective,taking the longterm and short-term production behavior of the farmers in different size and different resources endowment as the breakthrough point,we answered questions like the quick exit decision,the pig farmers long-term production of scale operation,short-term adjustment and exit decision problems,the industrial integration of large and medium scale farmers,the requirements for the production of small scattered farmers turned to the family farm management,farmers who did not achieve the optimal production scale from short-term to expand production and business operation,and questions from farmers who does not meet the requirements for the production of small scattered,widened the research angles,and enriched the related research content of farmers.Second,this article introduced the circular economy development indicators to analyze the strength of the environment policy of binding while making the empirical analysis to the influence factors of farmers related production decision,which will bring new environmental regulation factors into the decision-making factors affecting the interpretation of the variable,and further verify the environmental regulation factors related to the current farmers,thus enriching the related empirical research results on peasant household production decision.Third,through the analysis of policy implementation affects of pig farmers production decision,put forward suggestions of diverse differentiation subsidies or service policies and standardize the behavior of farmers production scale and improve the local rules. |
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