Study On The Effects Of Carbon Sequestration Of Artificial Afforestation And Its Value Evaluation Under The Carbon Trading Perspective

Effective mitigation of global warming is one of the most important ecological tasks at present,and has become a major environmental problem conceemed by governments and scientists of all countries.As the largest carbon pool on the terrestrial ecosystem,forest carbon sequestration increasing has been considered as a better choice to combated global warming.Artificial afforestation,as one of the main ways to expand forest resources,improve the ecological environment and ease the contradiction between supply and demand of wood in China,plays an important role in improving carbon sequestration and ecological environment protection and reconstruction.It has been incorporated into the main carbon trading systems at home and abroad in the form of projects,which cai provide a path to achieve carbon sequestration value.In general,the goal of bring afforestation into the carbon market is to promote the increasing the amount of carbon sink and provide greater carbon emissions space for economic development of countries by means of economic incentives.Under the background of global climate change and the national carbon market construction,the study on the effects of carbonsequestration of artificial afforestation of typical area and its value evaluation have a great significancefor relevant departments to improving forestry carbon sequestration pricing mechanism and then make full use of market mechanism to achieve the goal of increasing forest sink,and mitigating and adaptingto climate change.What is more,there are few studies in this field.Therefore,this study will select themain afforestation in Diebu County from 2006 to 2015 as the research object and conduct a study on theeffect of carbon sequestration and its value evaluation under the carbon trading perspective.The main contents of the study are as follows:(1)using different types of carbon sink afforestation projects and carbon trading data,the development and trading status of carbon sink of afforestation in China were analyzed.(2)considering the technical requirements of tradable carbon sequestration,the effects of carbon sequestration of main forest stands(Spruce,Pinus tabulaeformis and Robinia pseudoacacia)in the study area was evaluated from the potential and capacity dimensions.(3)the value of carbon sink is was dynamically evaluated in the macro carbon trading market and micro production investment perspective.In the latter case,uncertainties in the value realization of carbon sequestration through carbon trading were also taken into account.(4)the main factors affecting the value of carbon sink were also to be researched and the policy implications of this study are also given.The main research methods were as follows:(1)The potential and capacity of carbon sequestration of the main forest types in the study area were analyzed by establishing physical quantity accounting model;(2)The value evaluation model of carbon sequestration was established from the perspective of market environment by using market value method,and then were to be used to evaluate the value of carbon sequestration of artificial afforestation in the study area;(3)Based on the theory of optimal investment opportunity of real option,a two-stage value evaluation theoretical model of carbon sink was deduced by using dynamic programming method(DPM).The value of carbon sink of the spruce afforestation in Diebu County were evaluated quantitatively.(4)The value of carbon sink were simulated by numerical simulation method under the uncertainty of carbon trading environment and forestry production environment;(5)Using numerical simulation data,influencing factors of carbon sink value was analyzed by arc elasticity coefficient.The main conclusions:(1)with the construction and development of carbon trading market,the value realization of the effects of carbon sequestration through carbon trading has an objective condition.Under this background,the development and trading of afforestation projects for carbon sequestration have been developed rapidly.At present,the development area of afforestation for carbon sequestration based on various projects is 709591hm2,accounting for about 0.27%of China's forest area.The total amount of expected carbon sequestration of those is 242.93 million tCO2e,which indicates that afforestation activities in China have been making great contributions to cope with climate change.(2)the total carbon sequestration potential in 60 years and its annual average carbon sequestration capacity of Spruce,Pinus tabulaeformis and Robinia pseudoacacia plantation planted in 2006?2015 in Diebu County of Gansu Province were 2.841 million tCO2e and 0.047 million tCO2e respectively;Among them,the total carbon sequestration potential and annual average carbon sequestration capacity of spruce in 60 years were 2.505 million tCO2e and 0.042 million tCO2e respectively;(3)Using Market Value Method(MVM),the value evaluation results show that the cumulative and annual average value of carbon sink in 60 years were 17.9773 million yuan and 299.6 thousand yuan respectively.Among them,The cumulative and annual average value of spruce in 60 years were 16.1111 million yuan and 268.5 yuan respectively.(4)considering the flexibility of investors' decision-making and their option value,the value of carbon sequestration of spruce plantation from the perspective of production investment is 35.31 yuan/tCO2e in the planning stage of the project,while the value is 30.54 yuan/tCO2e in the construction stage of project.Because this value is the critical threshold for carbon sequestration production and is obviously higher than the average transaction price of carbon sequestration of 20 yuan/tCO2e,this can implied that the supply of afforestation carbon sink in the study area can not be effectively stimulated by carbon trading.(5)Scenario simulation analysis shows that factors,such as labor price,carbon price volatility and transaction cost have positive effects on the value of critical threshold of carbon sequestration production.While the factors,such as timber price and success rate of project filing,have a negative impact on the value of critical threshold of carbon sequestration production.(6)The results of arc elasticity coefficient measurement show that the price change of wood,labor and the change of carbon price volatility are the most important factors affecting carbon sequestration value of spruce plantation.Based on the above conclusions,the study concludes that:(1)in order to give full play to the role of forestry activities in tackling climate change,effective pricing mechanism of forestry carbon sinks must take full account of the forestry production environment.At the same time,the relevant departments can regulate the supply of forest carbon sinks of the Spruce by using the carbon price control policies,project filing policies,and timely introduction of options and futures trading.(2)From the perspective of carbon sink poverty alleviation through carbon trading,the government should also be explore cooperative development mode for afforestation carbon sink projects suitable for farmers' participation.