Feedback Optimization Method Of Modal Share Forecasting And Line Planning For High-speed Rail

By the end of 2019,the total mileage of China’s high-speed railway has exceeded 35,000 km.In recent years,with the rapid development of high-speed railway,the number of passengers who choose high-speed rail(HSR)to travel has also increased explosively.However,the literature which considers the dynamic relationship between travel choice behavior and high-speed rail line planning is less.From the dynamic point of view,the study of passenger travel choice behavior and the design of a line plan also puts forward new requirements for the passenger transportation planning process.Given that the relationship between the travel choice behavior and the line planning is similar to the feedback control system in cybernetics,this paper studies the interaction between the modal share forecasting and the line planning and presents a feedback optimization framework based on the feedback control principle.According to the framework,a feedback optimization model is proposed,and the related theories and methods are also studied.Our attention is mainly focused on the following aspects:(1)A feedback optimization framework for modal share and line planning of high-speed rail is proposed.Based on the analysis of the influencing factors of the design of the line plan and the design factors of the line plan that affect the travel choice behavior of the passengers,the mechanism of the interaction between the line plan and choice behavior is studied.Based on the feedback control theory and optimization theory,the paper constructs a feedback optimization framework for modal share forecasting and line planning of high-speed rail.(2)Research on passenger travel choice behavior.In order to simplify the research,only the weighted average travel time of transportation mode,the frequency,and the ticket price are selected as the key factors that affect the modal share.Based on the random utility theory,combined with the Nested Logit model,the utility function is presented.BIOGEME is used to estimate the model parameters.Taking the Beijing-Shanghai corridor as an example,some SPs are investigated by designing the SP questionnaires.In addition,a quantitative analysis of the impact of key factors of line planning on passenger travel behavior has also been conducted.Besides,this paper gives a method to guide the optimization and adjustment for HSR line planning.(3)Line planning problem with variable number of carriages and stop time is handled.As we know,the number of carriages and stop time were often considered in a fixed manner in line planning for high-speed rail(HSR).One obvious disadvantage is that the fixed number of carriages may cause a waste of train capacity.To solve the problem,a solution technique based on Dantzig–Wolfe decomposition principle and branch-and-price procedure is proposed.Then,Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail is taken as an example for analysis.(4)The modal share forecasting and line planning feedback optimization model and algorithm are studied.In view of the relationship between passenger travel choice behavior and line planning,a feedback coordination optimization model for modal share forecasting and line planning is constructed.Based on the feedback optimization framework for modal share forecasting and line planning,the model is decomposed into two models: the attraction coefficient calculation model and the multi-objective line planning model,and an iterative algorithm is used to solve them.For the multi-objective model,the fuzzy mathematical method is used to transform it into a single objective programming model.Besides,the Dantzig-Wolfe decomposition technique and column generation algorithm are applied to solving the single objective programming model.Then,the Beijing-Shanghai corridor is taken as an example for analysis.