Research On Cost-effectiveness Analysis Modeling And Method Of Air Defense Missile Weapon System

The evaluation of the cost effectiveness of the air defense missile weapon system is a very important basic theory research subject,which is the guiding problem of guiding the design,development and production,as well as the use,deployment and decision-making of the air defense missile weapon system.More and more attention has been paid to it by all sides.The evaluation of the cost effectiveness of air defense missile weapon system is a very important basic theory research subject,which is the guiding problem of guiding the design and command decision of air defense missile weapon system.The research on it has been paid more and more attention by people.At present,the cost-effectiveness analysis of the air-defense missile weapon system is still in the research stage,and it is also developing with the development of air defense missile weapon system.Many opinions and calculation methods have been put forward to this problem from different aspects,but there is no systematic,targeted and operable whole model.Taking the cost and efficiency of air defense missile weapon system as the research object,this paper analyzes the concept and connotation of life cycle cost?LCC?,system effectiveness and cost-effectiveness analysis based on the selection of system performance index and task decomposition.A model for cost-effectiveness analysis of anti-aircraft missile weapon system is established.Firstly,the methods of cost effectiveness analysis are analyzed and compared.The applicable conditions,advantages and disadvantages of each method are pointed out,and the different methods suitable for different stages of the life cycle of air defense missile weapon system are studied.And the appropriate treatment methods of different performance indexes.The combing and comparative analysis of these methods lay the foundation for modeling the cost and effectiveness of complex anti-aircraft missile weapon systems.Secondly,the LCC model of the whole life cycle cost of the air defense missile weapon system based on the unit price of the missile is established,and the influence of various factors on the air defense missile weapon system is analyzed,and the model comparison is carried out.On the basis of the present situation of the research on the cost of weapon and equipment at home and abroad,the LCC measurement system and parameter model of the anti-aircraft missile weapon system are established from the analysis of the structure of the weapon system's work and the analysis of the cost parameters.Based on the estimation of the unit price of the missile,a new approach to the LCC model of the air defense missile weapon system is put forward.By the multiple regression analysis of a large number of historical data,the indexes in the model are determined.Theinfluence of parameters on the cost,and the use of analogy method,engineering method to research costs,the use of security costs to expand.New technical parameters such as "Guidance precision" and "Target channel number" are introduced into the cost estimation,and a solution is found for the applicability of the cost assessment of the new weapon system.The applicability of the linear model in the LCC measurement of the new anti-aircraft missile weapon system is demonstrated by the comparison and analysis of the nonlinear model.Thirdly,the effectiveness evaluation model of air defense missile weapon system based on ADC?Availability Dependability Capability?method is established.On the basis of ADC model,according to the complexity of anti-aircraft missile weapon system,the path of multi-state and state transition is constructed,fully reflecting the level of reliability of the weapon system,and the availability and dependability model is established.At the same time,the key of the system capability is grasped.The utility function method and the scale method are used to calculate the dimensionality index?Interception remote R,Low bound RL,Target channel number T,Missile number n,System reaction time tr?.The quantitative probability index(Found probability P_G1,Kill probability P_G2)is modeled by parameter method,and the quantitative calculation of the qualitative probability index(Charge ability P_G3,Anti-interference ability P_G4,Viability P_G5) was carried out using the scale method and the Delphi method.Overcoming the deficiency of ADC method,unifying the selection and treatment of capability index,expanding the system capability matrix,taking into account the comprehensive indexes such as command and control ability,anti-jamming ability and survivability;At the same time,the target channels number reflects the multi-target capability of the weapon,avoids the dependence on the target in the calculation of the kill probability of the group target;And takes into account the multiple killing ability against the target,the ability to resist saturation attacks,and the ability to intercept multiple times.It breaks through the limitations of the existing models.The model is accurate and applicable,which makes the evaluation of system efficiency more perfect.Finally,a set of cost-effectiveness analysis method for air defense missile weapon system is proposed,and various methods are combined to establish analytical models for quantitative calculation,which fills up the shortcomings of the current research.Based on LCC and system effectiveness modeling,the study of cost-efficiency ratio is combined with the estimation of LCC and the evaluation of system effectiveness.The LCC and system effectiveness are normalized and dimensionless.The quantitative results of fixed cost,fixed efficiency or cost-effectiveness ratio are obtained,which make the cost-effectiveness analysis of air-defense missile weapon system more specificand convenient for scientific decision-making.Taking Improve HAWK,Patriot PAC-2 and Glomb C-300???-1 as examples,the concrete analysis process and method are described,and made a decision-making trade-off.In this paper,a set of highly targeted,operational models and the analysis of related methods are established,which provides a quantifiable decision-making tool for guiding the development and use of anti-aircraft missile weapon system.Through the comparison of the actual data,the analysis and the example verification,it is reliable and applicable,which can be used for reference in the cost effectiveness evaluation and demonstration planning of weapon system.And also has certain popularization value for other equipment evaluation and analysis.