Research On Weapon System Portfolio Selection Based On Multi-views Value Modeling

Joint operations and system confrontation are becoming the leading forms of modern warfare where the ideas of ?joint"and ?system"are marked not only as the objective of weapon/equipment development but also the way of thinking in weapon/equipment planning.In the weapon/equipment development planning,the weapon system selection is gaining a lot of attention from decision-makers and researchers due to its decisive influence on weapons production,deployment and operations which will affect the consequence of the combat missions.The traditional development planning pattern can no longer follow the pace of generating joint capability by aggregating the weapon/equipment systems from the perspective of SoS.Therefore,the decision-making and management have to emphasize more on developing weapons and equipment in the form of system portfolio considering various weapon systems as a whole for trade-off.Furthermore,the interaction between personels,resources and information from different fields and associations has become available thanks to the development of the information technology,which gives opportunity to more decision-makers to participate in the weapon/equipment development planning.Considering the needs of different decision-makers,evaluating the value of developing weapons and equipment from multi-dimension is the key to escalate the quality and effectiveness of the planning decisions.The study will carry out weapon/equipment planning in the context of joint SoS,implementing weapon system selection by portfolio decision-making theory,designing the weapon system portfolio selection framework from multi-views and presenting methods and solutions.The main contents are as follows:(1)The framework design of weapon system portfolio selection based on multi-view value modelingInstead of the traditional development planning pattern,the weapon system portfolio selection based on multi-view value modeling is commited to investigate how to carry out effective weapon system selection from different perspectives,embedding the weapon development into the context of combat SoS.Based on the theory of multi-view,the value of weapon system portfolio will be modeled from four aspects,namely service,safisfation degree,function and reliability,which reflect the concerns of demonstrators,architecture designers,operation personnels,and logistics support staffs respectively.(2)Weapon system portfolio selection based on service-oriented system analysisThe service-oriented analysis is introduced model the value,mapping the system portfolio to service poorfolio and transferring the weapon system selection into the service portfolio selection.The service network will be constructed based on the mapping relation between the combat missons,services and weapon system,where two features will be extracted to measure the value of service portfolio and establish value model.Then the optimal service portfoliosunder certain constraint assumptions can be obtained by multi-objective programming and the final weapon system portfolios are generated by mapping decoding.(3)Weapon system combination selection based on the evaluation of system satisfaction degreeTo generate the satisfaction degree of weapon system,ER(Evidential Reasoning)method is applied to evaluate the extent to which the weapon systems can fulfill the mission with the exsisting capabilities.The capability of the single weapon system is the input of the evaluation which is presented in the belief structure to measure the satisfaction degree.Based on the belief-rule base and the hierarchical structure of the weapon systems,the satisfaction degree of each system will be aggregated to achieve the overall satisfaction degree of the above weapon system portfolio.The result will serve as the value of weapon system portfolio to facilite the selection.(4)Weapon system combination selection based on the founction analysisThe top-down decomposition of operational effectiveness into function indicators of the weapon systems is carried out and the supporting role of each function is summed up.Based on the correlation analysis of the function indicators,the collaboration of weapon systems and support of operational functions regarding the combat activities sequences with different correlations are analyzed.Real-time data collected in the simulated operation is used to calculate the value of each function indicator of the weapon systems with MINE correlation analysis,andn then the values of each function indicator are aggregated to measure the value of the system portfolio in the model.(5)Weapon system combination selection based on the system reliability evaluationChoose the remaining life of the weapon system,specifically the remaining life of the engine as the object of the reliability evaluation.The model of engine degradation is established with the features extracted through the variation coefficient method and the principal component analysis(PCA)from the simulation data in the software C-MAPSS.By comparing the trajectories in the trajectory phase space and the ones in the model,the remaining life is estimated.The remaining life will serve as the value in selecting the more superior weapon system portfolios regarding engine performance.