The Research Of The Collection Management On End-of-Life Vehicles

In most countries,the automobile industry is one of the largest industries and a pillar industry of the national economy.The increase in the production and sales of automobiles in the automobile industry will also lead to an increase in end-of-life vehicles(ELV).According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics,China's civilian car increased from 19 million in 2005 to 141 million in 2018,an increase of 10.5 times in 13 years.Obviously,as the car ownership increases,the ELV will increase significantly.According to statistics,the ELV in China reached 6 million in 2016,and it is expected to exceed 12 million in 2020.The collection of ELVs is the requirement of sustainable development and circular economy,which has certain economic value while improving the efficiency of resource utilization and reducing environmental pollution.Basing on a summary of current studies on ELV collection management and in reference to related research results,this thesis introduces a model-based method to realize accurate prediction of ELV collection volume.Considering the ELV online collection channel,this thesis introduces a collection channel design that covers both offline and online channels and on the basis of which discusses the pricing of ELV collection operations under different government financial subsidy policies as well as the impact of such subsidy policies on the reverse supply chain.Finally,based on the prediction research with respect to ELV collection,methods for efficiency evaluation of ELV collection are proposed for the purpose of realizing efficiency optimization.The specific research contents and conclusions of this thesis are as follows:(1)A study on the prediction of ELV collection based on gray model and artificial neural networkThe forecasting process is able to judge future fluctuation of operational indicators such as collection quantity,operation revenue,consumer preference and demand for remanufactured products.Accurate forecasting of collection is the prerequisite for companies to make correct decisions.Due to many uncertainties involved in the actual collection of ELVs and how the interrelationships between such uncertainties affect prediction accuracy,there are certain limitations on the accurate prediction of ELV collection.In order to achieve higher prediction accuracy,this thesis proposes the use of a recovery volume prediction model constructed on the basis of grey model,exponential smoothing method and artificial neural network with particle swarm optimization,which address the issues such as randomness and nonlinearity in the time series of ELV collection and the influence of various fluctuation factors on the prediction accuracy thereof.The prediction model can guide relevant enterprises in collection predictions.Accurate prediction with respect to the volume of ELV collection supports the development of better overall strategy for the entire industry and the effective planning by individual enterprise in the industry with respect to its production and operation.(2)A study on ELV collection from both online and offline channelsEnd-of-live vehicles,through collection channels,undergo the process of ELV reverse supply chain including dismantling,reuse and remanufacturing.Since the online operation is more convenient for consumers,more and more ELV collection operations are conducted through online channels rather than traditional offline channels.Compared with the collection of other products,that of ELVs requires vehicle owners to go through many complex procedures,in which case the one-stop convenient service that can be achieved through online channels has become a major advantage welcomed by consumers.Based on the above-said consumer preferences,this thesis proposes a reverse supply chain consisting of remanufacturers of ELV parts as well as other companies and remanufacturers in the ELV collection industry and consumers of relevant products.By a comparative analysis of the traditional offline collection channels,online collection channels and a combination of both,this thesis discusses the channel design strategies for ELV collection,and the results of which can serve as a reference for actual channel design in the industry.(3)A study on pricing of ELV collection in the context of government subsidiesThe pricing of collection has a strong bearing on the willingness of the consumers who need to abandon their vehicles to have them disposed of through the collection channels.Considering the relatively low overall volume of ELV collection in China,in order to encourage ELV collection for the purpose of better resource utilization and protecting the environment,the Chinese government provides financial subsidies for the collection of parts of ELVs for remanufacturing and other purposes.Remanufacturing with ELV parts has high economical and practical value because this method helps effectively improve resource utilization and reduce environmental pollution while greatly reducing production costs.Based on the study on the design of collection channels as stated above,this thesis proposes to establish government subsidy models covering different subsidy polices and try to find the best subsidy policy by a comparative analysis of said models and which analysis should involve a discussion over the optimal pricing,profit and recovery rate in the reverse supply chain of scrapped vehicle parts in the context of each subsidy policy.(4)A study on the DEA-TOPSIS evaluation of ELV collection efficiencyCollection efficiency assessment evaluates the cyclical operational efficiency of enterprises in the reverse supply chain.These enterprises include third-party ELV recyclers,ELV dismantlers and ELV part remanufacturers They seek scientific and feasible solutions for operation and decision on the basis of recycling efficiency evaluation.Based on previous research of recycling forecasting model,an efficiency evaluation model based on DEATOPSIS is proposed in this chapter.It uses DEA to measure the efficiency.The construction of recycling efficiency evaluation model can guide enterprises to carry out specific collection efficiency evaluation,and the evaluation results can be applied to the production and operation practice of ELVs collection enterprises.ELV collection is an important approach for achieving sustainable resource utilization and circular economy.For the purpose of enriching the theoretical research of and providing more practical methods for ELV collection management,this thesis discusses in depth various aspects in such management,including collection forecast,collection channel design,pricing strategy and efficiency evaluation in the context of government subsidies.