Research On Characteristics And Regularities Of Air Traffic Congestion Propagation

As the air traffic is more congested,the research on air traffic congestion and its propagation is fewer and focuses on the flight delay propagation and the phase state of air traffic flow.The intact theoretical system of air traffic congestion propagation has not formed at present.This paper focuses on an aircraft's performance and correlation in air traffic congestion propagation from the micro perspective.This paper probes mainly into five aspects,air traffic congestion propagation definition,characteristic analysis,model,model for fast-prediction and control,they provide the decision foundation for the control on air traffic networks.Air transportation system consists of airport and airspace,and they have respective characteristics.So the research of air traffic congestion can be devided into airport congestion and airspace congestion.(1)Definition for air traffic congestion propagation based on aircrafts' s correlation.Analyzing the primary cause of congestion propagation from the micro perspective,the aircrafts are divided into different clusters based on the correlation strength or quantity between aircrafts.And the transformation of different clusters is defined as the congestion propagation.(2)Characteristics analysis of congestion propagation based on the propagation process.From the definition and process analysis of congestion propagation,as well as the fluctuation characteristic analysis,there are time lags and network structure in spatio-temporal traffic data.And the congestion propagations in different sectors with similar network structure show similarities on propagation trend and propagation size.Based on the analysis above,the comparison between congestion propagation and epidemic transmission,which is one of the most classic dynamics model on complex networks,provides the mathematics foundation for congestion propagation model.(3)Modelling congestion propagation models on air traffic networks.Based on the characteristic analysis and operation on airports and airspace,the congestion propagation models on airspace networks and departure from airport are built.Due to the impacts from events and cyclophysis,congestion propagation model in multi-event and multi-stage on airport network is built to reveal the congestion propagation regularity of departure flights on airports.And based on the essential factor of operation on cross traffic and airspace structure,the congestion propagation models on cross traffic and airspace are built to reveal the congestion propagation regularity on airspace networks.(4)Modelling congestion propagation models on air traffic networks for fast-prediction.Simplifying the models above,the models on different stages or time periods are built to meet the requirements of fast-prediction.Clustering analysis and “similar day” or “typical day” choosing based on big data can help us build the fast-prediction process of congestion propagation on air traffic networks.At the same time,the computing methods of model parameters can be used for fast-prediction of congestion propagation trend and size by parameter analysis and simulation.(5)Modelling control and management of air traffic congestion propagation.Based on the method research of congestion control in air traffic networks,disruption management and flight planning,the models for control strategies,based on the slot assignment,threshold and combining both of two,provide mathematic and theoretical basis for the control and management of congestion propagation.Finally,based on the research of congestion propagation characteristics and regularity in the paper,some deficiencies are point out,for example multi-event coupling,control performance level and human factors.Overcoming the above shortcomings,the model of congestion propagation on air traffic networks is closer to reality.