Study On Investment Decision Systems And Methods Of Green Production Capacity In Ship Manufacturing Enterprises

With the rapid economic growth and the steady increasing of industrial products investment in our country,the lack of energy and environment pollution have become the bottleneck and restricted the economic development.Serious overcapacity has appeared in manufacturing industry in recent years.According to the data released by China's Bureau of Statistics in 2015,Chinese manufacturing industry such as the utilization rate of crude steel is66.99%,and average utilization rate in the past eight years is 74.98%.According to the international common standards,the capacity utilization rate below 79% is overcapacity,and below 75% is serious overcapacity.According to China's industry operation report,overcapacity is common,which exists in not only traditional manufacturing industry,but also has penetrated into a lot of emerging industries and financial industries.As a result,the economic efficiency of investment in most industries has been greatly reduced,resulting in a total loss.To the shipbuilding industry and shipping business,environmental pollution has been the focus in the international community.Therefore,constructing “green ships” with low emissions,low fuel consumption,energy conservation and environmental protection has become an inevitable trend in the development of shipping industry.“Green ships” have their own standards,from design,operation,repair,until dismantling,the scientific investment in green production capacity has become an important way for survival and development of shipbuilding enterprise.This thesis constructed a process system for green production capacity investment of shipbuilding enterprises.Through systematically analyzing the influence factors of shipping manufacturing investment decision in green capacity,it constructs the index system of decision making of green production capacity investment,tapping the characteristics and categories of decision making of green production capacity investment,finally determine the decision making of green production capacity investment direction and provide the best investment strategy through visualized K-DT model with continuous property,which has theoretical and practical significance on green sustainable development and curbing the blind investment and repeat building in the economy.Firstly,defining and charactering the connotation of production capacity investment,green production capacity investment and decision making of green production capacity investment in shipbuilding enterprises.By analyzing the status and major problems in decision making of green production capacity investment,construct the content framework of decision making of green production capacity investment for shipbuilding enterprises and analyze the logical relationship between the research contents.Secondly,the influence factors on decision making of green production capacity investment in the shipbuilding enterprises are identified.First of all,based on the literature of influencing factors for decision making of green production capacity investment,explored the influence factors based on grounded theory analysis method with interviews by open coding,axial coding,selective coding and saturation test of theoretical model.Thirdly,index system of decision-making on green production capacity investment is constructed.Analyzing the selection principle and selecting the decision making of green production capacity investment index for the shipbuilding enterprises,then using factor analysis,descriptive statistics,reliability and validity test,to screen the indexes of green production capacity investment on decision-making.Establishing the research hypotheses and theoretical models and analyzing the internal mechanism of influencing factors.Fourthly,constructing the second-order cloud model of decision making of green production capacity investment to obtain the decision making index and membership degree for shipbuilding enterprises,and analyze uncertainty characteristics.By depicting the center point and the category distance attribute of the green capacity investment decision,this thesis makes a clustering analysis on the investment decision of the green capacity of the shipbuilding enterprises,and deeply excavate the levels,categories and characteristics of the green productivity investment,and make an empirical analysis of the investment decision of the green capacity of the shipbuilding enterprises.Fifthly,constructing a continuous attribute KADT algorithm to predict and classify the green capacity investment decision of the shipbuilding enterprises.The experimental results show that KADT could effectively reduce the size of decision tree,especially the depth.Classify and predict the type of capacity investment of decision making of green production capacity investment.According to KADT,the investment attribute of green capacity is divided and the classification results of green capacity investment decision are given,which provides the best strategic decision for the green capacity investment decision,and thereference for the shipbuilding enterprises to optimize the green capacity investment.Finally,according to the actual decision guarantee mechanism and prediction decision results,the safeguard measures of green production capacity investment decision for shipbuilding enterprises are put forward.This study constructs and puts forward the decision-making process system of the green capacity investment in shipbuilding enterprises,including the identification and analysis method of influencing factors based on grounded theory,the clustering method of feature recognition and the decision tree classification of category prediction.The decision theory is extended to the field of uncertain attribute green capacity investment decision-making,which extends the research scope of investment decision theory and method.