| Since the Plant-Grid separation in 2002,the electricity market have been divided to the net company as the only buyer and generate companies as competitiveness.Because the coal-power unit owned over 70 percentage of the generate electricity market,this research would focus on the coal-power market.For keeping the electricity market to run soomthly,a series of generate electricity market regulatory policy,such as survival price of the separate power plant,Benchmark Price,Coupled Coal-power policy,Approval system of Enterprise Investment Project,and Replacing small units with large ones,have been orderly carried out.Under the complex economical circumstances,for the implementation of the correlated regulatory policy,there are many positive effect,such as the unit structure has been optimized progressively,the social average coal consumption has been decreased continually,the power supply ability has been increased substantially,on the other hand,there are many problems such as the coal-power price contradiction was worsen,the generate electricity industry lost the profitability.For pushing the electricity market reform,it was very importment to study the regulatory policy systemly,to find the reason of the problem,and to discover the way for adjusting the policy.At first,Based on analyzing the characteristic of the electricity industry and the experience or lesson of the electricity market reform in the other country,the research use the regulatory economical theory to reveal the essential motive and meaning about the electricity market reform,to study deeply and systemly the transferring period regulatory policy and the change of market structure in generation sector.The results show that:(1)The electricity industry must be regulated by government for its characteristic.(2)Under the situation of developing economic quickly,expending electricity market and improving tenchnology,the essential meaning of the electricity market reform is to adjust the regulation method for implementing the limited competition in partly segment,through using the loosen regulatory economical theory.(3)In the transferring period,the implemented regulatory policy was the economical regulatory method for realizing the reform goal,was the important component element of the electricity market reform.Second,by the idea of supply chain capacity management and the modeling method of rate fundamental in-tree in the SD,the research constructed the three-step modeling method of the earlier rate fundamental in-tree model,and built a electrical supply chain capacity management dynamics model.Then the research built a simplified rate fundamental in-tree model,and used the method of feedback loop branch vector determinant algorithm to calculate the feedback loop.Finally,based on the characteristic of feedback loop and feedback loop set,the research used the cause&effect link analyzing method to analyse all 12 feedback loops one by one,and to find out the key cause&effect link,and to reveal the main reason of Recurring Electrical Scarcity.The research built a new three-step counterplan generation method,and revealed orderly the implementation tactics for lessening the Electrical Scarcity.The results show that:(1)The intrinsic factor of the Electrical Scarcity was the timeliness of the Coupled Coal-power policy implementation,which has caused lower power price、inspired to close the old unit、decreased the new unit investment、and promoted the power demand.(2)The promoter factor of the Electrical Scarcity was the delay effect which has been caused by the Approval system of Enterprise Investment Project&the project building,and the change of the external climate or environment.(3)The implementation tactics for lessening the Electrical Scarcity included to promote the government implementing the Coupled Coal-power policy timely、to carry out the old unit closing and the new unit building harmonically、to improve the forecast precision of the power demand for economic development、and to upgrade the velocity&efficiency of the new unit building.Finally,the research constructed a countable evaluation index system to express the abstract reform demand and the regulatory goals,then constructed a rate variable based in-tree model which included 64 equations and 5 trees,through using the step by step modeling and analysing method-the method of rate variable based in-tree in the SD,to study quantitatively the effect of correlated regulatory policy implementation.The results show that:(1)The key factor of the implementing effect in the Coupled Coal-Power policy included the lowest linkage coal price rises,the linkage ratio,the coal price increase,and the timeliness of the policy implementation.(2)The main factor of the implementing effect in the other regulatory policy,such as Benchmark Price,Approval system of Enterprise Investment Project,and Replacing small units with large ones,included the different profitability,the lost of the survival ability of the old unit,and the reliability of the power demand forecasting.(3)If the improving way was carried which controlled the coal price rises and power demand,and adjusted the lowest coal price rises and the linkage ratio,it would lead to relief the coal and power price contradiction,to improve the unit profitability,to inspire the investment,and to promote the power supply and demand balance.By this way,this paper has revealed policy decision foundation for adjusting the regulatory policy. |
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