Electricity Consumption S Law And China Electricity Demand Prediction

Electricity is the symbol of modern industrial civilization,and is the basic inputs of production and necessity of ordinary livings.With the development of economy,electric industry plays an increasingly important role in national economy.Due to the special properties of electricity,as well as its important role in the national economy and long term investment cycle,electricity is key point of plan on Energy Development.The precondition of scientific planning is the accurate forecast of electricity consumption,whose precondition is knowledge on the relationship between electricity consumption and economic development.Therefore,this article takes a pragmatic approach to examination of intrinsic relation between electricity consumption and economic development using the historical data of past 100 years from 116 countries and regions.Moreover,this article gives a projection of China electricity consumption in future 20 years.The main research objects and results are:This analysis shows that there are four trace of the relations between electricity consumption and GDP:S curve,C curve,twisting curve,and creeping curve.GDP of the countries with S curves is accounting for more than 70%of the world GDP in recent 60 years,and 78%in recent 10 years.Then this article takes a pragmatic approach to examination of S low between electricity consumption and economic development using the historical data of past 100 years from 18 developed countries and regions.There are three different S curve patterns:high S curve,middle S curve,and low S curve.The patterns of electricity consumption in different economic development stages are characterized by different transitional thresholds,which are here referred to as the takeoff point,turning point,and zero-growth point of the electricity consumption per capita.The corresponding GDP per capita intervals are 6000-8000 dollars,16000-18000 dollars,and 21000-23000 dollars,respectively.Using the three thresholds,the S curve can be divided into four transitional phase:slow growing phase,rapid growing phase,growth declining phase,and the stagnant phase.Moreover,the article exam the relation between electricity consumption structure,economic,industrial structure,urbanization rate and GDP per capita,respectively.The analysis forms a foundation for forecast of electricity demands in different development stages in different countries.This article base the foundation forecast the electricity demand in China for future 20 years.