Study On The Modeling And Application Of Key Factors Affecting Carbon Emission

As we all know,CO₂ emissions are the main cause of global warming.Reducing CO₂ emissions is not only a global consensus except for a few countries,but also a hot research topic in the field of energy and environmental management.However,the global consumption of fossil energy leads to more and more serious situation of CO₂emission.The rapid development of urbanization and industrialization in China demands more and more energy.Especially today,the ways of emission reduction are more and more diverse,the environment of emission reduction is more and more changeable,the trend of emission reduction is more and more uncertain,and the main body of emission reduction is more and more extensive.With the entry into force of the Paris Agreement,the pressure of emission reduction in China is increasing as it becomes larger and larger,how to formulate effective emission reduction policies is an important issue that our government urgently needs to solve.In order to carry out scientific carbon emission management and carbon emission reduction policy formulation,first of all,we should comprehensively analyze the composition,change trend of the driving factors of carbon emissions from the essence of the carbon emission market,reveal the influencing mechanism of the relevant factors that can effectively reflect the characteristics of carbon emissions,and realize real-time assessment of carbon emission policies.All these are the key scientific problems urgently needed to be solved by the Institute of Management Science.This is not only conducive to the decomposition of carbon emission reduction targets,but also conducive to the formulation of differentiated carbon emission reduction policies.Meanwhile,it has important theoretical and practical significance for promoting energy conservation,emission reduction and coordinated economic and social development.In addition,foreign direct investment?FDI?,corruption,internet penetration and tax burden are the focus and hot issues of 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China.It is essential to study the impact of these key factors on carbon emissions.Therefore,in order to help China achieve its established carbon emission reduction goals and improve its own environment,it is essential to help the government achieve its emission reduction goals by studying the key influencing factors of China's carbon emissions and putting forward targeted policy recommendations.Based on the above research background,this paper studies the key factors affecting carbon emissions.The specific research contents are as follows:First,we study the impact of FDI on carbon emissions.As the world's largest steel producer and one of the industries with the highest carbon dioxide emissions,China's iron and steel industry is the mainstay of China's national economy,as well as the main energy users and carbon emitters.China's iron and steel industry is experiencing a low-carbon transformation.Determining the main driving force of carbon dioxide emissions in China's iron and steel industry is crucial for reducing its emissions and formulating effective environmental policies.Interestingly,many drivers of carbon dioxide emissions in the steel industry have been explored,but the relationship between the FDI and carbon emissions in the steel industry has not yet been tested empirically.In particular,previous studies neglected the non-linear relationship between economic variables,and mostly used time series data to study the driving factors of carbon dioxide emissions in the industry nationwide.However,the regional differences and industry-level research did not receive due attention.In this chapter,using the provincial panel data of China from 2000 to 2015,the relationship between China's economic growth,carbon dioxide emissions from iron and steel industry and FDI is analyzed by using the simultaneous equation model estimated by the three-stage least squares method?3SLS?.The results show that there is a complete three-variable two-way causal relationship between the whole country and the western region,while the relationship between the eastern region and the central region is incomplete.There is no two-way causality between carbon emissions and FDI in the eastern region,but only two-way causality between carbon emissions and FDI in the central region.These findings are of great significance to the relevant departments of China in formulating appropriate energy policies and planning for the iron and steel industry.Second,we study the impact of corruption on carbon emissions.It is increasingly recognized that corruption has a significant negative impact on the economy and carbon emissions.However,few studies have provided theoretical or empirical analysis on the relationship between corruption and carbon emissions growth in China.This chapter attempts to fill this gap through ARDL model and panel quantile regression model.Based on the panel data of China's provinces from 1998 to 2016,this chapter studies the impact of long-term and short-term corruption on per capita carbon emissions in China.Then on the base of these,we study the impact of corruption on carbon emissions per capita with the heterogeneous distribution of per capita carbon emissions.The results show that the corruption will increase per capita carbon emissions in China's provinces in the short run.However,in the long run,the corruption will help reduce per capita carbon emissions in China's provinces.In addition,corruption has a significant positive impact on per capita carbon emissions in all quantile statistics levels,which indicates that per capita carbon emissions will increase with the severity of corruption.Moreover,the coefficients of low-level are slightly larger than those of high-level,indicating that corruption leads to more carbon emissions in some provinces with lower per capita carbon emissions.Third,we study the impact of Internet penetration on carbon emissions.This paper investigates the associations between the Internet penetration and CO₂emissions by developing an empirical analysis framework with consideration of the different development stages and carbon emission levels based on a balanced panel dataset of 92 economies over the period from 1995 to 2014.The finding suggests there is heterogeneity regarding the effect of Internet penetration on CO ₂ emissions reduction across the economies based on their levels of carbon emissions.Specifically,it reveals that compared with developed countries,an increase in the Internet penetration is more likely to cause a decline to carbon emissions in developing countries.In addition,when looking into the internal difference of both groups,we find that for developed countries,the increase of the Internet penetration has a much greater effect on reducing carbon emissions in economies with lower level of carbon emissions than those with higher carbon emissions.By contrast,for developing countries,the increase of the Internet penetration has a much greater effect on reducing carbon emissions in economies with higher carbon emissions than those with lower carbon emissions.The impact of Internet penetration on CO₂ emissions reduction therefore should be taken into account in future discussions of climate change polices.Fourth,we study the impact of tax burden on the carbon emissions,with a view to providing reference for the construction of low-carbon fiscal and taxation policies in China.The ultimate realization of carbon emission reduction target needs to rely on the regulation of carbon emission policy,and taxation is one of the most common policies.However,as a kind of fiscal and financial policy,tax policy will cause economic fluctuation.Tax burden is often regarded as an effective policy tool to achieve environmental protection goals,but the impact of tax burden on emission reduction is uncertain.To solve this problem,according to the data of 21 OECD countries from 1991 to 2014,we use the ratio of tax to GDP to represent tax burden,and use panel quantile model with non-additive fixed effect to analyze the relationship between tax burden and CO₂ emissions.The results show that:firstly,the impact of tax burden on CO₂ emissions varies with different levels of CO₂ emissions in different countries,but the U-shaped relationship between tax burden and CO₂emissions is always supported.That is to say,carbon emissions will initially decrease with the increase of tax burden,and when the tax burden exceeds the threshold,carbon emissions then will increase with the increase of tax burden.Especially among all the factors affecting the carbon emissions of OECD countries,the tax burden of most OECD countries has the greatest impact on carbon dioxide emissions.Secondly,the control variables also have different effects on CO2 emissions in different quantiles.Per capita GDP,energy intensity,population size and trade openness have a positive impact on carbon emissions of different economies under different CO₂emission levels,while urbanization level has a heterogeneous impact on carbon dioxide emissions in different quantiles.Thirdly,our main conclusion on tax burden is robust and reliable.The conclusions of this chapter have important policy guiding significance for policy makers.Governments around the world should keep their tax burden within a reasonable range in the process of reducing carbon emissions.