| According to the guiding ideology of China’s "two screens and three belts"ecological security strategy,as well as the international,national and local ecosystem services and social and economic development situation,focusing on the fact that the development of human society and the unreasonable use of natural resources lead to the decline of ecosystem service capacity and natural disasters,this study is conducive to providing scientific and technological support for ecosystem upgrading in theory,In practice,we should promote the adjustment of rural industrial structure in Xiangxi.Based on the differences and shortcomings of current ecosystem service evaluation,this paper summarizes the ecosystem services in various fields at home and abroad and the collaborative development relationship under the coupling influence factors of ecological environment,natural disaster and social economy,further clarifies the development and change rules of ecosystem services and social economic indicators,clarifies the influence relationship characteristics between various factors,and analyzes the regional ecology The characteristics of the coordinated development between system service and social economy in ethnic areas aims to provide suggestions and suggestions for the coordinated development of regional ecology and social economy,which is of great significance to the sustainable operation of ecosystem service and the sustainable development of society.According to the specific situation of the hilly and mountainous areas in South China,taking the typical karst landform and terrain features of Xiangxi Tujia and Miao Autonomous Prefecture with high forest coverage as an example,combined with remote sensing,statistical yearbook,investigation and research,government website,media related data,integrated multi-source,multi-scale,multi type index data,selected the correlation analysis and linear regression related to the collaborative development mode In this paper,mathematical statistical analysis methods such as regression analysis and principal component analysis,as well as artificial neural network and qualitative pest scenario analysis are used for in-depth study.Based on the Landsat TM remote sensing image of land use change in Xiangxi Prefecture during 1980-2018,this paper analyzes the annual land use change rate,spatial nuclear density and transfer change by using GIS analysis method.The results show that from 1980 to 2018,the cropland area of Xiangxi Prefecture is decreasing,the urban construction land area is increasing,the ecosystem service value is decreasing,and the ecological function is declining year by year;the spatial change analysis shows that the urban construction land is expanding from the state center to the surrounding area,the paddy field of each city and county is evolving towards the pattern of hollowing out of the living area,and the forest land is evolving towards the pattern of marginalization.In terms of social economy,the total population of Xiangxi Prefecture is increasing,the rural population is decreasing,and the tertiary industry is gradually replacing the secondary industry to occupy the leading position;based on the spatial change analysis of the data source based on the kilometer grid data set of social economic spatial distribution such as GDP and population,it is found that the rural population in each county and district of Xiangxi Prefecture is moving towards the urban area,the rural hollowing out is prominent,and the gap between the urban and rural GDP is clear Obviously.In terms of meteorological environment,the changes between annual precipitation and humidity extremes in Xiangxi are relatively scattered,while the annual average temperature and light are relatively concentrated;based on the spatial interpolation data sets of meteorological environment such as average temperature and annual precipitation,the spatial analysis shows that the boundaries of annual precipitation between extreme years move obviously,and the boundaries of annual temperature do not move obviously,and the temporal and spatial changes have According to the characteristics of repeated or alternate changes,the corresponding crops and meteorological disasters show a certain development law of periodic fluctuations with the annual changes.Using R-language mapping and SPSS statistical method,the correlation,regression and principal component analysis of ecosystem services and socio-economic indicators were conducted.The results showed that:(1)from 1980 to 2018,cropland and urban construction area showed a competitive relationship,ecosystem service value and cropland,woodland,grassland,total population and urban population,GDP and tertiary industry,annual precipitation and average humidity During the research period,the proportion of cultivated land in the total land use,the proportion of rural population in the total population,and the proportion of the added value of the primary industry in GDP showed a synchronous decline in the collaborative development relationship,and the rapid development of urbanization had a negative effect on ecosystem services;(3)from 2009 to 2018 The average temperature has a negative correlation with grain yield,and the precipitation from 2008 to 2012 has a significant correlation with direct economic loss,flood area and grain yield reduction in different periods,showing a collaborative development relationship.Based on more than 20 index factors of ecosystem and social economy,macro nonlinear data indexes such as total population,gross domestic product,planting area,grain yield,annual precipitation,annual average temperature,disaster area,which have a great relationship with ecosystem services,are selected,and an artificial neural network forecast analysis of ecosystem services under the coupling of disaster environment and social economy is constructed Collaborative development research.The results show that ecosystem services are declining,and the per capita GDP is increasing slowly,which reflects the trend that ecosystem services and social economy are difficult to develop in coordination;the generalized weight analysis shows that the factors of GNP and grain yield have a great impact on ecosystem services,so it is better to give priority to the decision of GDP Based on agricultural production,and coordinate the coupling degree,so as to obtain GDP has a better coordinated development with ecosystem services and per capita GDP.Based on the prediction and analysis of the artificial neural network of farmland ecosystem and rural economic development,it is concluded that the comparable growth rate of agricultural development in Xiangxi Prefecture and its counties and cities shows a trend of decreasing volatility;the priority should be given to the decision of effective irrigation area to promote the coordinated development of farmland ecosystem and rural social economic development.In combined with the political and social situation of Xiangxi Prefecture and the 13th five year plan for national economic and social development,and together with the indicators such as emissions of three wastes,disasters,tourism income and per capita disposable income of incomplete data,the qualitative method of scenario analysis based on pest is supplemented and integrated into pest-swot model.In view of the above-mentioned theoretical analysis problems,the decision-making is merged,assimilated or integrated simultaneously State system services and socio-economic indicators develop together,and the results are as follows:Introducing science and technology to the countryside in the period of social development opportunity can solve the problem of farmland hollowing out,promote the coordinated development of farmland ecology and agricultural economy,change the weak economic foundation as the advantage in the relationship between human and land,promote the coordinated development of ecosystem services and rural per capita disposable income,and combine the forest advantage and rural population in Xiangxi with the policy opportunity of nature reserves and local tourism challenge Make up for the weakness of hollowing and promote the coordinated development of forest ecosystem services and social population employment,Through scientific and technological innovation to solve the technical challenges and promote the water ecosystem services and agricultural economic recovery and collaborative development,and under the comprehensive guidance of the macro policy of environmental protection to promote the rural social and economic revitalization of Xiangxi and the coordinated development of ecosystem services in Wuling mountain area.In the future,the research will be carried out in the way of decision-making support,and better applied in the southern regional ecosystem services and the coordinated development of human society and economy,so as to further explore the collaborative promotion mode of ecosystem service capacity and rural community development,and strive to achieve the coordinated progress of regional economic and social development and ecological environment protection. |
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