Scenario Study Of Land Use Change And Hazard Risk Exposure For Future Chongming Eco-islands

Chongming holds an irreplaceable ecological strategic position in the Yangtze River Delta.The urge to explore the approaches to its sustainability,is coming from the ecosystem vulnerability of the islands,as well as the sustainable development needs of coastal regions.This study reviewed and summarized the complex coupled human and natural system throughout the evolution of Chongming,which is the result of feedback loops between decision-driven human activities and natural processes,in this case,the characteristics are mostly reflected on the land use change the three islands of Chongming District.Therefore,the study focused on the land use of Chongming,and designed 3 land use change scenarios based on different future developing strategies with different sets of drivers taken into account.Using GeoSOS-FLUS software to construct an ANN-CA(Cellular Automata based on Artificial Neuro Network)model,the study then simulated the distribution of different land use types of Chongming in 2035.Besides analyzing the land use area and spatial distribution of different scenarios,the study also designed 4 hazard scenarios according to different water level under different sea level rise and different return period of storm surge.The quantity of possible overflow was then calculated,and the inundated area was mapped for a risk exposure analysis.Finally,using Google Earth Engine,the study created an interactive visualization map to showcase all the scenarios.In the light of the multi-scenario results,the study concluded that the future land use distribution should evolve towards the simulation result of scenario 3,and gave a few suggestions for land rearrangement and future planning accordingly,as well as pointed out the weaknesses of early warning and preparation for assuring ecological security.