| At present,global warming and worsening environmental pollution have become a serious challenge to the survival and development of all mankind.People have found that the co2 greenhouse effect is as high as 77%,carbon source,the power industry,combustion of fossil fuels can be called "culprit",China’s power industry accounts for the total emissions of carbon dioxide emissions by about 40%,carbon dioxide emissions produced by coal-fired power generation accounts for 93% of total amount of the electric power industry,much higher than the average level of developed countries around the world.Needless to say,the resource endowment of "multi-coal,poor oil,and less gas" decides that the rapid development of China’s economic and social development is at the expense of the environment,and the stage of high carbon economic development is inevitable.For a long time,China environmental and sustainable supply of energy value degree is not enough,the economic development of China’s past high carbon type model and the energy consumption is not sustainable.As an energy strategy center,the power industry plays an important role in the development of social economy and should be the main force of China’s carbon emission reduction task.Developing low-carbon electricity is the inevitable choice for China to realize sustainable economic and energy development.The Chinese government is in the long-term strategic vision attaches great importance to the problem of global warming,actively develop low-carbon strategy,developing low-carbon economy,committed to carbon emissions,realize the low-carbon energy and low-carbon electricity development.In view of this,the paper based on the theory of low carbon economy,the energy of carbon emissions,various possible factors affecting carbon emissions,carbon trading and the carbon potential of the electric power industry,and the current research progress of low carbon power planning in many aspects,such as the study of literature.This paper analyzes the development status of China’s power industry,summarizes the current situation and characteristics of carbon emission in China’s power industry,and summarizes the progress of China’s electricity emissions and the current development constraints.Then,based on the differential dynamic game model and the panel data VAR model of the monopoly power enterprises,the research on low carbon power social welfare and low carbon power investment behavior in China is carried out.Finally,based on CVaR model,built by the company and the risk neutral power enterprise in risk aversion of low-carbon electricity supply chain channel decision model,the low carbon electricity demand information sharing decision-making problems is studied and its value.According to the research ideas of the dissertation,the dissertation mainly did the following work:(1)Based on the panel structure VAR model constructed,micro-level financial data obtained from the financial reports of low-carbon power companies listed on the A-shares listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets from the first quarter of 2003 to the second quarter of 2013 were obtained.The dynamic relationship between investment,cash flow,Tobin Q and debt ratio of low-carbon power companies was studied,and parameters were identified by constructing a directed acyclic graph.Analyze the determinants of investment behavior of low-carbon power companies,and describe the dynamic response mechanism of investment behavior of low-carbon power projects with clearer quantitative descriptions.(2)The traditional mode of power generation has negatively impacted the survival and development of the environment and human beings.From the perspective of social welfare theory,it has negative externalities.As a power generation enterprise pursuing its own profit maximization,it often does not pay compensation for negative effects.Coupled with the fixed effect of power generation companies on carbon.Therefore,the social planners’ responsibilities are indispensable in the decision-making and practice of low-carbonization in the power industry.By establishing a differential dynamic game model for dual-oligopoly power companies,the role of altruistic behavior and negative externality of carbon emissions in power production decisions is considered.Among them,altruism has entered the objective function of power companies and social planners,and the negative externality of carbon emissions has only entered the social planner’s objective function.(3)By establishing a channel investment decision model consisting of a single risk-avoiding grid company and a single-risk neutral low-carbon electricity investment power generation company,consider whether low-carbon and low-carbon power investment power generation companies and power grid companies need to share information,using CVaR.The risk metrics give the grid company’s decision-making objective function and focus on the analysis of the influence of the grid company’s risk aversion degree and the uncertainty of the market demand information on the demand information sharing value of the two sides of the channel and the entire channel.Based on this,it discusses the distribution of channel total revenue increment under revenue sharing contract.Based on the above research content,we have obtained the following conclusions:(1)From the perspective of impulse response analysis,cash flow and investment opportunities Tobin Q is an important factor in promoting low-carbon corporate investment.Although the power companies’ own inertia also plays an important role,this is mainly caused by the power industry.The nature of capital investment determines that the investment in fixed assets is continuous.Under the current background of the prevalence of low-carbon concepts,aside from the sunk costs of fixed-asset investment in power companies,in order to increase investment in low-carbon power companies,they must have a certain amount of cash flow and grasp the fleeting investment opportunities.Cash flow and TobinQ,which measures investment opportunities,have a positive effect on investment behavior.Moreover,the cumulative effect of the two is quite similar.Therefore,from the perspective of corporate decision-making,having abundant cash flow and controlling investment timing can effectively promote electricity.Business investment.For debt,its effect on corporate investment is negative,reflecting the fact that debt impedes corporate investment decisions.Judging from the results of variance decomposition,aside from the inertia of corporate investment,the impact of cash flow has the greatest explanatory power on corporate investment fluctuations.This shows that as a result of abundant cash flow,corporate investment has expanded even faster.Tobin Q and debt ratio have only played a very limited role.(2)It is found that the existence of negative externalities does not affect the optimal behavior of low-carbon power companies.Under the condition of altruistic behavior,the equilibrium solution of enterprises presents duality,namely,the Cournot-Nash solution or the Ramsay golden rule.,However,what kind of solution depends on the relative size of the parameters.For social planners,negative externalities affect the optimal level of social welfare.When the negative externalities depend on the demand of electricity,the social planner’s behavior needs to be discussed in various situations based on the value of each model parameter,especially the difference between the altruism parameter and the reserve price and the marginal cost of electricity.We can further compare the size of the externality with its threshold value to determine whether social welfare has reached the optimal level.To further explore the determinants of carbon emissions,we extend the model to situations where carbon emissions depend on the negative externalities of electricity production.At this time,we have obtained the optimal electricity output level obtained by social planners.Different from the results obtained from the previous discussions,at this time,no matter whether social planners are concerned about the externality of carbon emissions,electricity output cannot meet the Ramsey golden rule.The stability of the optimal output of the social planner depends on the relationship between the size and the size of the social planner.Under certain constraints,the optimal output has nothing to do with the coefficient of altruism but only the weight of carbon emissions.Coefficient related.Social planners promote the development of low-carbon electricity by guiding the adjustment of energy supply and consumption structure,deepening the progress of the reform of the power system,and increasing investment in energy-saving and emission reduction technologies,and improve the carbon trading market in the low-carbon electricity market transaction level.Accelerating the construction of ancillary services management system,on the surface,is actually a market,but it actually deepens part of the content of the power system reform.For the development of low-carbon power companies,resource crisis and environmental protection awareness must be established.Under the unified planning of social planners,a new energy development pattern coordinated with decentralized development and large-scale development should be established as soon as possible to coordinate power generation enterprises.Grid company’s low carbonization mechanism.(3)The shared value of low-carbon power demand information and the degree of risk aversion of grid companies in the low-carbon power supply chain,and uncertain market demand information for low-carbon power are related to the changes in demand reflected: when the market’s uncertain demand The information reflects that when the demand for low-carbon power in the market increases,the low-carbon power supply companies in the low-carbon power supply grid share the low-carbon power demand information with the power generation companies,which will always reduce their own sales revenue,while the power supply in the supply chain By sharing market uncertain information,companies can always obtain greater power generation gains.In most cases,information sharing of low-carbon power needs will help improve the optimal return of low-carbon power supply chain channels.When the uncertainty of market information is very large,and the grid companies in the low-carbon power supply chain are not very afraid of risks,the sharing of demand information will not be determined,but will reduce the total revenue of the low-carbon power supply chain channels;when the market Uncertainty information shows that when low-carbon electricity market demand decreases,if low-carbon power supply companies have higher risk aversion among power grid companies,low-carbon power demand information sharing can increase the total number of low-carbon power supply chain channels.income.On the contrary,the opposite is true. |
PDF Full Text Request