| The Sichuan snub-nosed monkey(Rhinopithecus roxellana)is an endangered primate endemic to China.The Sichuan snub-nosed monkey population in Shennongjia area has genetic isolation,small population size,and relatively low genetic diversity than other geographical population,which make it more vulnerable to environmental change.In order to protect the population more effectively,a complete protection strategy combining in situ protection and ex situ protection is urgently needed.For protecting populations in situ,we need to understand the possible impacts of future climate change and anthropogenic disturbances on the population,to identify areas where populations can be preserved and to increase inter-population connectivity,and provide more adaptive protection strategies for this population.For ex situ conservation population,the genetic background assessment of the group is need to carry out in order to maximize the genetic diversity of the population and avoid the mating of inbreeding.Through the exploration of the above contents,we could provide a reference basis for the development of a more comprehensive in situ and ex situ protection scheme for Shennongjia population.Here,firstly,we built a species distribution model based on monkey occurrences associated with bioclimatic and environmental variables.We assessed the extent that climate change scenario will impact the monkey's habitat distribution from the current period to the2050s and identified climate refugia.We analyzed the impact of climate change on carrying capacity.Using Vortex model combined with population parameters,we predicted the monkey's population viability in the period of 100 years in exist of extreme weather disaster and climate change.Through the circuit theory and the least cost distance model,we simulated the influence of different human disturbance scenarios on the connectivity of the golden monkey,and of road on genetic diversuty.Secondly,the genetic diversity and differentiation of the Sichuan snub-nosed monkey of the Qianjiaping(QJP)and Dalongtan(DLT)subpopulations in Shennongjia National Park were analyzed using single nucleotide polymorphisms(SNPs)data derived from restriction site-associated DNA sequencing(RAD-seq).To establish the captive breeding groups that minimize relatedness without pedigree information,the breeding family groups were modeled according to relatedness and inbreeding coefficient.The main results and conclusions are as follows:(1)Based on our projections,a habitat loss of 67.2%due to climate change will potentially occur by the 2050s scenario,and formed very little new habitat of 3.5%.The refugia areas amounted to 286 km~2 and were located in the Shennongjia National Park and the Badong Natural Reserve.By comparing the potential dispersal pathways between the current and the 2050s,climate change can also cause the change of landscape connectivity.(2)The climate change scenario resulted in a decrease in subpopulations'carrying capacity of 93.48%,72.86%and 13.96%for the Dalongtan,Jinhoulin and Qianjiaping subpopulation,respectively.Without the influence of climate change,the population size of the monkey in Hubei province could keep increasing gradually,which indicates that the population has certain fecundity.Extreme weather disaster and climate change both can reduce the population size of monkeys.The sensitivity of subpopulations in face of the extreme weather disaster and climate change was different.The main impact on population size of Dalongtan,Qianjiaping and Jinhoulin subpopulation were climate change,extrem weather disaster,and climate change combined with extreme weather disaster,respectively.(3)The disturbance of road changed the frequency of the optimal movement path of the monkey,and significantly affected the connectivity within Jinhoulin subpopulation and between all subpopulatons.The genetic diversity of meta-population in 150 years was declining,and the roads will likely exacerbate the magnitude of the decline in genetic diversity.The tourism had not significant effect on the connectivity of monkey,but resulting in a certain avoidance effect on monkey distribution with a distance of 100 m.(4)The genome-wide nucleotide diversity(?)of Sichuan snub-nosed monkey in Hubei province was found to be 0.001842,suggesting a relative low genetic diversity at the genomic level.The genetic differentiation(FST)between the Dalongtan and Qianjiaping subpopulations was 0.034,however,the genetic structure of two subpipulation was different,and there was a tendency of differentiation between the two subpopulations.Using eighty selected SNP loci,except recorded relationships,anothor two paternal relationships without record were successfully identified.Additionally,the best combinations of 5 breeding family groups were recommended,it can be used as a reference for genetic management of breeding population.This study allows conservationists to determine the most high-priority regions for effectively maintaining the endangered population of R.roxellana and increasing habitat connectivity,in the context of climate change.Additionally,this study used SNPs data derived from RAD-seq at the genomic level,providing a framework for estimating Sichuan snub-nosed monkey population genetics and recommending breeding families of the endangered populations. |
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