| Meteorological disasters caused a serious threat to human society,in order to deal with all kinds of meteorological disasters,reduce losses from disasters,governments and scientific communities had pay more attention to meteorological disaster research.The regional differences of meteorological disasters is the basic law of hazard geography,space-time characteristics is the basic research point of hazard geography,spatial and temporal statistical rules of meteorological disasters is a new research problem of hazard geography,disaster risk assessment is an important basis for the disaster prevention.Therefore,the research of spatial and temporal law of meteorological disasters,disaster trend judgment and disaster risk assessment research are not only beneficial to open new areas of hazard geography research,but also conducive to resolving the disaster risk and reducing the losses caused by disasters,so this research had theoretical and practical significance.Sichuan-Yunnan region is located in the southeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau,it's a sensitive area of climate change,there are many kinds of meteorological disasters which bringing a great threat to safety and property of people in Sichuan-Yunnan region.Strengthen the meteorological disaster research in Sichuan-Yunnan region is the practical needs of regional disaster research.This paper took the Sichuan-Yunnan region as the study area,by using methods of disaster trend judgment model,linear regression,inverse distance weighted interpolation(IDW),Z index,Morlet wavelet transform,the natural disaster risk index method,the meteorological disasters were analyzed in Sichuan-Yunnan region from 1961 to 2013.The study mainly obtained the following conclusions:(I)The response of meteorological disasters in Sichuan-Yunnan region to regional climate warming and drying.The research showed that,the Sichuan-Yunnan region is experiencing temperature increasing,less rain and dry since the 1990s,climate warming-drying trend is apparent.In the background of warming-drying climate,the frequency of drought disasters had increased 14.84%,strength exacerbated 4.45%;rainstorm disaster increased 0.63%in frequency,increased 1.60%in strength;snow disaster presented an increased frequency of 0.17%,and increased strength of 9.86%,high temperature days increased by 26.03%,strength increased by 0.27%;low temperature disaster and frost disaster were reduced 45.11%and 11.97%respectively,their intensity were all weakened.(2)The test model of disaster trend effect was constructed.By establishing indicator system of disaster trend effect judging,and constructed the test model of disaster trend effect,the published paper concerning meteorological disaster tendency in Sichuan-Yunnan region was tested,the test result found that the accuracy rate of meteorological disaster trend was as high as 75%.The test showed that the meteorological disasters in Sichuan-Yunnan region had very strong commensurability.(3)Multiple disaster time window periods were found through the judgement of disaster tend.The time window of spring drought in Sichuan-Yunnan region may be in 2015,the time window of winter drought in Sichuan Basin may be in 2018,the time window of summer drought in Eastern Yunnan region may be in 2016,the time window of summer drought in Lijiang may be in 2016 and in 2017,the time window of summer drought in Kunming may be in 2015 and in 2016.The time window of main flood season rainstorm in Dujiangyan,Yibin,Langzhong,Chengdu,Mianyang,Mengla may be in 2019,in 2015,in 2015,in 2015,in 2015,in 2015 respectively.The time window of winter snow disaster in Western Sichuan Plateau may be in 2019.The time window of severe low temperature disaster on May in Mianyang may be in 2015,the time window of September low temperature disaster in Suining may be in 2015 and in 2016,the time window of low temperature from July to September in Dali may be in 2016 and in 2018,severe low temperature time window of Wenshan from December to April may be in 2017.(4)There was a certain correlation between meteorological disasters and sunspot activity,ENSO events in Sichuan-Yunnan region.There were 50%drought years,49.54%rainstorm years,48.65%snow disaster years,57.50%low temperature years,44.44%frost disaster years appeared in the extreme sunspot number and their before and after one years respectively.By correlation analysing between meteorological disasters and ENSO events,the 68.75%drought years,58.14%rainstorm years,56.76%snow disaster years,67.90%low temperature years,66.67%frost disaster years were founded in the ENSO event years respectively.(5)The evaluation index system of meteorological disaster was constructed and the risk evaluation of meteorological disaster was assessed.Based on the meteorological disaster trend judging,combined with the danger of hazard formative factors,sensitivity of pregnant environment,vulnerability of hazard-affected bodies,the disaster prevention and mitigation capabilities,the risk of meteorological disasters were assessed in Sichuan-Yunnan region.The results showed that:the high risk region of drought disasters are mainly distributed in Western Sichuan Plateau and the southwestern Yunnan region.The highest risk area of rainstorm disaster mainly concentrated in Sichuan Basin,followed by the southern area of Yunnan.Shiqu,Seda,Ganzi,Hongyuan and Ruoergai had the highest risk of snow disaster.The highest risk area of low temperature was located in Sichuan Basin and eastern Yunnan region.The highest risk area of frost disaster was in Western Sichuan Plateau.(6)According to the meteorological disaster risk evaluation results,there are some provided measures to control the meteorological disasters risk in Sichuan-Yunnan region.The professional disaster mechanism should be established,and the comprehensive management decision support system of meteorological disaster risk should be constructed;we should adhere to prevent disaster legally,to consummate the legal system of meteorological disaster relief;capital investments should be guaranteed,the foundation engineering construction of meteorological disasters prevention should be strengthened;we should strengthen the research of meteorological disasters,and strengthen the transformation of scientific research achievements;the relevant departments should optimize the management information system,establish a scientific and effective early-warning mechanism of meteorological disaster;the awareness of disaster risk should be enhanced,the social participation mechanism also should be strengthened;we should pay more attention to the construction of the ecological environment,to create a good living environment.This research found that:the frequency and strength of drought disasters,rainstorm disaster,and snow disaster were all increased.In the paper,the test model of disaster trend effect was constructed,the evaluation index system of meteorological disaster was constructed and the risk evaluation of meteorological disaster was assessed.This study is helpful to the understanding of the meteorological disaster' space-time law in Sichuan-Yunnan region,understanding the development trend of disasters,grasping the regional disaster risk situation,the study has some reference value for resolving the disaster risk and reducing the losses caused by disasters. |
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