Research On Atmospheric Environment Vulnerability Assessment Over Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

With rapid economic development,acceleration of urbanization process,large-scale construction of industrialization and huge growth of vehicle numbers,the atmospheric environment threathend by composite pollution has became a hot spot and urgent issue.Especially,the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei(BTH)region in China has suffers multiple regional atmospheric pollution incidents with long endurance,high pollution concentrations and wide range.The atmospheric pollution emerges as one of the most significant constraints to damage atmospheric environment,restrict sustainable development,and threaten human health.It's extremely important to coordinate rapid economic development and favorable atmospheric environment quality.As a key measure in the coordination process,atmospheric vulnerability quantification is an imperative task to provide sientific guidance and decision basis for efficient regional mangement.This Paper introduces vulnerability theory into atmospheric environment science,expounds the basic definition,connotation,and theoretical basis of atmospheric environment vulnerability,constructs an atmospheric vulnerability assessment framework.In terms of the comprehensive evaluation of the complicacy and uncertainty in the atmospheric environment vulnerability assessment,this thesis aims to construct a framework for atmospheric environment vulnerability assessment regarding multi uncertainty analysis methods which can quantify and reduce the interval uncertainty,fuzzy uncertainty,and stochastical uncertainty in the atmospheric environment vulnerability assessment results.The elaboration of dynamic change regularity for social-atmospheric-environment coupled system addresses the relation between atmospheric environment vulnerability and sustainable development.The main research content is summarized as follows:(1)Taking the risk preference of decision makers into account,an OWA-GIS-based multi-criteria decision analysis,containing human activity,atmospheric environment and social economic factors,is developed to quantificationaly assess the spatial and temporal status and genetic mechanism of atmospheric environment vulnerability under multi decision risk scenarios in the BTH region.(2)The description of atmospheric environment vulnerability degree is a fuzzy process.A fuzzy-method-based multi criteria decision analysis coupled with CAMx model is applied to assess the ecological vulnerability and measure the fuzzy uncertainty in the assessment process.(3)Considering the fuzzy and stochastic uncertainty in vulnerability assessment process,a cloud-model-based multi criteria decision analysis method is built to evaluate the atmospheric environment vulnerability of the BTH region in China.The method also supports quantitative evaluation for improvement degree of the atmospheric vulnerability under different emission sources reductions.(4)In terms of the interval uncertainty and stochastic uncertainty during the assessment process,a interval-method-based multi criteria decision analysis method integrated with LEAP model and Monte Carlo is developed to quantify and predict the improvement or deterioration degree of atmospheric environment vulnerability after different policy implementation.In this thesis,an atmospheric environment vulnerability quantification assessment model combining a series method for uncertainty is constructed to 1)analyze the spatial and temporal change regularity,2)illustrate genetic mechanism of the ecological vulnerability status,3)recognise principal contradictory indicators for atmospheric environment vulnerability,4)predict policy implementation impact on future atmospheric environment vulnerability,and 5)quantify multi uncertainty in the atmospheric environment vulnerability assessment process.The research findings support decision basis for regional atmospheric environment protection and pollution control and provide scientific strategies for future urban and atmospheric environmental plannings.It is a meaningful and significant research for sustainable and equilibrium development in the BTH region.