Research On New Energy Optimization Development Management And Application In Gansu

Nearly 30 years,in order to promote the transformation of energy production and social consumption,the development of new energy represented by wind and light all over the world is facing great challenges and opportunities.With the sustained and rapid growth of China's new energy resources,the proportion of the power grid is increasing,and the future of new energy will enter the stage of large-scale development.At present,China's wind power and solar power installed capacity ranks first in the world,but compared with the traditional energy generation,due to the randomness and intermittent of new energy generation inherent,large-scale new energy grid has increased the uncertainty of power system operation and has brought great challenges to the management of power grid,resulting in the problem of the abandoned wind and light is becoming more and more serious.The root causes are as follows: the development of new energy and market demand does not match,lacking of supply management,lacking of trans-provincial and trans-region transmission channels,the peak absorptive mechanism is not perfect.Therefore,the research of new energy supply optimization method improve the ability of power grid to accept new energy,determine a reasonable scheduling model of new energy grid system,improve the new energy risk management evaluation,and promote the coordinated development of energy consumption for the electricity market.These questions are in urgent need to solve.Based on this,this dissertation by the current situation of new energy development of Gansu province as a starting point,put forward a new energy optimization management model of new energy supply management,risk assessment,consumptive management and auxiliary mechanism,a new energy combination forecasting model based on induced ordered weighted average IOWA operator is studied,and in view of the impact of large scale new energy access to power grid on power market and regional power grid,studied the theory and method of optimization and coordination of new energy resources,in addition,analyzed the risk management for new energy resources,and constructed a consumptive model in the new energy based on the complementary power supply side and the user side to participate.This study offers a new way to promote the sustainable development of new energy,the research contents are as follows:(1)Put forward a new energy optimization management model.In view of the problems existing in the development of new energy resources,combined with the combination forecasting theory and the theory of co integration development,the dissertation puts forward a new energy optimization and coordinated development model.The model is based on the current situation of new energy development in Gansu Province,the new energy prediction,evaluation,risk management,consumption as a key research direction,considered the development of new energy to the participating parties,and coordinated the interests,so as to provide the basis for promoting the sustainable development of new energy sources.(2)Study on the development trend of new energy based on variable weight combination forecasting model.For a single model prediction the accuracy is limited,based on the development of new energy in Gansu Province,Logistic regression prediction,time series prediction and grey GM(1,1)prediction models were established respectively,and the prediction results were analyzed to determine the reliability of each prediction method.On the basis of this,the weight of the combined forecasting model of induced ordered weighted average IOWA operator is determined,which provides support for the reasonable prediction of the new energy development trend.(3)Study on optimization of new energy supply management method.With the aim of sustainable development,based on the co-integration relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth,the coordinated development model of new energy and electricity market is established;With safety and reliability,the balance of supply and demand,energy-saving emission reduction and economic efficiency as the index,the energy efficiency evaluation method based on the new energy access power system was established;According to the impact of the new energy grid on the regional power grid,a new energy grid coordination evaluation method based on the improved TOPSIS model is established,which provides a guarantee for the realization of the new energy supply.(4)Establish a new energy risk assessment method based on Copula model.Based on the analysis of the economic environment,from the power demand,power generation enterprises,intra regional trading market environment,power supply company and policy perspectives to determine the operation management risk factors affecting the development of large-scale new energy,in addition,proposed the risk assessment standards and established a new energy risk assessment method based on Copula model.(5)Study on a new energy consumption optimization model,which covers the power supply side of complementary,user participation and auxiliary consumptive parallel mechanism.According to the characteristics of the new energy output,a coordinated optimization scheme of the wind / light complementary and water / light complementary were proposed,and the multi-source complementary optimal control model was established;In the light of the user side to participate in peak shaving,corporate owned power plant and high energy consuming enterprises as the research object,balanced the interests of all parties and established a new energy consumption control model for users to participate in peak shaving;put forward the new energy consumptive auxiliary mechanism covering new energy trading price and consumption policy,which makes the new energy consumptive mechanism and policy more practical,and provides more advantageous mechanism and policy for new energy consumption.