| With the rapid development of urbanization in Jiangsu Province,a series of ecological and environmental problems increasingly break out,such as the low quality of urbanization development,the obvious spatial difference of ecological environment,the higher pollution of per unit land,and serious waste and low efficiency of land resulted from incoordination and asynchronization between population urbanization and land urbanization.Under the global background of "emission reduction" and the responsibility to share "emission reduction",the traditional industrialized and urbanizatied development model featured as high input,high consumption and high emissions is unsustainable in Jiangsu Province.At the same time,the ecological deterioration of land,intensification of greenhouse gas emissions and other ecological problems in Jiangsu Province are contrary to the current "new urbanization" development strategy.During the urbanization process of Jiangsu Province,in face of the present situation of the great spatial difference in the ecological environment,the development requirement of balanced development between the population economy and the resource environment space,and the development requirement of “joint prevention governance and control” for ecological environment,it is necessary to study the relevant theories and mechanisms deeply and scientifically,and to quantitatively analyze the use(destruction)of the ecological environment of human activities on this basis.In this paper,the ecological footprint is used as an effective tool to characterize the above ecological environment.From the scale of county and the spatial effect perspective,this paper mainly studies the influence mechanism of economic and social development on ecological footprint and the evolution trend of ecological footprint and its formation mechanism in the process of urbanization in Jiangsu Province.Therefore,scientific and reasonable regulatory goals to reduce Jiangsu's ecological footprint and reduce the ecological pressure of Jiangsu Province,and guide and control the relationship between urbanization and ecological footprint of counties in Jiangsu province.The main content and conclusions are as follows:(1)Combining the traditional ecological footprint model,the human primary productivity occupancy model(HANPP)and the remote sensing technology,the feasibility of the assessment of the ecological footprint of the county scale is discussed in theory and method.Total volume,per capita value,function structure,spatial heterogeneity and spatial correlation of ecological footprints from 73 counties in Jiangsu Province in 1995-2015 are calculated or studied.The result shows that the ecological footprints of Jiangsu Province mainly composed of carbon footprints has been in the rising stage in the study year,and the growth rate has slowed down in the past 5 years.The spatial heterogeneity and spatial correlation of ecological footprints in Jiangsu Province are obvious.The dynamic trend of ecological footprint and per capita ecological footprint is obviously different from that of "east-west" and "northsouth".The calculation of the Tyr index shows that the evolution features of the differences of(per capita)ecological footprints between counties are obvious,mainly from the carbon footprint.From spatial correlation,it is found that the spatial correlation degrees of total ecological footprints and per capita ecological footprint are positively and negatively respectively correlated with urbanization rate.The distribution features of the total ecological footprint are mainly from "low-low" and "low-high" agglomeration to "low-low" and "high-high" agglomeration,while the distribution of per capita ecological footprint is mainly characterized by a variety of agglomeration to decentralized evolution.(2)Based on the relevant theory,the influences on ecological footprint of the economy and society factors and spatial effect in urbanization process are analyzed.From the linear point of view,considering the influence of geographical factors,the variation of the influencing factors,the spatial distribution of the coefficients and significances are analyzed by using the geographic weighting regression model(GWR)based on STIRPAT.The results show that the population,affluence,urbanization rate,proportion of built-up land and the industrial structure(the proportion of the first and second industries)are positive effects on ecological footprints,while technology level and energy efficiency are mainly negative effects.Population growth and energy efficiency improvement is the main driver of ecological footprint and the main inhibitory factor of ecological footprint respectively.The significance and spatial variability of the urbanization rate and technology level are obvious: the positive effect of the urbanization rate on ecological footprints is the "weak-strong-weak" trend on the time scale,and negative effect of intensity and range in the science and technology progress on ecological footprint of Jiangsu Province,is gradually increased and enhanced respectively.The empirical study of the Dubin panel model based on STIRPAT shows that the ecological footprint of Jiangsu Province is diverse and the spillover effect is obvious.Analysis of spatial spillover effect shows the necessity of “joint prevention governance and control” of ecological footprint in Jiangsu Province.(3)From the perspective of non-linearity,the EKC hypothesis model combined with the heterogeneity theory and the threshold regression model is used,proved that obvious EKC threshold effect on the country's ecological footprint from urbanization rate,industrial structure and energy efficiency,which means the country with certain level of development is more likely to form a decline in the inflection point of the evolution of ecological footprints.In this paper,the relationship between Jiangsu Province and ecological footprint is divided into early stage,middle stage and late stage by 61% and 71% threshold of urbanization rate.The county in the different stages of urbanization development,with different status of industrial structure,energy efficiency level,which ecological footprint evolution trend is very different,and this trend is in dynamic change.Scenario analysis shows that under certain policy intervention,such as it is effectively speed up the decline of ecological footprint intensity and promote the formation and advancement of the ecological footprint of counties to accelerate urbanization,speed up the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure,and improve the investment of science and technology.At the same time,different emphasizes of trend influence are on different counties for these factors: the prefecturelevel counties should pay attention to the speed of urbanization and give priority to the development of service industry,counties in the middle and late stages should pay attention to reduce the ecological footprint intensity by improving the energy efficiency.(4)Based on the above analysis,this paper aims to reduce the ecological footprints of Jiangsu Province and each county,promote the ecological balance development between counties,and puts forward the specific ecological footprint regulation and policy suggestions.In order to meet the different development objectives of different types of counties,six aspects including population,economy,industrial structure,science and technology,energy,land as the specific entry points for realizing the regulatory objectives are promoted,and differentiation,development stage,focal point and development balance as regulatory strategies are emphasized.Finally,according to the above regulatory objectives,contents and strategies,combined with domestic and foreign urbanization policy research and the development status of urbanization in cities and counties in Jiangsu Province,specific policy recommendations are put forward from the population growth,urbanization development,land use,industrial structure adjustment,economic development mode change,technological innovation and space linkage. |
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