| In 2003,Hong Kong signed the "Mainland and Hong Kong Closer Economic Partnership Arrangement"(CEPA)with the Mainland.Under this free trade agreement,Hong Kong's "Individual Visiting Scheme"(IVS)policy was adopted in July of 2003.The implementation of the IVS policy allowed a large number of Mainland residents no longer need to travel through the tour agencies,instead,they were able to travel to Hong Kong as individual.From 2003,China's economy has developed very rapidly,and the incomes of the Chinese people have increased dramatically as well.In addition,the outbound tourism numbers of the Mainland Chinese residents are also rising fast.Although Hong Kong has been a special administrative region under the policy of "one country,two systems" since it was come back to China in 1997,according to China's tourism statistics,Hong Kong is still in the oversea area statistics catalog which means the visitors getting through Mainland and Hong Kong are identified as cross-border tourists.Since the reform and opening up of China,because Mainland China and Hong Kong has greatly geographical and cultural similarity,on the one side,Hong Kong are always the biggest outbound tourist destination for Mainland tourists,and on the other side,Mainland tourists are Hong Kong's largest inbound tourists source as well.To a great extent,the IVS policy helped Hong Kong's economy get out of the hardship of the Asian financial crisis and the SARS epidemic;however,there were still some people in Hong Kong opposed to the IVS policy.These people think that the rapid growth of the Mainland tourists has led to the rise of the customer prices of Hong Kong and it has greatly affected the normal lives of the Hong Kong residents.Moreover,some of them even proposed the Hong Kong government to abolish the IVS policy.Therefore,it has the theoretical necessity and the practical urgency to do an objective and scientific research in oder to make a clear demonstrate of whether the Mainland tourism has impacted the Hong Kong's CPI.At present,in terms of the research literatures on the relationship between tourism and local customer price from both the domestic and international are mainly qualitative and binary analysis,and the multivariate analysis is relatively lacking.This study make up the current research gap by construct a multivariate mechanism impact hypothesis to analyze the influences of Mainland inbound tourism to the customer prices in Hong Kong.Theoretically,this paper use the demand-supply theory as the main theoretical basis and introduced the Hong Kong residents' salary index with the Mainland inbound tourism index together as the dependent variables and the various Hong Kong customer price index as the independent variables to establish a multivariate impact mechanism model.The research collected the quarterly data of many different Hong Kong customer price indicators as the dependent variables for microscopic classification analysis of the issue.Besides,this paper also adopted the gray correlation model,the comprehensive mathematical method,the econometric method,the Granger causality test and the elastic coefficient analysis to identify or test the impact relationship between the independent variables and the dependent variables,such as the pull-push relationship analysis,the cointegration and VEC test,the Granger causality relationship analysis and the elastic coefficient impact analysis.These analyses verified the multiple impact model,multiple impact paths and multiple influence laws of the Mainland inbound tourism on the Hong Kong customer prices.The proposes of the study are trying to answer the following questions,first,whether the Mainland inbound tourism has influence on the Hong Kong customer prices,second,how the influence act,and third,how serious is the level of the impacts.The conclusion summed up the laws of the research results which can be regarded as the scientific basis for government's decision-making.The study could also help the Hong Kong and the Mainland governments to formulate practical and effective countermeasures,which may have the great significance to the sustainable development of Hong Kong's IVS policy and Hong Kong's tourism industry.The main conclusions are as follow:(1)The liner development trend of all variables is similar and the push-pull relationships between the independent variables and the dependent variables are significant.? From the perspective of the development trend of the variables themselves,the overall linear changes of the independent variables and the dependent variables are all in the upward trend.?From the perspective of time segmentation,the growth rate of all variables in the second stage is greater than the first stage;?from the view of push-pull relationship between the independent variables and the dependent variables,different independent variables on the different dependent variable has positive push-pull effect,which successfully proved the hypothesis 1.At the time point of view,the marginal push-pull effect of the Mainland inbound tourism index to the Hong Kong customer price index is increasing during the study period from the beginning of the year 2003 to the end of 2015,while the marginal push-pull effect of the residents;salary index to the Hong Kong customer price index is also increased when compare the later 2015 to the early 2003.(2)The multivariate impact model of the independent variables on the independent variable passed the cointegration test.The result of cointegration test shows that the independent variable Mainland inbound tourism index and residents' salary index have significant stable long-term co-ordination relationship to the various prices index of Hong Kong,which successfully proved the hypothesis 2.The vector error correction model based on the cointegration test shows that the influence of the independent variables on some dependent variables are mainly realized by the short-term effect,while the influence of some other dependent variables are mainly through the long-term effect,which successfully proved the hypothesis 3.(3)The Granger causality test verified the causal relationship between the different variables involved in the multiple influence model,which successfully proved the hypothesis 4.?the Granger causality relationship between the independent variables is the Mainland inbound tourism index is the Granger reason for the Hong Kong residents'salary index ?the Granger causality relationship between the independent variables and the dependent variables are:1)the Mainland inbound tourism index is the Granger.reason for the Hong Kong customer prices index;2)Hong Kong residents' salary index is the Granger reason of the Hong Kong customer prices index.?The test reveals the impact path between the variables.1)Mainland inbound tourism itself has a direct impact on Hong Kong customer prices,also,it can indirectly affect the customer prices by influence Hong Kong residents,salary;2)Hong Kong residents' salary can directly affect Hong Kong customer prices.(4)The elastic analysis of the independent variables on the dependent variable contributes the following rules.?In the whole,the elastic contribution of Hong Kong residents' salary index to all studied Hong Kong customer price indicators is greater than that of Mainland inbound tourism index,which successfully proved the hypothesis 5.?From the overall point of view,the elastic contribution of the Mainland inbound tourism to the different Hong Kong customer prices is different,which successfully proved the hypothesis 6.The contributions of the Mainland inbound tourism to the Hong Kong broad-category prices from high to low are as follows:goods price,housing price,traffic price and food price.Besides,the contribution of the Mainland inbound tourism to the Hong Kong sub-category prices are as follows:1)the elastic contribution to the food sub-category from high to low are dairy products,spices,outside meals and pastries;2)the elastic contribution of housing sub-category prices from high to low are private retail prices,private residential prices,private retail rentals and private residential rentals;3)the elastic contribution to the traffic sub-category prices from high to low are in turn for the ferry,small buses,large buses and taxis;4)the elastic contribution to the shopping goods sub-category prices from high to low are jewelry,clothing,drugs and cosmetics.?In terms of time segmentation,the first stage elastic contribution of Mainland inbound tourism index to the majority of Hong Kong customer price categories presents higher than the second stage,which successfully proved the hypothesis 7.(5)Based on the conclusion of the study,this paper puts forward the following enlightenment for the future tourism development of Hong Kong:the impact of Mainland inbound tourism on Hong Kong's customer price is less than that of Hong Kong residents' salary on Hong Kong's customer prices,which indicating that the Mainland inbound tourism is only a relatively minor factor affecting Hong Kong customer prices.The negative effects to the Hong Kong residents' life are mainly manifested in the rise in housing prices.Therefore,the Hong Kong government should take a correct view of the impact of Mainland inbound tourism on Hong Kong's customer prices,correctly grasp the differences in the size and type of the impact,conduct a scientific guide to the public and media,and actively introduce solutions to help the IVS policy and Hong Kong tourism have healthy and sustainable development.This article has the following three innovations:(1)The study constructing a new multivariate model to analyze the impact of Mainland inbound tourism on Hong Kong consumer price.This paper introduces the Hong Kong residents' salary as indicators together with the Mainland inbound tourism as multiple independent variables to analyze the impact on Hong Kong consumer prices index.The establishment and verification of this more explanatory multivariate impact mechanism model has important theoretical significance to enrich and improve the tourism impacts research on the local consumer prices.(2)This study uses the quarterly data as the core research material which improved the time resolution of the analysis.On the basis of collecting a large number of data,the study selected the quarterly data to analysis the impact of Mainland inbound tourism to Hong Kong's CPI.Compared with the annual data,the quarterly data can improve and enhance the accuracy of the interpretation and the analysis results of the multivariate impact mechanism.(3)The research selected several of consumer price items and formed a comprehensive micro-analysis.Based on the collection of a large number of different Hong Kong consumer price index data,this paper classification and selected four broad-category consumer price items to analyze the impact of Mainland inbound tourism on Hong Kong consumer prices.The comprehensive study made the research be more plentiful and persuasive,and have great theoretical significance to help people comprehensively understand the impact level and differences of the Mainland inbound tourism on the various Hong Kong consumer price items. |
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