Research On The Emergency Decisionmaking Of Disasters In Smart City Based On Dynamic Game Theory

The urban scale of China expands with the continuous development of urbanization,socialization,informatization and modernization.Meanwhile,complex social economic problems and frequently occurring urban disasters have been serious threats to public security.The traditional modes of emergency management and decision-making are difficult to meet the demand.Information technologies,such as Internet,cloud computing and big data technology,are the foundations for measuring urban disasters.Based on these intelligent technologies,emergency decision-making theory and practice in smart city attract the public's attention.Intelligent technology penetrates in the emergency decision-making process and significantly improves the validity and reliability of disaster prediction,event description and emergency rescue.The dissertation reviews previous studies and relevant theories,constructs a logical framework for urban disaster emergency decision-making in smart city.The relationship between emergency decision makers is investigated based on differential game theory.The information sharing mechanism is discussed by the evolutionary game model.The emergency decision-making methods are proposed through sequential game and fuzzy decision theories.The emergency decision-making system in smart city is built from the aspects of structure,mechanism and legislation.The innovations are mainly included in the following aspects:(1)Based on differential game theory,this paper puts forward a three-parties game model of emergency decision-making between central government and local governments in smart city.Emergency resource allocation and fiscal funding are also investigated.Through the analysis of the main causes and mechanisms of cooperation,the intrinsic factors is investigated,which affect the evolution of the cooperation of all parts.(2)In accordance with the hypothesis of limited rationality of the subject,a dynamic evolutionary game model of information sharing in smart city is proposed with the evolutionary game theory and the numerical simulation.Through analyzing the evolutionary stable strategy and stable ideal state of the government and enterprises,cooperation foundation is developed,together with feasible incentive mechanism and security system.(3)A fuzzy sequential game decision-making method based on the preplan is demonstrated to deal with the conventional disasters in smart cities.With the introduction of fuzzy information theory,Bias theory is extended to fuzzy environment.On the base of carding stages of game process between the emergency decision makers and urban disasters,the sequential game model is proposed for emergency decision makers to adjust plans dynamically according to the initial results and instant information.(4)A decision-making method based on fuzzy information VIKOR expansion method is demonstrated to deal with the unconventional disasters in smart cities.A new type of aggregation operator is proposed to integrate opinions of experts based on interval intuitionistic fuzzy theory.The VIKOR method is used to sort the emergency response scheme.The essential characteristics of emergency decisionmaking are reflected exactly and the problems difficult for experts to express accurately in emergency decision-making process,due to incomplete information,are solved effectively.The dissertation proposes a complete theory system for emergency decisionmaking in smart city.Through intensive studies of emergency decision-makers,emergency information and decision-making methods,the emergency decision system of smart city on the basis of our national conditions are constructed.The dissertation provides a feasible scheme and has a certain theoretical value and practical significance.