| Endogenous growth theory indicates that scientific and technological innovation is regarded as a factor determining the upgrading of industrial structure and economic growth.Scientific and technological talents(sci-tech talents)are considered as the key element of the scientific and technological innovation activities.The aggregation of sci-tech talents in a certain region and the aggregating effect are able to effectively promote the competitiveness of the regional industries to provide a driving force of human capital for the development of high-tech industries.On the other hand,the human capital movement is subject to the movement of productivity,and its spatial distribution depends on the spatial layout of productivity.In turn,the development of high-tech industries will further create demands for sci-tech talents to promote the aggregation of sci-tech talents to exert the effect of talent aggregation.Therefore,it is of great theoretical and practical significances to research the interactive mechanism between the regional aggregation of sci-tech talents and the development of high-tech industries so as to further estimate and test their interactive effects quantitatively.Based on 31 provinces,municipalities and autonomous regions in China,the interaction between the regional aggregation of sci-tech talents and the development of high-tech industries as well as the development trend was systemically studied by using theoretical analysis and empirical research.The main contents and conclusions are as follows:(1)The current situations of the regional aggregation of sci-tech talents and the development of high-tech industries in China.The current situations are dissected through a synchronic and diachronic comparison.The research results show that: the Eastern China is with the highest aggregation density of sci-tech talents followed by the central and western regions in order.As the sci-tech talents are gathering to the eastern region,there is an increasing gap between the eastern and western regions.Moreover,the development scale of high-tech industries continues to enlarge,but the regional differences are great,i.e.,the development scale in the eastern region is larger than that in the central region,while that in the western region is the least.In 2013,the output values of the high-tech industries in eastern China accounted for more than 75% of the total output value of China.In terms of the variation trend for the recent years,the proportion is reduced continuously.(2)The comprehensive estimation of the regional aggregation of sci-tech talents and the development of high-tech industries in China.With respect to the data multi-index comprehensive evaluation with different data characteristics,the authors put forward a grey clustering evaluation model including fuzzy information and a multi-index grey target evaluation model containing interval information to supplement the factor analysis method.On this basis,the aggregation of sci-tech talents and the development level of high-tech industries in 31 provinces,municipalities and autonomous regions in China are quantitatively estimated.The results manifest that the agglomerating level of sci-tech talents and the development level of high-tech industries are generally the highest in the eastern China,followed by those of the central and western regions.As illustrated in the scatter plot,there are significant correlations between them statistically.However,from the point of view of the provincial ranking,the two levels are not completely consistent with each other,which suggesting that in addition to the mutual influence between themselves,they may be influenced by other important factors,including the regional economical development level,wage level,policy support,etc.(3)The interactions between the aggregation of sci-tech talents and the development of high-tech industries in China.The authors analyze the interactions between the aggregation of sci-tech talents and the development of high-tech industries to summarize the internal mechanism and external factors influencing the interactions between them.And then they also propose the corresponding theoretical assumptions to establish a simultaneous equations model for the interactions between the regional aggregation of sci-tech talents and the development of high-tech industries.The research results according to provincial panel data from 2003 to 2013 indicate that there are significant positive interactions between the regional aggregation of sci-tech talents and the development of high-tech industries.In addition,the former dominates the interactive mechanism between them.During estimating the subsamples respectively,namely the eastern,central and western regions,it can be found that there are obvious regional differences in the dominance relations.Furthermore,the aggregation of sci-tech talents and the development of high-tech industries are significantly influenced by control variables to different extent,such as the economic development level,regional wage level,scientific and technological policy,marketization degrees,and infrastructures.(4)The forecast and suggestion on the aggregation of sci-tech talents and high-tech industries in China.Considering that the available relevant data are insufficient,the authors present nonlinear least square estimation method for NGBM(1,1)model and GM(1,N)derived model with the optimal background value for the modeling and prediction of time series with small samples.The relevant variables on the aggregation of sci-tech talents and the development of high-tech industries are forecasted based on NGBM(1,1)model.Besides,the agglomerating level of sci-tech talents and the development level of high-tech industries from 2014 to 2020 is predicated on the basis of GM(1,N)derived model.In accordance with the predicted values,the interactions between the regional aggregation of sci-tech talents and the development of high-tech industries in China are re-estimated.Finally,the authors provide some policy suggestions for strengthening the interactive development between the aggregation of sci-tech talents and high-tech industries.As demonstrated by the research results,the interaction coefficients between the aggregation of sci-tech talents and the development of high-tech industries in forecast period are higher than those in the sample period.In addition,the interactions between them are expected to be further strengthened.Meanwhile,the influence of the former on the latter will be further increased.The regional estimation manifests that the interactive effect between them in the eastern region is significantly greater than that in central and western regions.Moreover,the control variables,such as economic development level,regional wage level,infrastructures have great influences on the aggregation of sci-tech talents and the development of high-tech industries to different degrees.Thereby,in order to enhance the interactive development between them,it is necessary to encourage enterprises to research and innovate to promote system innovation and increase investment.Meanwhile,further research will focus on guiding the differential development of high-tech industries in various regions and moderately tilting to the central and western regions. |
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