Poverty Estimate And Pro-Poor Growth Research In Southwest China

Because of the scarce agricultural resource,the fragility of the ecological environment,the agglomeration of several ethnic minorities,the low quality of human capital and the high poverty rate,Southwest China is a crucial area in poverty alleviation and realization of well-off society in an all-round way in 2020.Because of the development gap is big between it and the West and Middle China,Southwest China is facing the choice of leapfrog development now and in the future,not only by "catching up" but also by "turning"."catching up" with the economic development is crucial in poverty alleviation and leapfrog development;"turning" from the resource-driven economy to environment-friendly development determines the level of the poor integrating into the economic development and the development mode to be "pro-poor growth" or "pro-rich growth".The core of the"pro-poor growth" theory is emphasizing the participation of the poor during the process of the economic growth and eventually sharing the achievements of economic growth.From the aspect of economic development theory and the experience in developed countries,the economic development can generally increase the income of the poor,but the large income distribution gap can offset the poverty reduction effect,so that "economic growth,income distribution and poverty reduction" forms a triangle counterbalances.Based on the theory of "pro-poor growth",this paper use both normative analysis and empirical analysis to settling the "pro-poor growth" theory and the evaluation index system,using the related macro data and survey data in in Guizhou,Guangxi,Sichuan and Chongqing to analyze the poverty problem in Southwest China,evaluate the "pro-poor growth" situation and give the path selection of the future "pro-poor growth".The conclusions are:Firstly,according to social capital theory,in addition to the shortage of the external factors of resource in Southwest China,the rural southwest minority lack effective social participation network.There is low(short)connection and high integration in the horizontal social capital which is connected by relatives and national religion;there is high(long)connection and low integration in the longitudinal(vertical)social capital.Meanwhile,the rural economic organizations somewhere in between are not the majority yet.Secondly,the FGT poverty index in Guizhou,Guangxi,Sichuan,and Chongqing from 2000 shows that the three poverty indexes:poverty breadth(The incidence of poverty:Head-count index),poverty depth(Poverty gap index)and poverty intensity(Foster-Greer-Thorbecke)all have a declining trend.The absolute poverty rate in rural areas declines the fastest and the Gini coefficient which represents income inequality stays stable.But the relative poverty of rural residents has a rising trend and is slowly approaching that of the urban residents.At the same time,poverty reduction speed is becoming slowly in rural areas.Thirdly,measure the factors that change the poverty rate.Keep the poverty line unchanged and decompose respectively the contribution of economic growth and income distribution to poverty change.The result shows that poverty reduction effect of economic growth is decreasing while the poverty reduction effect of the income distribution is enhancing.The average economic growth elasticity of poverty reduction is less than 1 and the average income distribution elasticity of poverty reduction is greater than 1,which shows why poverty reduction is becoming more difficult.The comparison between income growth rate and per capita income growth rate of different income groups of rural(town)residents shows that,per capita income growth rate of the low-income residents is lower than rural(town)residents as a whole in most years since 2000.thus,it can be inferred that the economic growth of the past years is not "pro-poor growth".Fourth,on pro-poor emphasis of industry development,the econometric model of the relation between industry structure and poverty reduction shows that,the tertiary industry in Guizhou is negatively related to the poverty rate,the primary industry of Guangxi is negatively related to the poverty rate,the primary industry and the tertiary industry are negative related to poverty rate while the partial elasticity is greater than that of the tertiary industry.the secondary industry of these four provinces(area,city)are positively related to the poverty rate,indicating that the increasing proportion of the secondary industry can increase the poverty rate,instead of reducing the poverty rate.Finally,on the effective path of poverty reduction measures,in addition to continuing to increase in public spending in the poor areas and strengthening the foundation for the development of the poor areas,it is more important enforce the poverty reduction strategy by developing the primary industry and the tertiary industry,because these are industries "closest" to poor people and easy for access.But if only with the development of traditional types of farming,there is no advantage on agricultural resources in the Southwest.Compared with the Middle and Eastern China,the agricultural products are not competitive in the market.Taking the path of special agriculture industry to enhance market competitiveness.However,the key to connect "atoms" of poor farmers and realize the pro-poor development is to use the highly integrated social network of the ethnic minority villages,embed with"virtuous + capable" leaders of industrial organization,and from the agricultural industrial organization that can help the poor to become rich.