Research On Decomposition And Allocation Of Energy-saving Target Of China

Through the implementation of “ 11 th Five-Year Plan ” and “ 12thFive-Year Plan ” energy-saving targets,China's energy-saving emission reduction achieved remarkable results.During the period of 12thFive-Year Plan,China completed the energy-saving goal by falling 16% on schedule.However,China is now at the stage of industrialization,high-speed economic development which has led to a sharp increase in energy consumption.Compared with the energy consumption quantity of developed countries,there are still some gaps in China."12thFive-Year Plan" energy-saving goal mainly aims at energy consumption decline by unit GDP while “13thFive-Year Plan”energy-saving targets include total energy quantity control and the decline of energy intensity.Therefore,based on the analysis of the work experience and lessons learned from the "12thFive-Year Plan" and other past years,as well as the energy experience of foreign countries,combined with research on energy consumption factors in depth,we can make accurate and reasonable prediction of demand and energy intensity of "13thFive-Year Plan" and long-term energy.After making the prediction,we can decompose the energy-saving target to each province and city so that we can provide feasible implementation route and policy suggestions.This will be in favor of the optimal allocation of energy consumption increment,and promote regional industrial restructuring,as well as achieve sustainable and healthy economic and social development.This study summarizes China's economy and energy development trend and classified different levels and departments.Taking advantage of exponential decomposition method,we explored how the influential factors impact the change of total energy consumption.The results show that energy intensity and gross output are still the main driving factors that influence the change of energy consumption but the impact has slowed down gradually.Thus,controlling the total energy consumption effectively and unit GDP energy consumption,optimizing the industrial structure and energy structure is the focus of future energy conservation work.At the same time,this thesis sets out the scenarios of economic transformation and low-carbon development,and uses the CGE model and per capita energy consumption method to forecast China's "13th Five-Year Plan" and the long-term economic development trend and total energy consumption so that to determine China 's "13th Five-Year Plan" energy-saving goals.According to the results of CGE model,we can see that under the strong constraint of national policy,China's total energy consumption can be controlled on about 5 billion tons of standard coal.By comparing with the situation of major countries in the world,this thesis uses per capita energy consumption comparative analysis method to predict China's 2020 Energy consumption,the results show that in the normal energy consumption scenarios,China's total energy consumption in 2020 is 6.4 billion tons of standard coal,which is far beyond the capacity of China's commitment to capacity and emission reduction commitments.Considering that it's difficult for China to realize fully economic transition and the economic new engine hasn't built up yet,we suggested that the total energy consumption control target has better be controlled on 5 billion tons of standard coal while the aim of energy intensity reduction should be 15%.At the same time,the consistency of the traditional AHP method is improved by genetic algorithm.The genetic algorithm is used to correct the traditional analytic hierarchy process,and the main feature vector is the weight of each influencing factor.The results show that the necessity of energy saving has the greatest impact on the decomposition of energy-saving target,the weight is 53.33%;the second is the energy-saving capacity,the weight of the factor is 33.34%;energy-saving difficulty is relatively small,respectively 13.33%.Unit GDP energy consumption,energy consumption per unit of industrial added value,per capita GDP,technology market turnover and other factors have a greater impact on the standard layer.Based on the control range of China's energy consumption,this paper gives the decomposition scheme of the energy intensity reduction target area in China's "13th Five-Year Plan" energy saving target scheme.There are five types of areas: Tianjin,Shanghai,Guangdong Province,Zhejiang Province,Jiangsu Province,Beijing.The second category: Shandong,Liaoning Province,Hebei Province;Three areas: Chongqing,Fujian Hebei Province,Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region,Shanxi Province,Hunan Province,Anhui Province,Jiangxi Province,Hubei Province,Henan Province,Shaanxi Province;Four areas: Gansu Province,Qinghai Province,Hubei Province,Sichuan Province,Guizhou Province;Five areas: Hainan Province,Jilin Province,Heilongjiang Province,Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region,Xinjiang.From the regional decomposition of the results of the program,the economicdevelopment stage,the level of production technology and other economic factors is the main factor to control the completion of energy-saving targets.Compared with the "Eleventh Five-Year" and "Twelfth Five-Year Plan",industrial energy consumption is still the key to the decomposition of energy-saving targets.Therefore,energy saving in industrial sector is still an important starting point for China to complete medium-and long-term energy-saving targets,Economic needs,but also in the context of capacity to effectively complete the regional energy-saving targets is also the decomposition of the program design needs to balance.