As the economic globalization develops,the role of international direct investment has become more and more important in the economy development.The recent trend of international direct investment has turned from developed counties to the middle-income countries such as east Asia,southeast Asia,Latin America taken into consideration that most developed countries have already achieve their production potential and the industries are now overwhelmed with capital.After the implementation of the ’New Silk Economic Zone’plan,the United States has leaded the ’Trans-pacific Partnership Agreement’(TPP).And Russian proposed to carry out the strategy of "Eurasian Economic Union".In 2013,China proposed ’the Belt and Road Initiative as an important strategy in this new era of globalization.It is an important component of China’s Going Aboard strategy,and it would strengthen the utilization of international elements,transfer the superfluous production capacity in those leading and mature industries.The Belt and Road Initiative also plays an important role in promoting the exchange and cooperation with the countries along the Belt and Road area,and achieving the goal of win-win cooperation.The investment to the countries in the area is the core power of the construction of Belt and Road,it would stimulus the economic development,technological progress and industrial development of the home country and the host country.With the improvement of industrial competitiveness and the ability of investment.China has become a net exporter of capital in 2014.This fact shows that China has entered a new period of foreign investment.On the other hand,the countries along the Belt and Road have obvious differences in geographical features,resource endowment,economic power,income level,industrial foundation and investment environment.Direct investment will face many challenges and problems.So it is of vital importance to invest the appropriate industries in order to upgrade domestic industries and meet the demand of industrial development in host countries with so many factors to be evaluated.This study will try to propose a method to find optimal solution.The study will focus on the theme of industry selection of China’s investment in the countries along the Belt and Road;the content can generally divided into seven chapters.Chapter one is introduction,firstly gives a simple background review of the Belt and Road strategy and the situation China faced when the Belt and Road strategy is put forward,this part shows the theoretic necessity and practical necessity of the study,the research value of this thesis lies in the thorough analysis of influence factors about foreign direct investment industry selection,and provides operational advice to further expand the Belt and Road direct investment;The deficiency of the study is that the data of countries involved in Belt and Road is not all complete;data missing may have negative effect on the precision of some conclusion.Secondly Followed the literature review,in this part the articles about foreign direct investment industry selection,industrial upgrading and the study of the countries along the Belt and Road investment both at home and abroad are reviewed in detail to form the innovative Points of this study,and the research content,research ideas and research methods and paths are presented.Chapter two defines the key concept of the Belt and Road,foreign direct investment,industrial upgrading and other research objects.Then the related theory of foreign direct and the influence factors&mechanism analysis about foreign direct investment decisions on home country and host country investment and industry selection is introduced.This part lays a theoretical foundation for empirical analysis.Chapter three is the actuality studies,the analysis of current invest situation,industrial foundation,investment environment from China to belt and road countries are processed from the aspect of regional distribution,industrial structure and investment environment.And based on the existing research and the importance of each country’s geographical position,the countries along the Belt and Road are divided into ’the core area’,’the extension area’ and ’the radiate zone’.The feature of industrial development and the demand of investment industry in each area are analyzed.And a one-way quantitative investigation is studied on the effect of each factor to the industrial selection.Chapter Four and Chapter Five are the empirical research parts.Based on the basic logic and idea of empirical research,Chapter Four test industry selection of foreign direct investment in home country.Based on the time series data on China and the 65 countries along the Belt and Road from 2003 to 2014 and the world development model of Ciannelli,the effect of industrial structure upgrading on the foreign direct investment in countries along the Belt and Road is tested.The result shows that the scale of investment,the investment growth on the priority countries and the improvement of host countries’ national position can promote China’s industrial structure upgrading.And it is also affected by factors like national population,income level,attracting foreign investment,import and export.Based on the panel data of China and 65 countries along the Belt and Road,Using fixed effect model,Chapter Five tests the relationship between the industrial selection of foreign direct investment and the market elements,the resources elements,the technical elements and the strategy elements.The result shows that the market elements,the technical elements and strategy elements have a positive relationship with industrial structure in the home country.From the influence degree,the sequence is strategic elements stronger than technological elements stronger than market elements,and the effect of resource elements is not significant.Chapter six is qualitative analysis followed chapter four and five.First,based on the empirical results,the benchmark and principles of investment industrial selection in the Belt and Road is put forward.Then combined with the income level in the Belt and Road,a mechanism of"income level-industrial selection" is established to discuss the development stage in order to propose the idea of investment industrial selection.Chapter 7 is the countermeasure analysis.Based on the conclusion of empirical and qualitative analysis,targeted suggestion on foreign direct investment selection for countries in different area is put forward. |