Spatial Econometric Analysis Of The Differences Of Regional Logistics Economic Development

Real economy is the economic activities which produce products using resources. Fictitious economy, also called roundabout production, is the economic activities which use resources but not produce product. The reason why fictitious economy can exist in the economic system is that it can change resource allocation efficiency of the economic system. Financial economy is one of the typical fictitious economies in the economic system. Logistics economy in the economic system is the economic activities which use resources but barely produce product (Main production is displacement product). Its characteristics are very similar to the fictitious or roundabout economy. The main function of logistics economy is also to change resource allocation efficiency of the economic system. Not only does the specialized production bring high efficiency of production activities, but also bring increased transaction costs and decreasing transaction efficiency. Developing logistics economy is an important way to promote the development of economic system toward meticulous division of labor and specialized high efficiency by improving transaction efficiency and reducing transaction costs especially for different spatial region in one economic system. This article focus on how the logistics economic development of different spatial regions in one economic system is; whether and how the logistics economic development interact, that is spillover effect and convergence of logistics economic development of different spatial regions in one economic system; This article also focus on what the influencing factors about the logistics economic development of different spatial regions is, that is what caused the difference of logistics economic development in different spatial regions.This article launches according to the following thoughts:Firstly, we should definite several important concepts in this article, such as the development level of regional logistics economy, spillover effect and spatial effect. Then we should expound and analyze some key methods and theories, such as input-output analysis, the infra-marginal analysis of new classical economics, measurement method, and spatial econometric analysis and so on. Secondly, this paper makes two empirical researches on logistics economy:(1) Taking spatial economy subsystem of economy system for object, this article researches that the development of logistics economy between spatial economy subsystem can improve the network efficiency of traffic, reduce transaction costs, improve transaction efficiency and then promote the development of specialization and division of labor. (2) This part analyzes the spatial effect on the relationship between provincial logistics cost and CPI (Consumer Price Index) and then brings out the theme of this article, which is the many aspects of spatial relationship of the different spatial regional (provincial) logistics economic development in our mainland economic system. Thirdly, using the theory of economic system analysis, we can analyze the inputs, activities and outputs of logistics economic system, construct the index system about measuring the level of logistics economic development and the corresponding measure model, and then measure the level of China's provincial logistics economic development. Fourthly, we should analyze the spatial effect of China's provincial logistics economic development. It's composed by two contents:the one is analyzing the spatial spillover effect of provincial logistics economy, discussing about the existence and situation of spatial spillover effect. The other one is studying on the difference of China's provincial logistics economic development and finding whether there exists convergence. Fifthly, by using the theory of economic elasticity and the method of spatial econometric analysis, this article researches the factors influenced China's provincial logistics economic development and does relevant analysis.According to the above thought, after carefully and particularly research, we get conclusion as follows:Firstly, using the economic system method, analyzing input, activities, output and the mutual relationship between logistics economic system and another national economic system, this paper construct a index system measuring the level of China's provincial logistics economic development which include input, activities, output, and industrial relationship; Applying dynamic factor analysis which could make dynamic evaluation to inter-temporal variation of all the index and subject, we can construct measurement model about the level of China's provincial logistics economic development. Couple the two, this paper measures the logistics economic development level of China's 30 provinces, cities and autonomous regions (for data reasons, except Tibet) from 1997 to 2011. From the dynamic perspective in this time, China's provincial logistics economic development has absolutely regional characteristics. There are seven regions such as Guangdong and Shandong etc that basically showed rising trend year by year, while other regions showed downtrend of different amplitude.Secondly, using the infra-marginal analysis of new classical economics, the study shows that regional logistics economic development exist spillover effect to economic development of the local region and other regions. After by constructing the spatial econometric model about logistics economic cross-regional spillover effects, collecting the data of China's provincial logistics economy from 1996 to 2012, this article gives the econometric analysis about this model. In the fitting selection of spatial panel-data model, through the test this article finally uses the SLM panel model of both temporal and spatial fixed effect. The result shows that China's provincial logistics economic development has significant positive influence to local economic development from 1996 to 2012, the impact of local logistics economic development on local economic growth is far greater than the impact of neighboring provincial logistics economic development on local economic growth, that is, the local effect of logistics economic development far exceeds trans-regional spillover effect.Thirdly, studying on differences and convergence about China's provincial logistics economic development from 1996-2012, the result shows that the absolute difference of China's provincial logistics economic development level presents the continued growth trend in general, the expansion of absolute difference is moderate rather than accelerating, and it starts to slow down after 2006. The a convergence of China's provincial logistics economic development possesses the periodicity and volatility, it rose slightly before 2004, and then declines rapidly in a fluctuating stage. After by applying spatial econometric model with constant coefficient and varying coefficient to study the ? convergence of China's provincial logistics economic development, the result shows that, in the seventeen years, China's provincial regionally logistics economic development exists absolute ? convergence, which is that, the province which has the lower logistics economy development level has the faster logistics economic growth than the province which has the higher logistics economy development level at the beginning of the period. But the convergence exists significant difference in the Western, Central and Eastern, the Western is the fastest, the Central is slower, and the Eastern is the slowest.Fourthly, applying the theory of economic elasticity, defining the concept of logistics economic elasticity, giving the calculation method of the logistics economic elasticity, analyzing the implicit function model and the explicit function model of the logistics economic elasticity, and then we can analyze the method and model by spatial panel data. Finally, we estimate the elasticity-analysis model including the factors which influence our country's provincial regionally logistics economic development. The result shows that the output level of China's provincial logistics economy, also called the added value of logistics industry, cannot significantly interprets the development level of China's provincial logistics economy. This exactly illustrates the fictitiousness and comprehensiveness of logistics economic activities. In these influencing factors, the labor's influencing elasticity is greater than the capital's, which means at least in the period of this article studied, China's provincial logistics economy is firstly restrained by labor rather than capital.